What would save this offseason?

[El Gordo]

323 ABs in 2011- 8 HRs, 105 Ks. What an upgrade.

I'm not sure you understand how baseball works. We got him for about 400PA as a LH DH platoon. Those numbers would be fine for that, particulaly the .340 OBP.

[BaltimoreTerp]

323 ABs in 2011- 8 HRs, 105 Ks. What an upgrade.

Guerrero got 562 at-bats last season, with 13 homers and a .733 OPS. Multiply Betemit's numbers to the same number of at-bats and you get 14 home runs and a .795 OPS.

So yes, it is an upgrade.

[Orioles fanatic]

"What would save this offseason? "

Simply put : A miracle

[BaltimoreTerp]

Also, despite your complaining about strikeouts, if you multiply their plate appearances and outs made out, Betemit made 27 fewer outs than Guerrero did. That's an entire game that Betemit did more with by getting hits and homers and walks (he walked more than twice as much as Guerrero did in 140 fewer PAs). He hits fewer ground balls, so he is less likely to hit into double plays (he hit into the equivalent of fewer than half of Guerrero's 23).

[hoosiers]

I am not unhappy with the offseason so far, but one of the following would raise hopes a bit for the current/future of the franchise:

- news that BRob was healthy and expected to be productive

- signing Soler

- picking up above average player in salary dump a la Hardy

- news that two of our non-Bundy/Machado/Schoop prospects were expected to take major step forwards in 2012

[Flosman]

I am leaning towards hiring KLaw to keep DD on track. As a twist all communication between the two would be done on KLaw's blog and twitter account

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I'm not sure you understand how baseball works. We got him for about 400PA as a LH DH platoon. Those numbers would be fine for that, particulaly the .340 OBP.

You're assuming he replicates those numbers in a division with better pitching, and in a lineup with less production/protection around him. I'm not. In 421 PAs at the AAA level between 2009 and 2010, he hit .248 with 96 Ks and a .311 OBP. He's just as likely to regress to that type of performance as he is to replicate his Major League production from 2010/2011. And considering that he was forced to sign a contract with the Baltimore Orioles in late January, a lot of other teams apparently felt the same way. He probably would have been a better fit with the Yankees as a part-time DH/UIF but they weren't exactly chomping at the bit to sign him.

Also, despite your complaining about strikeouts, if you multiply their plate appearances and outs made out, Betemit made 27 fewer outs than Guerrero did. That's an entire game that Betemit did more with by getting hits and homers and walks (he walked more than twice as much as Guerrero did in 140 fewer PAs). He hits fewer ground balls, so he is less likely to hit into double plays (he hit into the equivalent of fewer than half of Guerrero's 23).

And if you multiply his ABs to match Vlad's, you're looking at around 150-160 Ks. Strikeouts are even more useless than ground balls, and are usually more destructive to a team's offense than ground balls(which do sometimes become hits, get bobbled and become errors, or at least advance runners and not just GDPs). Strikeouts are free outs. They accomplish nothing, maybe less. If he's an upgrade, it's only because he's not as slow as Vlad, one of the slowest runners in all of baseball at this point in his career, and can turn some of those GDPs and ground outs into Fielder's Choices and infield hits. But with the enormous increase in Ks, I doubt that the difference will be all that meaningful. My whole point is that we could have added OBP somewhere without increasing our team strike out totals by another 100 or more.

And I really don't understand this "strike outs don't matter that much" nonsense. Last year, the Nationals led the Majors in Ks with 1323. The Orioles had 1120. This offseason, we've added at least another 200 or so by signing Betemit and resigning ourselves to using Chris Davis and Nolan Reimold as everyday players, making a "top" 5 in Ks finish almost inevitable. Look at the top 5 MLB teams in terms of strikeouts from last year, and you'll see that they all have something in common: losing records. Not really a coincidence. I mean, there are exceptions of course, not every team that strikes out a ton is automatically a loser- for instance, the Braves(#6) and Diamondbacks(#8), but those teams have something that we don't: excellent pitching. In fact, our pitching is kind of awful. It could be better this year, but I doubt that it takes that much of a step forward because our defense is going to be every bit as awful as it was last year, and the offense is probably going to be even worse.

The other major difference between those teams and the Orioles though, is that we play in the AL East a.k.a. probably the toughest division in all of pro sports(three 90 games winners last season). Every other team in our division either got better or at the very least didn't get worse. We are at least as bad as we were last year, but more than likely worse.

The Orioles are going to get eaten alive. I really don't think 100 losses is out of the question, especially if injuries are as much of an issue as they always are.

[luismatos4prez]

The Orioles are going to get eaten alive. I really don't think 100 losses is out of the question, especially if injuries are as big an issue as they always are.

The thing you're overlooking is improvement from the players we've kept.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

The thing you're overlooking is improvement from the players we've kept.

They probably will improve some but I just don't think that Jones, Weiters, Markakis, and the young pitchers are going to improve enough to offset the black hole of wasted ABs that Reynolds, Davis, Betemit, and Reimold are going to create by striking out a third of the time.

[luismatos4prez]

They probably will improve some but I just don't think that Jones, Weiters, Markakis, and the young pitchers are going to improve enough to offset the black hole of wasted ABs that Reynolds, Davis, Betemit, and Reimold are going to create by striking out a third of the time.

I don't see why you're so down on Reynolds to begin with. He may strike out a lot, but he also hit for an OPS of .806 last year. That's a very strong number. Is the fact that when he isn't getting on base, he's often striking out as opposed to grounding out or flying out really relevant. Not very.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I don't see why you're so down on Reynolds to begin with. He may strike out a lot, but he also hit for an OPS of .806 last year. That's a very strong number. Is the fact that when he isn't getting on base, he's often striking out as opposed to grounding out or flying out really relevant. Not very.

On a decent team where the players around him can help make up for some of his deficiencies, he would be a nice complimentary piece. On our team though, his defense and his constant striking out serve more of a negative purpose than a positive one. But that's just my opinion.

[OsLuvrInKy]

On a decent team where the players around him can help make up for some of his deficiencies, he would be a nice complimentary piece. On our team though, his defense and his constant striking out serve more of a negative purpose than a positive one. But that's just my opinion.

"Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer." - Ted Williams

Mark Reynolds 2011 OBP .323

I don't care what ya say, an out is an out. If he makes that pitcher throw 5-9 pitches to get him out it was a good out.

[BaltimoreTerp]

And I really don't understand this "strike outs don't matter that much" nonsense. Last year, the Nationals led the Majors in Ks with 1323. The Orioles had 1120. This offseason, we've added at least another 200 or so by signing Betemit and resigning ourselves to using Chris Davis and Nolan Reimold as everyday players, making a "top" 5 in Ks finish almost inevitable. Look at the top 5 MLB teams in terms of strikeouts from last year, and you'll see that they all have something in common: losing records. Not really a coincidence. I mean, there are exceptions of course, not every team that strikes out a ton is automatically a loser- for instance, the Braves(#6) and Diamondbacks(#8), but those teams have something that we don't: excellent pitching. In fact, our pitching is kind of awful. It could be better this year, but I doubt that it takes that much of a step forward because our defense is going to be every bit as awful as it was last year, and the offense is probably going to be even worse.

The Orioles were below the MLB average for strikeouts, and four playoff teams had more. So nice try getting cute with cherry-picking the numbers.

How exactly do you think the offense is going to be worse? Because guys are K-ing for one out instead of grounding into double plays?

And I'd like to know what you think about the fact that if you gave Betemit Guerrero's PAs last season, he would have made an entire game's worth of outs less than Vladdy. Since baseball offense is about scoring runs and avoiding outs, after all.

[BaltimoreTerp]

On a decent team where the players around him can help make up for some of his deficiencies, he would be a nice complimentary piece. On our team though, his defense and his constant striking out serve more of a negative purpose than a positive one. But that's just my opinion.

Right, it is your opinion. And it isn't born out by any facts.

[fish113d]

If we can add some IF/OF depth...a Wilson Betemit-type...

If we can add a few bullpen guys who are unproven in the MLs...

I think THAT WOULD....Oh wait...we did that? And no one thinks we'll be any good? Hmmm.....:rofl: