Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

[Tony-OH]

Agreed and I am inclined to agree with DD in that line of thinking and as far as this trade goes I think many on here are overvaluing are guy and just aren't giving this trade a fair shake, here's why......

1. Guthrie basically had little to no value for this team going forward in terms of adding long term pieces to this team. He has one year left and given that DD stated there were no LT pieces offered now I see no reason to believe Guthrie is gonna blow the league away this year enough to up his value at the trade deadline to get us anything worth while....People just don't realize the league has really transformed into a pitchers game the last two years and a guy like Guthrie just doesn't hve the value he did 3 years ago...MOR starters are everywhere now just look at what E-Jax got as a FA...He is a much better pitcher than Guthrie who is being paid about the same contract on the open market and to thing Guthrie will get us anything with LT value is just not logical.

2. Hammel has had two years in the last three better than Guthrie has EVER had...He is a hard thrower who has two years left of team control and if he can get back to his xfip/fip of 2009/2010 he has a much better chance at getting us a LT piece than Guthrie did...Guthrie just has no surplus value at this point and Hammel does...Hammel gives us some chance of getting better, it's a risk, but this team needs to take risks to get better (which is something we hammer them about all the time).

3. Lindstrom is not a throw in by any means....The last two years he would have been one of our best RP and is under control for the next 2 years....Once again he has a chance to turn into a LT piece at the deadline or next offseason something Guthrie just won't do....He is a flame thrower who has had success in the Majors with a 3 something xfip/fip the last two years....That has alot of value at the deadline for sure if he pitches like he has in the past.

4. Guthrie is on the wrong side of thirty in his last year for a team who won't contend and about to go through a messy hearing which could hurt us with him being the Vet leader to the young guys...I know I don't want a pissed Guthrie in the clubhouse all year thats for sure. There just isn't much upside in keeping this guy around.

5. Hammel has been a 4 win pitcher two of the last three years...That is Elite type production and another 4 win season and suddenly he gets us a nice package of prospects next offseason and you still have a very good reliever in Lindstrom plus some LT prospects.

6. Lindstrom had a HR/9 of .5 last year in Coors field last year and has shown throughout his career his ability to prevent HR's and that is the biggest keys to success in pitching at OPACY.

All in all I really think this was a good roll of the dice by DD...At best you get a great two years out of these guys with 5+ WAR from them or you get a koji or sherrill trade package from Lindstrom and one of E-jax many trade packages type package for Hammel....At worst these guys flame out and you cut your loses and next offseason your in the same spot you would have been with guthrie, who I wouldn't want us to resign anyway...

I see alot of potential LT upside and virtually no LT downside, while there is potential downside for this upcoming season I think it is very mitagated by the potential rewards....This is the typical high upside move this team never makes and which is a nessacary move for this team to get out of the basement...Guthrie should have been traded 3 years ago, he wasn't, so DD pulled a move which could give us our best SP and RP for next year.

This is a B+ with a downside of a C grade and an upside of an A...........

I'll be expecting some comments and Rep......Thats a joke by the way.

Thanks for visiting us Dan. Hope you can turn around this franchise because that's about the cheeriest way of looking at that trade. You forgot to mention we just threw away a 1st round supplemental pick as well by trading Guthrie. You also failed to mention that Hammel has never pitched more than 177.2 innings in any season and only has one season ever where he was a starter an entire season. Guthrie on the other hand has thrown 200 or more inning the last three season over 190 the year before that three year stretch. Guthrie has pitched in the hardest Division in baseball with some of the worse fielding teams in all of baseball behind him. Hammel is not going to be facing a pitcher every nine batters and pitching in New York and Boston is going to be a lot tougher than San Diego and Los Angeles.

I hope you are right, but when your only hope is for Hammel to return to being a 4.81 ERA pitcher (2010 ERA) that's not a ton of upside. Alfredo Simon throws hard too. I don't want him in my rotation in the AL East. As for Lindstrom, he seems like s decent middle reliever, but he's being paid $3.6 million. That's going to go over well with your closer (JJ) who is making $2.63 million next year.

[Sports Guy]

This trade has upside, downside and no side.

But was it neccassary?

Just keep him and see where things stand in July...or even June. Trade him early if you can.

[ChaosLex]

Thanks for visiting us Dan. Hope you can turn around this franchise because that's about the cheeriest way of looking at that trade. You forgot to mention we just threw away a 1st round supplemental pick as well by trading Guthrie. You also failed to mention that Hammel has never pitched more than 177.2 innings in any season and only has one season ever where he was a starter an entire season. Guthrie on the other hand has thrown 200 or more inning the last three season over 190 the year before that three year stretch. Guthrie has pitched in the hardest Division in baseball with some of the worse fielding teams in all of baseball behind him. Hammel is not going to be facing a pitcher every nine batters and pitching in New York and Boston is going to be a lot tougher than San Diego and Los Angeles.

I hope you are right, but when your only hope is for Hammel to return to being a 4.81 ERA pitcher (2010 ERA) that's not a ton of upside. Alfredo Simon throws hard too. I don't want him in my rotation in the AL East. As for Lindstrom, he seems like s decent middle reliever, but he's being paid $3.6 million. That's going to go over well with your closer (JJ) who is making $2.63 million next year.

I could be wrong, but I thought under the new CBA we wouldn't be entitled to a supplemental pick.

[byrdz]

This trade has upside, downside and no side.

But was it neccassary?

Just keep him and see where things stand in July...or even June. Trade him early if you can.

This is strange coming from someone who has wanted Guthrie traded seemingly since we got him from the Indians.

[Sports Guy]

I could be wrong, but I thought under the new CBA we wouldn't be entitled to a supplemental pick.

Sure we can....It depends on how he would have pitched though.

Now, if we traded him this July, the team getting him wouldn't get a pick.

[Sports Guy]

This is strange coming from someone who has wanted Guthrie traded seemingly since we got him from the Indians.

And as it turned out, I was right that he should have been dealt at almost any point in the past(outside of his 5 ERA season).

However, at this point, if this is all you could get, hold onto him and see what happens the first few months.

If Hammel can get back to where he was, we might get lucky. Same with Lindstrom. Of course, while he was good last year, he has been very mediocre in the past...that's what relievers like him do. they suck sometimes and are good others.

[Barnaby Graves]

This is strange coming from someone who has wanted Guthrie traded seemingly since we got him from the Indians.

You don't suppose the return factors into the desirability of a trade, do you?

[Lucky Jim]

Don't you think it's possible that this isn't necessarily an indication on DD's philosophy, or view on risks as you put it, but rather an indication of DD doing his best to operate within the guidelines that Buck and PA have mandated (IE: Trying to win now while also building toward the future). In other words, he could justify trading Guthrie because he was able to save a little money and also get very similar production.

Of course that is all speculative, but I think it's possible.

Sure, it's possible. But they didn't really save any money and traded a popular player.

[Lucky Jim]

I could be wrong, but I thought under the new CBA we wouldn't be entitled to a supplemental pick.

If he signed for somewhere around $12-13m next year we would, from what I understand. Seems unlikely.

[Tony-OH]

And as it turned out, I was right that he should have been dealt at almost any point in the past(outside of his 5 ERA season).

However, at this point, if this is all you could get, hold onto him and see what happens the first few months.

If Hammel can get back to where he was, we might get lucky. Same with Lindstrom. Of course, while he was good last year, he has been very mediocre in the past...that's what relievers like him do. they suck sometimes and are good others.

Such a simple point missed by so many. Ashamed really. Of course considering we were hearing rumors of the orioles interest in Kyle McClellan, maybe we should be happy with trade that comes out as a wash.

[Tony-OH]

If he signed for somewhere around $12-13m next year we would, from what I understand. Seems unlikely.

I don't understand. I know the CBA changed, but I didn't hear that it changed for the losing team based off of salary. I know a team that trades for a guy in his walk year doesn't get a compensation pick, but what are you hearing about salary?

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Sure we can....It depends on how he would have pitched though.

Now, if we traded him this July, the team getting him wouldn't get a pick.

I was under the impression we would have to have offered him upward to $12.4m next offseason to receive the pick (average of top 125 MLB players). Is he going to get that?

[Lucky Jim]

I don't understand. I know the CBA changed, but I didn't hear that it changed for the losing team based off of salary. I know a team that trades for a guy in his walk year doesn't get a compensation pick, but what are you hearing about salary?

Ha. Tony, I misstated. Multi-tasking. I noted it correctly, earlier but flubbed it now that I'm eating, working and posting.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

I don't understand. I know the CBA changed, but I didn't hear that it changed for the losing team based off of salary. I know a team that trades for a guy in his walk year doesn't get a compensation pick, but what are you hearing about salary?

The Elias system of ranking free agents as Type A, Type B or Type C (unranked) will no longer be used to gauge compensation for the teams losing free agents.

The only way a team will receive compensation for losing a free agent is if they make a guaranteed qualifying one year contract equal to the average salary of the top 125 highest paid players. This is approximately $12.4M for this year.

http://mlbreports.com/2011/11/25/cba/

[Tony-OH]

http://mlbreports.com/2011/11/25/cba/

Thanks. It will be interesting to see what Guthrie can command on the open market if he has a good year. I agree though that $12.4 million a year is probably a bit high.