Pessimism

[24fps]

This is by far the most downbeat I've ever seen the board as a whole.

I'm not too worried about Britton, but if the talent locked up in Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta can't be significantly realized this season, I'll probably be joining the chorus.

[LookinUp]

But in just the last say 2 years I'd say from a very unscientific observation that I'd spitball OH went from 80/20 (Positive-Negative) to 40/60.

I joined this site around when AM came on board. Look at my user name. I went from the 80% optimistic to the 60+% pessimistic.

I've really never felt this way going into spring training. My epectations are so low that I'm beginnning to think I'm too pessimistic. In a way, I think this coming season is a necessary break from the past. Sure, we're pinning our hopes on trading Jones and Chris Davis becoming Carlos Pena, but the false hope in unproven players seems to be gone. In other words, realism seems to have come to the O's as much as it has come to the fanbase. Of course, DD's out there saying we'll be .500, so what do I know?

I really just hope that the plan continues in earnest in July. That Jones, Hardy, JJ and Reynolds get traded, and maybe we get real-realism, and we start a real rebuild.

[markdublya]

I agree Moose. I haven't been this cynical since analyzing the junk we were getting in the purge of 2000. I am ALWAYS more excited than this in February.

[Guest rochester]

meh...

P&C's reporting soon.

warmer weather coming.

sun.

summer coming.

watching in the stands with the warm and smells of hot dogs and popcorn.

beer.

sun doesn't set until 8:30 plus.

Before you call it pessimism or realism think about the fact that there will be no stress of important games, no stress over underachieving, no stress over getting tickets, no stress of having others "in your space" because the stadium is packed (Yanks and Sawx games excluded), no stress because you have to park miles away, no stress because you drank too much beer and the line to the men's room is 10 minutes when you only have 3 minutes before....

I can think of one or two things more stressful than the Baltimore Orioles... am I po'd? Yea but...

Anyway, that is my way of dealing with it - some need to put in writing how pessimistic they are as a vent (which is good) and I think Moose did a fine job; some rant and rave because...they just do...

P.S. I do not have nor endorse any sort of "Kumbaya" moments at all... frankly, I find them disingenuous at best

[Moose Milligan]

Well, yea, I was assuming our Bill and Ted time machine phone booth plunked us 2012ers down in some weird 1989 that had already invented the intertubes.

I think it'd be more hysterical to watch 1989 SG flounder away with primitive stats and an awesome mullet rather than have awesome stats available at his fingertips to be a Billy Beane type.

[NewMarketSean]

The difference between 1989 and 2012 is that the other 4 teams in our division are head and shoulders in front of us in pretty much every aspect of being a professional baseball team and have been for a long time.

Back in '89 the Jays beat us by 1 game, the Red Sox won 83 games, the Yankees, 74 and the Rays were 9 years away from being a baseball team. All the other teams in our division were in the midst of decades long stretches of futility.

Those were the days when a grouping of players similar to the Cleveland Indians team from Major League could put together a freak-season and come within a game of the post-season.

That kind of thing doesn't happen any more and if it does, it happens much more infrequently.

[Pedro Cerrano]

The difference between 1989 and 2012 is that the other 4 teams in our division are head and shoulders in front of us in pretty much every aspect of being a professional baseball team and have been for a long time.

Back in '89 the Jays beat us by 1 game, the Red Sox won 83 games, the Yankees, 74 and the Rays were 9 years away from being a baseball team. All the other teams in our division were in the midst of decades long stretches of futility.

Those were the days when a grouping of players similar to the Cleveland Indians team from Major League could put together a freak-season and come within a game of the post-season.

That kind of thing doesn't happen any more and if it does, it happens much more infrequently.

I dunno, I feel like every year or so there is a team or teams that seemingly come out of nowhere and do well. Nobody thought the Rays would emerge as an elite team befoer it happened. The Rangers, before they made back to back World Series, were always an all-hit no-pitch team. Did anyone think the world champion SF Giants had enough sticks to win it all?

[Pedro Cerrano]

I think it'd be more hysterical to watch 1989 SG flounder away with primitive stats and an awesome mullet rather than have awesome stats available at his fingertips to be a Billy Beane type.

To see what that would have been like just pull up any conversation with OldFan before he got the boot. It's like that dude was literally transplanted from 1975. "Who cares if a guy walks a lot? Walks don't get you RBIs!"

[Slappy]

I'm a little surprised at the pessimism. It's almost fatalistic at this point - "everything is doomed to fail". If you think, like many did, that the organization's biggest failures were in international, player development, conditioning, and statistical analysis, you have to be encouraged at the moves made by DD. And, as someone started a thread on, from a team perspective this bunch should be better at a lot of important things than any team we've put out there in the past several years, particularly pitching.

[NewMarketSean]

I dunno, I feel like every year or so there is a team or teams that seemingly come out of nowhere and do well. Nobody thought the Rays would emerge as an elite team befoer it happened. The Rangers, before they made back to back World Series, were always an all-hit no-pitch team. Did anyone think the world champion SF Giants had enough sticks to win it all?

Well, outside of the Rays, which have become a sustained winning team, these surprise winners come from divisions out of the AL East, and usually in the NL.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think that's true. I think the long term future of this club is on the shoulders of the front office, and how successful they are at building a real scouting/analysis/acquisition/development infrastructure. If it's really going to be 2-3 years (or more) until they're competitive only a handful of current players will be key to those teams (Wieters, Machado, Bundy, maybe Schoop). I think the only way I'm truly disappointed by 2012 is if those four have really down years.

If the Orioles' core MLB players all suck this year the disappointment just wraps around to the other side and becomes a positive. They'll win 60 games, get better draft picks, and more dollars allocated to them under the new CBA to sign amateurs. Not that any of it matters without a real organization to develop them in...

The next 3-6 years, its obviously a true statement. The 4 you mentioned, along with Matusz, Arrieta and Britton. Those are the players that hold this organization in their hands for next several years.

[NewMarketSean]

I'm a little surprised at the pessimism. It's almost fatalistic at this point - "everything is doomed to fail". If you think, like many did, that the organization's biggest failures were in international, player development, conditioning, and statistical analysis, you have to be encouraged at the moves made by DD. And, as someone started a thread on, from a team perspective this bunch should be better at a lot of important things than any team we've put out there in the past several years, particularly pitching.

We feel this way because we have been shown that it happens time and time again. Nothing that DD has done to the MLB roster gives anyone confidence that it will not happen in 2012.

Yeah, some steps have been taken internationally but it also came with the Orioles being banned from Korea for signing what sounds like a midget with a pea-shooter arm.

That leaves the cast of Cocoon filling out our FO and a NZ softball player as the big positives from the offseason.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm a little surprised at the pessimism. It's almost fatalistic at this point - "everything is doomed to fail". If you think, like many did, that the organization's biggest failures were in international, player development, conditioning, and statistical analysis, you have to be encouraged at the moves made by DD. And, as someone started a thread on, from a team perspective this bunch should be better at a lot of important things than any team we've put out there in the past several years, particularly pitching.

Pump your brakes. This team will not be better at pitching.

K, it might. Matusz can't be as bad as he was (or can he?) and Arrieta is healthy. Tillman, whatever. The Asian invasion is unknown.

They MIGHT be better...but they'll probably end up sucking slightly less.

[millertime]

Seems like every year,people are saying this is not the year we expect to compete. What year do we expect to compete and always say now is not the time to sign anyone good because we are not going to compete this year.

This. A million times this! For a minute, I thought I was the only person who thought this way.

[Slappy]

We feel this way because we have been shown that it happens time and time again. Nothing that DD has done to the MLB roster gives anyone confidence that it will not happen in 2012.

Yeah, some steps have been taken internationally but it also came with the Orioles being banned from Korea for signing what sounds like a midget with a pea-shooter arm.

That leaves the cast of Cocoon filling out our FO and a NZ softball player as the big positives from the offseason.

I guess it depends on what you focus on. The Korea thing doesn't bother me - baseball is a world game and the KBL will realize that eventually. It's a petty reaction.

I also think the potential impact of Chen and Wada is underestimated. The NPL is no joke, most consider the level of competition just below MLB. We've seen several Japanese players come over and have a major impact for their team. The fact that those two guys play in the O's area of most critical need magnifies their importance.

In fact, at this point, I see no place where we got worse in the offseason. No position players, no pitching slots, not in the minors, not in the front office, not on the payroll, not anywhere.