Is Everyone Really So Depressed?

[LookinUp]

The best thing DD seems to have done this offseason, IMO, is go out of his way to improve conditioning and work ethic in general.

The frustration many of us feel is due to the underperforming cavalry, and that is at least anecdotally tied to work ethic.

It's just hard to get too excited about prospects when we've seen them underperform. If this franchise is ever going to get to a place where we're respectable, we need guys overperforming. We need guys like Bergesen to find that sinker/slider combo he had, even if the odds say he can't. Matusz needs to re-find his mojo. etc., etc.

Bad teams will always have good prospects because we're always picking in the top 5/10 of the draft. The important thing will be to find more prospects out of the first round, and to actually develop them into game changers.

DD at least seems to have a plan in that regard, so it's better than nothing.

Other than that, Wilson Betemit...really?

[flashjordnk]

Other than that, Wilson Betemit...really?

I mean honestly, it can't turn out worse than Lee/Vlad right? He's a guy much closer to his prime. He's got a role, and solid splits. I think the Betemit could be an area where the O's improve if used correctly by Buck.

Betemit/Chen/Wada > Lee/Guerrero to me.

I know this year is all about the growth of Britton/Arrieta/Matusz though. And given last year's track record I can fully understand why there isn't as much optimism this year.

[Sports Guy]

I mean honestly, it can't turn out worse than Lee/Vlad right? He's a guy much closer to his prime. He's got a role, and solid splits. I think the Betemit could be an area where the O's improve if used correctly by Buck.

Betemit/Chen/Wada > Lee/Guerrero to me.

I know this year is all about the growth of Britton/Arrieta/Matusz though. And given last year's track record I can fully understand why there isn't as much optimism this year.

You can only say this in hindsight though...and the bottom line is none of those 3 is anything close to a sure thing and only one of them, Chen, has the upside to be much more than an average MLer.

Every year, we seem to say, well this guy has to be better than the guy he replaces, right? And how often has that actually happened and, if it did happen, how much of a difference did it really make?

IE, if we had a -.5 WAR player playing and replaced him with a .3 WAR player, we didn't really improve.

[LookinUp]

I mean honestly, it can't turn out worse than Lee/Vlad right? He's a guy much closer to his prime. He's got a role, and solid splits. I think the Betemit could be an area where the O's improve if used correctly by Buck.

Betemit/Chen/Wada > Lee/Guerrero to me.

I know this year is all about the growth of Britton/Arrieta/Matusz though. And given last year's track record I can fully understand why there isn't as much optimism this year.

Why not mention Hardy and Reynolds form last year?

I don't mind Betemit. He's a fine acquisition. I just mind what he represents.

I'm still holding out hope that DD will find a way to sign a few high-ceiling guys from the DR or Soler or something. I'd rather him spend money there than on this year's team. That, or some really nice trades, is how DD will change the mood from depressed.

I can't speak for everyone, but I'm less depressed about this particular team than I am about the lack of acquisitions, so far, for the future.

[flashjordnk]

You can only say this in hindsight though...and the bottom line is none of those 3 is anything close to a sure thing and only one of them, Chen, has the upside to be much more than an average MLer.

Every year, we seem to say, well this guy has to be better than the guy he replaces, right? And how often has that actually happened and, if it did happen, how much of a difference did it really make?

IE, if we had a -.5 WAR player playing and replaced him with a .3 WAR player, we didn't really improve.

It may be true in hindsight. Vlad came with a boatload of red flags that had to do with not being in Texas and really falling off a cliff in the second half before he came here. Plus he was old. And so was Lee. Also if you look at the dollars invested in these three vs. what we paid to Lee/Vlad I think even without hindsight the better investment would be what we got this offseason.

I like that we didn't bring in guys that were on the cusp of decline. We're taking a flier on these guys in some ways, but I think it's a different future value than Lee/Vlad signings (which were much more rooted in wins/WAR type additions). The long term potential of added value could really pay off with Chen/Wada.

I also like the idea of adding role type guys rather than potential starters Lee/Vlad were brought in to play full time. We're not asking Betemit to do that. And while that might not tickle the fancy of getting people excited, but I think all three of these are really solid additions.

[flashjordnk]

Why not mention Hardy and Reynolds form last year?

...

I can't speak for everyone, but I'm less depressed about this particular team than I am about the lack of acquisitions, so far, for the future.

Name two guys with the same level talent that were available this year for the same price. While Randy Henry (remember him) might have been too much to give up for Eveland, we did have to give up DH to get Reynolds. And Hardy was more luck and timing than anything else. If other moves were made for similar players this year and we missed it, I'd be upset, but I still think Hardy/Reynolds were more about timing than the O's showing they were trying to "win now". DD IMO would have made the same deals, but maybe people disagree with that.

But I'll grant you those two did a lot to add to the excitement long term. And we don't have that. But I didn't include them because I file them in a bit of extenuating circumstance category.

[El Gordo]

You can only say this in hindsight though...and the bottom line is none of those 3 is anything close to a sure thing and only one of them, Chen, has the upside to be much more than an average MLer.

Every year, we seem to say, well this guy has to be better than the guy he replaces, right? And how often has that actually happened and, if it did happen, how much of a difference did it really make?

IE, if we had a -.5 WAR player playing and replaced him with a .3 WAR player, we didn't really improve.

If we did that for all 9 positions we'd improve by 7.2 WAR. That may not be much to you, but I'll take it.

IMO we stand to remain even with last year, or improve, for all but two positions; 1B and SS. And since Hardy was so far above average last year whatever regression he shows won't chnge things much over all. 1B is the real offensive question mark, IMO.

[Fan4Life]

If we did that for all 9 positions we'd improve by 7.2 WAR. That may not be much to you, but I'll take it.

IMO we stanD to remain even withh last year, or improve, for all but two positions; 1B and SS. And since Hardy was so far above average last year whatever regression he shows won't chnge things much over all. 1B is the real offensive question mark, IMO.

Notwithstanding defensive metrics are suspect.

[mikegallo]

I think you are certainly correct that Machado and Bundy have higher prospect ceilings than Matusz had. Whether they will reach their ceilings is an open question.

As to Schoop, I do not think he ranks ahead of where guys like Tillman and Arrieta were considered to be a few years ago. I think it is pretty clear that in February 2009, we had a better farm system than we have right now. We had Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Arrietta, Reimold, Hernandez, Bergesen, Berken, Britton, and several other guys who have since spent some time in the majors.

Which is a good thing because everyone you just mentioned is still around and still can contribute to this team at some point.....If this team didnt promote guys to the majors based on need the last two years our farm would be ranked much higher...

But since they did things look worse from a talent side of things because we had alot of talent that isn't counted as minor league yet hadn't established itself in the maors yet either...

Now I know some have lost there shine a little becuase of lower velocity due to wear n tear/injury/lack of workout commitment but I think basically the talent is still there....With some better confidence and guys just getting more pt they can start to learn how to take their talent and apply it....

Pitching development seems tto be very non-linear and these guys (all were rushed up at some point) just need to take a step back, get up their confidence and then come up and contribute.

Tillman and Arrieta were always guys who were what if guys.....If Tillman and Jake could increase command even with Tillmans decrease in velocity they could fufill there #3/4 potetnial.

B-Mat has a straight fastball that used to sit in the low 90's....He had good years by pitching backwards, commanding his fastball and offspeed stuff, and using his changeup (at least in the Majors) in contrast with his FB to strike guys out.....Last year his velocity on his CH went up and FB went down, he lost cofidence to throw any pitch in any count, which is huge for his style, and had lost his command of everything (I think alot of this part was the mental part of getting lit up) because of some bad luck, SSS and lack of arm strength his season was horrible..

If he can build up that arm strength this spring/offseason and regain the confidence to throw all his pitchs at any time and slightly improve command in the zone, I see no reason why he can't get us 150 major league average innings with a chance to improve upon those numbers next year.....(I see him starting in the Minor this year then coming up before June).

Zach Britton had a good year but I would like to see him in AAA and have him force his way up (since I think he is def one of our 5 best SP I think he should be up rather quick).

Anyway since we have so many in between talent our overall talent picture seems much bleaker than it really is....And so does this teams future/potential....

[mikegallo]

You can only say this in hindsight though...and the bottom line is none of those 3 is anything close to a sure thing and only one of them, Chen, has the upside to be much more than an average MLer.

Every year, we seem to say, well this guy has to be better than the guy he replaces, right? And how often has that actually happened and, if it did happen, how much of a difference did it really make?

IE, if we had a -.5 WAR player playing and replaced him with a .3 WAR player, we didn't really improve.

I think both Wada and Chen have a chance to be above average Major leaguers.....People discount wada because of a high 80s FB but he's a lefty who can command both sides of the plate with deception.....Sounds like above average MLer to me if he can withstand the 180 inning workload (which is a big if). Just look at Mark Buerle? or Tom Glavine.

[Sports Guy]

I think both Wada and Chen have a chance to be above average Major leaguers.....People discount wada because of a high 80s FB but he's a lefty who can command both sides of the plate with deception.....Sounds like above average MLer to me if he can withstand the 180 inning workload (which is a big if). Just look at Mark Buerle? or Tom Glavine.

I could care less about his high 80s fastball. It has very little to do with how I project him out.

I don't mind the minimal gamble taken on him but I am not expecting anything more than a 4.75 ERA over 150 IP.

[Frobby]

I think both Wada and Chen have a chance to be above average Major leaguers.....People discount wada because of a high 80s FB but he's a lefty who can command both sides of the plate with deception.....Sounds like above average MLer to me if he can withstand the 180 inning workload (which is a big if). Just look at Mark Buerle? or Tom Glavine.

I'm with you. These guys should not be judged in advance. They were both outstanding in Japan -- sometimes that translates well over here, and sometimes it doesn't. We'll find out.

[PaulFolk]

Name two guys with the same level talent that were available this year for the same price. While Randy Henry (remember him) might have been too much to give up for Eveland, we did have to give up DH to get Reynolds.

Just to clarify, Randy Henry was traded for Teagarden (along with Miclat). Eveland was acquired for Jarrett Martin and Tyler Henson.

[JanJaap]

I think both Wada and Chen have a chance to be above average Major leaguers.....People discount wada because of a high 80s FB but he's a lefty who can command both sides of the plate with deception.....Sounds like above average MLer to me if he can withstand the 180 inning workload (which is a big if). Just look at Mark Buerle? or Tom Glavine.

According to Britt Ghiroli he has a mid-80s fastball.

Britt

[Can_of_corn]

According to Britt Ghiroli he has a mid-80s fastball.

Britt

His pitch data from the last three seasons.

http://npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=198

Biggest issue I have is the separation between his FB and Change is in the 7-8 MPH range.