Buster Olney on Hamilton to Baltimore

[vab]

Hamilton at $200+ million is just not going to work. Too injury prone and then there's the elephant in the room of his sobriety. Great player but just not the guy for that kind of contract. Especially for a team that's probably not really ready to take that last step into true contention.

[hammonds davis]

What team is ready to take the next step into true contention? What team do you feel he should go to? We can not keep allowing players of this caliber to go to the rangers tigers redsox and yankees. If we do we will keep being away from contention.

[Can_of_corn]

What team is ready to take the next step into true contention? What team do you feel he should go to? We can not keep allowing players of this caliber to go to the rangers tigers redsox and yankees. If we do we will keep being away from contention.

Very few of the "mega-deals" end up producing solid results for the signing teams. Hamilton is relatively old, can't really play CF anymore, has a serious substance abuse issue (he has had two minor relapses since his return to baseball) and is as large an injury risk as any active position player that I can think of.

When you have a limited budget those are all red flags.

[OrioleMagic79]

Hamilton should be fine in Baltimore...since Buck is clean, he won't be tempted by his manager snorting lines of coke in front of him...

[oriolekid]

Unlike, Prince and Tex, Hamilton will stay in Texas. They have the best future with great young prospects, young regulars, and a great hitters park. They also have a lot of money so why would he leave?

[Can_of_corn]

Unlike, Prince and Tex, Hamilton will stay in Texas. They have the best future with great young prospects, young regulars, and a great hitters park. They also have a lot of money so why would he leave?

Main reason I can think of is that Texas knows the risks and won't be willing to spend enough to keep him.

[Slappy]

Unfortunately, it is this: Wait until we actually develop a solid pitching staff. Bundy looks like a huge step toward that along with Britton/Matusz/Arrietta, but it's still no guarantee. Jones is a solid player getting paid like a superstar. It isn't the worst contract, but I would have rather seen him traded. I do not believe Jones is a .900+ OPS guy. I think he's low .800 at best, with average defense. Still solid, still above average, still a key component, but not at the 15+ mil a year range. Wieters still has a lot of upside from my perspective and is the biggest key we should lock up. Markakis is what he is at this point. A solid component, perhaps slightly overpaid. Chen has been a great surprise, and certainly someone to think about extending if he continues to show he can perform, which I'm not sold on believing quite yet. Japanese culture values loyalty a lot more than American culture, so we might be able to extend him when the time comes at a very reasonable rate. Davis is unproven and unfortunately a 1-dimensional player. I'd be surprised to see him much above .800 OPS at the end of the year. Still a decent DH option. Bullpen is great...trade them all at the deadline for prospects unless we are at or near the top. If we're 8 or 9 back (which I'd expect we'll be at that point), pick one to keep (Strop perhaps) and trade the other high performers.

And whatever we do, don't sign big free agents til we arrive, especially ones who are injury or mental issue problems. Still breathing sighs of relief that we dodged the Prince Fielder train-wreck. Looks like we're finally in the air, just let's not crash it with giddy misspent optimism. 2B, 3B, 1B, LF and 5 of 5 SP are still big question marks / room for talent upgrade.

Thanks for the opinion. Personally, I think the prospect game is grossly overrated in baseball thought nowadays. I think its something like 50% of 1st round draft picks ever even *make* the majors, much less become impact players. I also think your strategy carries the very real risk of putting the club into perpetual rebuilding mode, on top of 14 losing seasons. Ignoring the near-term competitiveness of the major league club is no way to run a franchise, despite being extolled as a valid strategy by countless writers. The truth is that it has rarely worked and even when it does you have alienated the fan base.

All this goes double when you are in first place 1/3rd of the way through the season.

[MrOrange82]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19281470/hamilton-likely-to-become-free-agent-but-rangers-may-still-try-to-lock-him-up-first

The Rangers are believed to be willing to offer Hamilton, 31, a big annual salary reflective of his enormous talent. However, the Rangers, a team that has been very much against extremely long deals along the lines of the Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Joey Votto, do not want to give a deal of close to the length of those deals (which were 10, 9 and 10 years) to anyone, much less Hamilton. Hamilton is said to be looking for a contract befitting an "elite" player, which isn't hard to identify these days.

Irrespective of their usual team policy to limit deals for stars, Hamilton carries a particular risk.

The Rangers have assigned a "life coach'' to chaperone and monitor Hamilton, and he's had only two relapses that became public since he's been in Texas. But people who have spoken to the life coaches suggest it is a very demanding job. Hamilton was on the restricted list for failed drug tests before making a comeback with the Reds, who traded him after one year to the Rangers because Reds team doctors questioned whether he'd stay healthy.

Sounds like a bargain waiting to happen.

[Il BuonO]

Love the idea of Hamilton but we havent been so successful in those big names coming in after F robbie

Glenn Davis

Albert Belle

Tejada

sosa

javy lopez

etc

i just dont see PA opening the pocketbooks on an extremely talented yet risky move like hamilton. would love to be wrong

I would say Tejada was pretty successful for us.

Yes, and he left off another couple names that were successful like Alomar and Palmeiro.

[Il BuonO]

Belle opsd over 900 and had a 3.1 war. Tejada had a war of 7.1 5.5 4.2 and finally 2.0. Angelos signed big time free agents in the mid ninties Alomar who produced a 5.0 3.2 and 3.5 war, and Palmerio who had war of 5.2 4.2 2.8 5.9. Now its sad that weve had so few big time free agents come here over the years but we shouldnt be gun shy by failed signings, weve had some quality signings. And this is now not the past the orioles cant dwell on the past they have to build for the now and the future. Hopefully this regime of Buck and Duquette can get that across to Angelos and convince him to once again open up the check book for such a rare talent in Josh Hamilton.

Missed this post.

[whynot38]

Yes, and he left off another couple names that were successful like Alomar and Palmeiro.

was never meant to be all inclusive, just examples - and even if you had a list as long do you think a 50% hit rate is ok?

as i said in my original note - i hope they go for hamilton. it would be awesome to see him in an O's uniform. but given our spotty history, do you really expect PA to put up $150M to get him? I really hope he does -

trying to put some numbers to it - if you payhim $20M/year and look at impact only on attendance and an average fan spends $100 per visit (right? i dont know but representative) then we'd have to increase attendance by about 2500 per game assuming he plays in all 81 games per year for the contract. is this even a reasonable assessment?

- doable?

[Il BuonO]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/olney-on-hamels-hamilton-quentin.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I'm not saying do it or don't. But I am saying that Josh Hamilton is the most talented pure hitter I've ever seen and I never get tired of watching him.

This is how I feel watching him also, but if I'm honest with myself I'm not sure about spending the $ necessary to land him in free agency. I do think the injury history is overblown. He's averaged almost 125 games per year with great production and was restricted for three years. So, I think he has less wear and tear than you might imagine. And remember the games averaged is brought down by the one season when he played only 89. That was the only lingering injury he had. I didn't count the season with the Reds because he was Rule 5.

Nevertheless, even with his issues, nobody I'd rather watch hit a baseball. Incredibly nice guy, too. I met him when I worked the All Star game in Anaheim.

[DrungoHazewood]

Very few of the "mega-deals" end up producing solid results for the signing teams. Hamilton is relatively old, can't really play CF anymore, has a serious substance abuse issue (he has had two minor relapses since his return to baseball) and is as large an injury risk as any active position player that I can think of.

When you have a limited budget those are all red flags.

Absolutely. If Prince was one big red flag because of his weight, Hamilton is that times three or four. Maybe you think about signing him if you're a 90-win team with huge revenue streams. But if I were the O's I don't even think I'd kick the tires. Since coming back from nearly career-ending substance abuse problems he's averaged 107 games a year. So you're probably signing 110 games a year of Josh Hamilton, and 52 games of your 4th or 5th outfielder.

He's been worth 4 WAR a year in his 20s, but everyone knows that next year is that year when he's going to be worth 8 wins again, so you just have to sign him to a 8/200 deal!

[Il BuonO]

Absolutely. If Prince was one big red flag because of his weight, Hamilton is that times three or four. Maybe you think about signing him if you're a 90-win team with huge revenue streams. But if I were the O's I don't even think I'd kick the tires. Since coming back from nearly career-ending substance abuse problems he's averaged 107 games a year. So you're probably signing 110 games a year of Josh Hamilton, and 52 games of your 4th or 5th outfielder.

He's been worth 4 WAR a year in his 20s, but everyone knows that next year is that year when he's going to be worth 8 wins again, so you just have to sign him to a 8/200 deal!

I think that average is brought down by that first year with the Reds. Which is fine, but as a full time player with Texas he's averaged closer to 125 including the year he was hurt.

[EagleOriole]

Just my take, I don't think it would ever happen. But I would take that risk. He is the best player in the game. He is a remarkable story. Heck yeah, I take that risk.