Buster Olney on Hamilton to Baltimore

[brianod]

The Orioles need to draft, develop and sign their own. Hamilton does not fit into the equation. Hamilton is a chance you take if you can afford a 200 million payroll. The Orioles can not and should not devote that kind of resources to a 31 year old who has a substance abuse history and is injury prone. I say pass. I also say pass to all the other big name free agents. Pour money into our minor league system and make it into the envy of baseball. Patience and hard work have always worked better than the mega free agency route.

[wompfump]

Hamilton's not going to be worth his contract. And it has nothing to do with his substance abuse history. That's just silly, to me.

[mcinww0]

The Orioles need to draft, develop and sign their own. Hamilton does not fit into the equation. Hamilton is a chance you take if you can afford a 200 million payroll. The Orioles can not and should not devote that kind of resources to a 31 year old who has a substance abuse history and is injury prone. I say pass. I also say pass to all the other big name free agents. Pour money into our minor league system and make it into the envy of baseball. Patience and hard work have always worked better than the mega free agency route.

Yes and no. We were the envy of baseball when we had all those pitchers coming up who are now treading water in the majors. The pure developmental route takes good scouting and signings, development and luck. I think we have pretty solid scouting outside of Latin America (which is huge) and the development is improving. Nonetheless, the Orioles are not a small market team. Camden Yards sold out for almost a decade straight before all this losing began, and we had the highest payroll in the majors at one point, even under Angelos.

The best route model is to have a great system and be able to sign big free agents, and the two are not mutually exclusive. We're not the Yankees or Red Sox, but we're not the Rays or A's either. I think we could look to the Rangers as a model franchise in both departments; they've signed some big names to go along with a killer farm system.

[GoldGlove21]

The Orioles need to draft, develop and sign their own. Hamilton does not fit into the equation. Hamilton is a chance you take if you can afford a 200 million payroll. The Orioles can not and should not devote that kind of resources to a 31 year old who has a substance abuse history and is injury prone. I say pass. I also say pass to all the other big name free agents. Pour money into our minor league system and make it into the envy of baseball. Patience and hard work have always worked better than the mega free agency route.

So, what you are saying is that we should be taking risks like we did with Markakis, Roberts and most recently Jones instead of taking a large risk to obtain a guy who could win 3 of the next 5 AL MVP's? I think extending Wieters will be a huge risk as he gets closer to free agency (depending on the deal), but people will advocate for it.

The Yankees have not won 1/4 World Series titles because they preached patience. When you get a chance to make huge upgrades to your roster you do so IMO. If Gausan and Bundy pan out than we have a solid chance with Hamilton. If the young pitching fails than we will not compete IMO.

[Pickles]

So, what you are saying is that we should be taking risks like we did with Markakis, Roberts and most recently Jones instead of taking a large risk to obtain a guy who could win 3 of the next 5 AL MVP's?

Yes, I'm advocating those kinds of risks, but it's not fair to compare the Roberts' contract to the Jones' and Markakis' ones. Buying out a guys 20s is not the same thing as buying out his mid 30s.

I think extending Wieters will be a huge risk as he gets closer to free agency (depending on the deal), but people will advocate for it.

As you said, this is highly dependent upon the deal.

The Yankees have not won 1/4 World Series titles because they preached patience. When you get a chance to make huge upgrades to your roster you do so IMO.

And the Rays haven't made the playoffs 3 of the last 4 seasons, soon to be 4 of 5, because they weren't patient.

The fact is, we're not the Yankees. Nor are we the Rays. There's a middle ground there.

If Gausan and Bundy pan out than we have a solid chance with Hamilton. If the young pitching fails than we will not compete IM

If the young pitching fails we won't compete. And if it pans out, we will. Irrespective of Hamilton.

[GoldGlove21]

Since when are the Orioles big bidder for free agents?

Not my money so I'm in favor of it, Hamilton could DH down the road and play a solid LF or 1B for now, which would basically drop Nick Johnson from the roster and take playing time from Riemold and Davis. Replacing Johnson's ABs with Hamiltons would probably be worth 4 wins or so already this year.

Outside of the somewhat recent offers for Tex, Konerko, Fielder, and Victor Martinez? The Orioles have talked money with guys, but I would imagine that an offseason followinga year in which the Orioles looked pretty good, could go a long way towards swaying a player IMO. I think that the Orioles will land a top player in next years class of free agents.

[GoldGlove21]

Yes, I'm advocating those kinds of risks, but it's not fair to compare the Roberts' contract to the Jones' and Markakis' ones. Buying out a guys 20s is not the same thing as buying out his mid 30s.

As you said, this is highly dependent upon the deal.

And the Rays haven't made the playoffs 3 of the last 4 seasons, soon to be 4 of 5, because they weren't patient.

The fact is, we're not the Yankees. Nor are we the Rays. There's a middle ground there.

If the young pitching fails we won't compete. And if it pans out, we will. Irrespective of Hamilton.

When it is all sad and done we will likely pay Markakis $59M for 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Did he deserve that? I am not saying that his contract looks terrible, but it doesn't look like a great deal either.

I just think that if the Orioles are serious about winning in the next couple of years they are going to need to open up the checkbook and land a high upside free agent or two. I doubt that we can do everything via trade and the draft.

[GoldGlove21]

Yes, I'm advocating those kinds of risks, but it's not fair to compare the Roberts' contract to the Jones' and Markakis' ones. Buying out a guys 20s is not the same thing as buying out his mid 30s

As you said, this is highly dependent upon the deal.

And the Rays haven't made the playoffs 3 of the last 4 seasons, soon to be 4 of 5, because they weren't patient.

The fact is, we're not the Yankees. Nor are we the Rays. There's a middle ground there.

If the young pitching fails we won't compete. And if it pans out, we will. Irrespective of Hamilton.

The Rays are a very rare example of how small level teams can compete with payrolls below $60M. They have quality guys that they let walk for compensation, but numerous years of picking the first player in the draft can really help that effort. The Rays are one bad trade or draft away from running into some issues IMO. We are seeing some of this type of rebuild happening with the Nationals. Both teams can pitch, but are not great hitting teams IMO. For what it is worth, I picked the Nats to win the World Series prior to the season and even bet some friends that it would happen so I am not shocked to see them perfroming so well.

The Orioles currently have holes at SP#1, SP#3, 1B and 3B and that is only if we ignore the fact that Reimold, Markakis, and Roberts are injured or working towards returning from an injury. Guys need to step up this season, but I do not expect us to fill all of these premium positions via the draft and trades IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

Hamilton's not going to be worth his contract. And it has nothing to do with his substance abuse history. That's just silly, to me.

The man has relapsed twice since his return to MLB. He was quickly able to right himself in both instances but it would be foolish to think there are no risks present.

[Pickles]

The Rays are a very rare example of how small level teams can compete with payrolls below $60M. They have quality guys that they let walk for compensation, but numerous years of picking the first player in the draft can really help that effort. The Rays are one bad trade or draft away from running into some issues IMO. We are seeing some of this type of rebuild happening with the Nationals. Both teams can pitch, but are not great hitting teams IMO. For what it is worth, I picked the Nats to win the World Series prior to the season and even bet some friends that it would happen so I am not shocked to see them perfroming so well.

The Orioles currently have holes at SP#1, SP#3, 1B and 3B and that is only if we ignore the fact that Reimold, Markakis, and Roberts are injured or working towards returning from an injury. Guys need to step up this season, but I do not expect us to fill all of these premium positions via the draft and trades IMO.

I guess I'm pretty confused by your point:

The O's can't afford the risks of extending thier own, but they MUST carry the risk of signing FAs, which is generally riskier? That seems pretty contradictory.