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Jake Arrieta needs a one-way ticket to Norfolk


oriolefan1035

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Yeah he also learned 17 pounds of muscle and (according to Palmer) improved mechanics <i>and what I've been driving at is that without a physical explanation for Jake's struggles there's no reason to send him down and keep Eveland in the rotation.</i> I heard all this crap about how he DOES have confidence and a winning attitude and he's our bulldog, when he struggles it's because he's lost, but he's not allowed to say he's lost because then he's weak, but if he struggles and he says he's not lost and he's just unlucky, then that means he doesn't get it and he's stupid and thickheaded and <b>you people won't make up your minds.</b>

Barnaby: I see what you're driving at--and I agree people tailor their perceptions of him (and Matusz, and most ballplayers) based on their performance--but I think it's hard to deny, at this point, that there is a physical explanation: his mechanics are bad, his command is bad. It doesn't necessarily show up in the walks--though it did tonight--but his command isn't just an issue with walks, it's apparent when he's trying to put hitters away, it's apparent when he's behind hitters and he throws them very hittable pitchers, it's apparent even when he's getting ahead of hitters and missing the glove by a great deal.

As anyone will tell you, I've been impressed and encouraged by not a few starts of his--including one's in which he put up bad-ish lines--but this wasn't one of them, nor was the most recent start against Cleveland, nor, honestly, was I am impressed with him against Washington, even though the results were better than the outing before (even though, in my opinion, he pitched much better against the Mets). I've far from given up on him, but it seems time to send him down to AAA and re-group mechanically as well as mentally.

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Your precious fip doesn't measure the fact that Jake can't locate anything right now.

Except when he can. Tonight he allowed 3 walks in 3.2 IP, last time it was 2 walks in 3.2 IP, and then before that was 3 walks in 24 innings over 6 starts. I suppose your point was probably closer to "grooving is not locating," but if it's a hitch in his delivery from the stretch that causes him to groove pitches, I think they would've found it by now. If it's some kind of loss of confidence, well then why did anyone think he was a bulldog in the first place?

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his mechanics are bad, his command is bad. It doesn't necessarily show up in the walks--though it did tonight--but his command isn't just an issue with walks, it's apparent when he's trying to put hitters away, it's apparent when he's behind hitters and he throws them very hittable pitchers, it's apparent even when he's getting ahead of hitters and missing the glove by a great deal.

....ahem.

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I agree Eveland is certainly not a long term answer and may in fact end up being worse than Arrieta over the next couple starts (if Jake is indeed sent down). But I'd still rather Jake get sent down to AAA to work on his stuff down there instead of up here and face some weaker lineups so maybe he can get away with a couple of those mistake pitches to the point that he gets his confidence back up to where it needs to be.

Do you disagree that confidence is important for a starting pitcher? Do you really think we can run him out there against the Yankees and Sox when we get back to Division play and expect anything else besides a blood bath?

It just isn't good enough and it is VERY hard to find your form again when you are struggling at the major league level. Professional hitters KNOW you are struggling and are much more aware thanks to advanced scouting that they can sit on your breaking pitches and wail them if you aren't commanding your fastball. Yes that is simplifying things a bit, but Jake is getting pulverized at the major league level to the tune of a 6.13 era and a 1.41 whip.

Also, his last three decent to solid outings were all against National League teams who never see him.

6 innings, 5 hits, 1 walk, 1 ER 5 k's against the Nats

7 innings, 6 hits, 1 walk, 4 ER, 4 ks against the Mets

7 innings, 7 hits, 1 walk, 1 ER 9 k's against the Pirates

Maybe we should beg a national league team to take him in a trade? Of course he also gave up 11 hits and 9 runs in 4 innings against the Phil's, but still, three of four outings against the National League were solid appearances.

Oh and against the Nats the first time we played them back on May 18 he went 7 innings, 6 hits, 1 walk, 1 ER 9 strikeouts.

So just to recap, if you take out his appearances against the National League, Jake is pitching the following against the American League:

70.1 IP, 77 hits, 27 BB's, 53 ER's, 57 K's

So only about a 2:1 K/BB ration, 104 BB+hits in 70.1 innings and a staggering 53 earned runs in only 70.1 total innings.

He is a bad American League pitcher. His numbers against the National League are staggeringly better. What's my point you might ask? That the book may be out on Jake in the American League, teams that see him all the time know how to hit him. Four of his best 6 or 7 starts this year came against National League teams.

So if he wants to continue to pitch in the Majors, he needs to go down to AAA and work on his mechanics, rebuilding his confidence and bring up something a little different that might help him get American league hitters out or we need to package him in a deal for a big time Major League pitcher in the National League.

It's probably a pipe dream, but ask the Phillies if they'd take him, Matusz and a couple top prospects for Hamels. But regardless, the status quo is no longer good enough for this team, he needs to go down.

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Moyer had an 8 plus era with Toronto's AAA team in two start before he was released tonight.

He had a 1.69 era in three starts with us before we released him, what's your point? Does it really surprise you that a guy who can barely break 85 got lit up pitching in Las Vegas where regular fly ball outs turn into home runs?

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....ahem.

Yes--you can see me officially eating my crow in the last pg. of Jake: Redemption Story. That said, what you quoted up there isn't really different from anything I've said over the past month. What I got wrong was basically my thinking that those problems in mechanics were resolvable, or close to being resolved, or that they wouldn't hurt him enough to keep him from being a reasonably effective starter.

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If they lose this game I hope they dont win another one this entire season. I can't wait for the "reactionary" crowd to blindly defend them after this game. Absolutely pathetic (even if they win this is a pathetic game).

Dude, this post is pathetic. Teams play poorly and give away games all the time. Tonight's game was sickening, especially to the Angels, who have owned us lately... but to say you hope we never win another game this season if they lose??? What sense does that make?? because one guy- Jake Arrietta is atrocious you throw the entire team and fanbase under the bus??? You sound like a Boston fan.

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Based on what, exactly? That Jake is young, and has some upside? some whips, dips and chips? fip?

If you want to argue potential and pure stuff, I might agree with you but Jake sucks right now. He needs to go. Your precious fip doesn't measure the fact that Jake can't locate anything right now.

FIP is a useful tool, but you're right. He's getting into way too many hitters counts, and that can lead to getting hit hard, higher LD%, and a higher BABIP, none of which will show up in FIP unless he's giving up a ton of homers or walking a ton of guys, which he really isn't. His FIP shows that he can be good...if he throws strikes. Right now, though, he can't do it consistently, so he needs to work on that in AAA. Hopefully he can harness his stuff and help the big league club soon enough.

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Except when he can. Tonight he allowed 3 walks in 3.2 IP, last time it was 2 walks in 3.2 IP, and then before that was 3 walks in 24 innings over 6 starts. I suppose your point was probably closer to "grooving is not locating," but if it's a hitch in his delivery from the stretch that causes him to groove pitches, I think they would've found it by now. If it's some kind of loss of confidence, well then why did anyone think he was a bulldog in the first place?

As noted above, he's constantly getting into hitters counts. Walks don't tell the whole story, however they do tell a good amount of it.

3.2 innings tonight, pathetic.

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I agree Eveland is certainly not a long term answer and may in fact end up being worse than Arrieta over the next couple starts (if Jake is indeed sent down). But I'd still rather Jake get sent down to AAA to work on his stuff down there instead of up here and face some weaker lineups so maybe he can get away with a couple of those mistake pitches to the point that he gets his confidence back up to where it needs to be.

Do you disagree that confidence is important for a starting pitcher? Do you really think we can run him out there against the Yankees and Sox when we get back to Division play and expect anything else besides a blood bath?

He went into New York City and tossed 8 shutout innings' date=' allowing 5 hits and 9 strikeouts to 0 walks. That can on the backside of 4 straight mediocre starts. It's not as simple as confidence.

It just isn't good enough and it is VERY hard to find your form again when you are struggling at the major league level. Professional hitters KNOW you are struggling and are much more aware thanks to advanced scouting that they can sit on your breaking pitches and wail them if you aren't commanding your fastball. Yes that is simplifying things a bit, but Jake is getting pulverized at the major league level to the tune of a 6.13 era and a 1.41 whip.

I don't think it's a bad simplification to say he's struggled to command the fastball, especially in the stretch. But it's pretty difficult to consistently groove pitches, too, and he's throwing 92-94. Looking at his PitchFx game charts from the Indians and the Nationals games, his pitches break about the same and had about the same velocity, in the Indians game he was actually more consistently low in the zone, he had more success working up against the Nationals.

Also, his last three decent to solid outings were all against National League teams who never see him.

6 innings, 5 hits, 1 walk, 1 ER 5 k's against the Nats

7 innings, 6 hits, 1 walk, 4 ER, 4 ks against the Mets

7 innings, 7 hits, 1 walk, 1 ER 9 k's against the Pirates

Like I said re: the Yankees game, and his other good AL starts, it's not all about unfamiliarity.

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Dude, this post is pathetic. Teams play poorly and give away games all the time. Tonight's game was sickening, especially to the Angels, who have owned us lately... but to say you hope we never win another game this season if they lose??? What sense does that make?? because one guy- Jake Arrietta is atrocious you throw the entire team and fanbase under the bus??? You sound like a Boston fan.

Yeah, Jake is the only player on this team performing poorly. We've got a iron tight defense, potent offense, and solid sarting pitching otherwise. These 24 other top performers would be running away with the division if it wasn't for Jake......

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Dude, this post is pathetic. Teams play poorly and give away games all the time. Tonight's game was sickening, especially to the Angels, who have owned us lately... but to say you hope we never win another game this season if they lose??? What sense does that make?? because one guy- Jake Arrietta is atrocious you throw the entire team and fanbase under the bus??? You sound like a Boston fan.

He makes sound a little childish with wishng that.

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I know you don't.

I didn't need any of those things, lol. I weighed Jake Arrieta versus Dana Eveland/Miguel Gonzalez and decided Arrieta is still a better option.

How can you watch Arrietta pitch and Gonzalez pitch and still think Arrieta is a better option?

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