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Crush Davis is hurt


weams

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Exactly how many teams have legit replacements for their entire roster as some of you are saying we don't? I'd guess exactly none. AAA depth we have is probably on par with what most teams have, well, except those with an uber prospect at a certain spot. Nothing like completely unreal expectations.

Well, this was the scenario that concerned me most when we decided not to spend $6 mm in Reynolds. It's great to hypothesize that we don't need him because we have Davis at 1B and Betemit/Reimold at DH, but all it takes is 1-2 injuries and now we risk a drastic offensive drop-off.

No point in worrying about what's done. I think Davis' post game comments are whistling past the graveyard, but we'll see. A couple of players will need to step things up now. The replacement at 1B doesn't have to carry the whole load; other guys who have underperformed so far this year need to get their bats in gear.

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I was not far from first base when it happened. First I thought it was a hamstring and that bothered me enough, but when I saw him hopping down

the runway I thought it was a knee and fought, 'Oh God if he's got a tear we are finished." We absolutely cannot go with Flaherty at first base IF

Davis is out for an extended period or worse. You can call anybody that second guesses the depth issue as " negative nelly" or whatever you want to

call it, but the truth is this team in paper thin in all infield positions in terms of bat and glove. Substituting Flaherty for Davis is like replacing

Popeye with Olive Oyl. Doom and Gloom if he's hurt bad? You bet gang. We'll hope for the best, but this team has very poor options at first.

This has got to be the nuttiest, hairbrainedest, cockamamie, thing you have ever posted. Did you say over?

Nothing is over until we decide it is!!

Was it over when the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

Well, it ain't over now!

Cause when the goin gets tough.......

the tough get goin.

Now who's with me? Let's go!

What? Excuse me? He does this negative nelly stuff as a reverse jinx? All the time? Really? And it works? He is the reason David Price is slumping? Oh man, I didn't know. Well, then.....yeah, for real, like were screwed. :cool:

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According to ESPN the next six starters that the O's will face are all righthanded. Hanson and Williams for the Angels, Santana, Mandoza and Guthrie for the Royals and Pelfrey for the Twins. If this is correct Pearce will be on little help because he does not hit righthanders well.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/bal/baltimore-oriolesljjlkj

On the roster, Pearce, Markakis and Flaherty are the players that can play 1st. Pearce will be of little help vs righthanders. Flaherty is not hitting anyone right now. Moving Markakis to first is any option. Dickerson is a decent on-base guy to play RF. There really is no way to replace Davis offensively.

What is the best way to upgrade the offense with Davis out for a couple of days to a week?

If the O's believe that Navarro can play a decent 2B he needs to already be on a plane to LA. He should be an upgrade to Flaherty offensively.

Canzler has not been hitting righthanders at AAA this year. Valencia has been hitting righties at AAA but he did not in the majors. Until the O's know what they are dealing with I doubt they promote either of these two players.

So today's moves that would probably help are Navarro up and Flaherty to AAA. Markakis to 1B and Dickerson to RF. It doesn't replace Davis offensively but it the best the O's can do right now.

Of course, Garcia up and Clark down will happen today.

That is my guess.

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According to ESPN the next six starters that the O's will face are all righthanded. Hanson and Williams for the Angels, Santana, Mandoza and Guthrie for the Royals and Pelfrey for the Twins. If this is correct Pearce will be on little help because he does not hit righthanders well.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/bal/baltimore-oriolesljjlkj

On the roster, Pearce, Markakis and Flaherty are the players that can play 1st. Pearce will be of little help vs righthanders. Flaherty is not hitting anyone right now. Moving Markakis to first is any option. Dickerson is a decent on-base guy to play RF. There really is no way to replace Davis offensively.

What is the best way to upgrade the offense with Davis out for a couple of days to a week?

If the O's believe that Navarro can play a decent 2B he needs to already be on a plane to LA. He should be an upgrade to Flaherty offensively.

Canzler has not been hitting righthanders at AAA this year. Valencia has been hitting righties at AAA but he did not in the majors. Until the O's know what they are dealing with I doubt they promote either of these two players.

So today's moves that would probably help are Navarro up and Flaherty to AAA. Markakis to 1B and Dickerson to RF. It doesn't replace Davis offensively but it the best the O's can do right now.

Of course, Garcia up and Clark down will happen today.

That is my guess.

If Davis is DL'd I think the obvious move is call up Canzler. I'd call up Navarro to replace Flaherty, too, but we'll see if Buck has a longer leash than I do.

And you really need to stop worrying about one month platoon splits. Just assume Canzler is a .750 OPS guy with a standard split, and Valencia is a .700 OPS guy with possibly a little greater than average split against lefties. In 100 PAs you'd be better off not having the split information than using it to make decisions.

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If Davis is DL'd I think the obvious move is call up Canzler. I'd call up Navarro to replace Flaherty, too, but we'll see if Buck has a longer leash than I do.

And you really need to stop worrying about one month platoon splits. Just assume Canzler is a .750 OPS guy with a standard split, and Valencia is a .700 OPS guy with possibly a little greater than average split against lefties. In 100 PAs you'd be better off not having the split information than using it to make decisions.

I am not thinking about what happens if Davis is DL'd yet. That O's will go short handed for a few days trying to avoid that. If the MRI shows something that requires a DL period then is the right time to decide between Canzler and Valencia.

There is a big difference between a player that is not hitting and a player that is not hitting. Look at the Angels. Pujols, Hamilton and Trout are devastating when they are hot. But if they are cold they can be beaten. Its true with most players. So looking and who is hitting and who they are hitting (lefty or righty) is valuable information. Calling up a guy who has hit last year and is cold right now is not helpful to the teams offense.

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There is a big difference between a player that is not hitting and a player that is not hitting. Look at the Angels. Pujols, Hamilton and Trout are devastating when they are hot. But if they are cold they can be beaten. Its true with most players. So looking and who is hitting and who they are hitting (lefty or righty) is valuable information. Calling up a guy who has hit last year and is cold right now is not helpful to the teams offense.

There is essentially no predictive use in classifying someone or some team as hot or cold. Read chapter 2 of The Book:

Knowing that a hitter has been in or is in the midst of a hot of cold streak has little predictive value. Always asume that a player will hit at his projected norm (adjusted for the park, weather, and the pitcher he is facing), regardless of how he has performed in the very recent past.
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Navarro should be called up now. Flaherty should be sent out.

If Davis has to go on the DL, I would prefer Canzler to Valencia.

vs. RHP

LF McLouth

3B Machado

1B Markakis

CF Jones

C Wieters

SS Hardy

DH Reimold

2B Navarro

RF Dickerson

vs. LHP

LF McLouth

3B Machado

RF Markakis

CF Jones

C Wieters

SS Hardy

1B Canzler

2B Navarro

DH Reimold

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