Is this why McPhail is delaying on Bedard?

[T2E2C]

I disagree with this. The young pitchers, Reimold or Scott and Moore or Costanzo all have trade value. They can be traded on a one for one basic for young position players.

I agree that Bedard and Roberts are the only players that are likely to bring multiple quality prospects.

The point is there is more then one way to go. If McPhail does not get the return he wants for Bedard and/or Roberts he may be to this 2nd option.

I think Reimold, Moore, or Costanzo will bring back little "one for one basic for young position players" nor as added value in a trade at this point in time unless they significantly turn up their production.

I wish it were otherwise.

[rolliefingers]

Until they prove different, I will always assume the worst with this organization.

I have no reason to believe things are different just based off of AM's words...His actions will lead me to believe it, not his words.

They don't deserve any benefit of the doubt.

Unfortunately, I have to agree with this.

It's true that MacPhail has done well with every deal he's made thus far, but Tejada (for example) was a different case than Bedard. We knew we had to get rid of Tejada, and that fact always colored the calculus of "what is a good package for Tejada?" I do believe we got a good haul for him, but his value was also fairly clearly defined.

Bedard is different. I think that MacPhail thinks he can wait it out and get someone to jump and add a third blue-chipper. Maybe he's right. But maybe he overplays his hand, and the worst-case scenario (Bedard getting injured before we can move him) happens. MP might be a bit clever for his own good here.

I'm not panicking yet, but if Bedard is wearing Orange and Black on opening day, I'm going to be very nervous.

[Lucky Jim]

Unfortunately, I have to agree with this.

It's true that MacPhail has done well with every deal he's made thus far, but Tejada (for example) was a different case than Bedard. We knew we had to get rid of Tejada, and that fact always colored the calculus of "what is a good package for Tejada?" I do believe we got a good haul for him, but his value was also fairly clearly defined.

Bedard is different. I think that MacPhail thinks he can wait it out and get someone to jump and add a third blue-chipper. Maybe he's right. But maybe he overplays his hand, and the worst-case scenario (Bedard getting injured before we can move him) happens. MP might be a bit clever for his own good here.

I'm not panicking yet, but if Bedard is wearing Orange and Black on opening day, I'm going to be very nervous.

Given. These are the risks. But, generally, it's good policy to defer to those best-positioned to know the risks and the rewards of behavior. That person is not posting on this board, as far as I know.

If/when MacPhail fails to trade Bedard - by OD, because I don't think the risk of carrying him on the roster is tolerable - then I'll be first in line with (vociferous) criticism.

[T2E2C]

I agree if, I could care less if Santana goes to NY or Boston, unless Angelos waives the no trading in the division tag on Bedard. The only way it really helps us is if the loser of the Santana sweepstakes ups the value for Bedard in a panic move.

It looks more & more the max we could get would be from AL East team because that's where the greatest competition is. Most NL teams look at their competition and decide rightly or wrongly that they can get to the postseason without giving up prospects.

"If we played in the other league, I'd probably do that," he said. "But in this league, I don't have to do it. If we keep the guys we'd give up, we have just as much chance to be playing in October as we would if we made the deal. So why do it?"

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3161000

[Sports Guy]

You still don't get it. I don't assume one way or the other. I don't judge until the actions have played out. I'm not giving anyone the benefit of the doubt. I'm simply not judging based on incomplete information, especially when there is time still left on the clock.

I don't care what AM says, either. But you're judging his actions (i.e., "he's waiting too long," "he's asking for too much," "he's made a mistake") when, in fact, there's no proof of any of the things he's been accused of. The Trachsel scenario and the Aybar/Santana trade are two prime examples.

You're making judgments w/o seeing the whole field. And to me, that's nearly always a mistake.

Now, it's not a mistake to analyze incomplete information, play with hypotheticals, or attempt to speculate. But it should be treated as such.

Well whatever...I totally disagree with you.

[Runs2the1Show]

I think AM is trying to see how desperate teams like Seattle will get. The fact that MacPhail is looking to the Angels as an option will potentially cause the Mariners to fold, and vice versa. Those teams know that if they don't win the division, there is no way they make the Wild Card (Red Sox or Yankees), which means they will go all out to make a deal and keep one another from getting Bedard.

I don't think he is waiting for a better deal from other teams as much as he is waiting for either the Angels or Mariners to fold and put that one more prospect (Morrow or Saunders/Wiltis) or reshape the deal to get the maximum prospects.

Some of the osters need to learn to be more patient. I understand its been a long, miserable ten years but essentially AM is just playing good poker. He is slowing things up, thinking things out, making the other players make the first move, and maybe that move is a stupid one or one of desperation. Yea, it would be a mistake to have Brob and Bedard with us at opening Day, but remember thats still three months away. The move doesn't have to be made today, tomorrow, or even in the month of JAnuary. I think the longer he waits it out, the more desperate the angels/mariners become. Just be paitent, believe i know its hard.

[NoVaO]

Give Huff what he is asking for, he'll never come down to our offer (last offseason about now)

Give Wieters $8 mil if he wants it; we're going to lose him if we don't

Trade Trachsel for a 2nd tier prospect

We missed the 1st trading deadline, Trachsel will never get traded for anything now

We waited too long on Tejada; we should have traded him for Santana/Aybar when could have done it; we'll never get value for him now

These are five panic scenarios from just the past 365 days that turned out to be completely false. In all cases, the advocates of these positions would have paid more, gotten less, or done worse than what ended up happening. I think we've got a 6th panic scenario brewing right now that will blow these others out of the water. Some of us are reacting to a Seattle times story today that was already posted on here two previous times AND contains information that was blatantly from prior to XMas. Good stuff

I actually agree with you.

But there is enough smoke out there that says we have a deal of Jones, Clement, Tillman, and Sherril on the table and we are holding out for Morrow.

I like Morrow, perhaps more than most, but we should accept that deal and move on to trading Roberts. The difference between Tillman/Sherril and Morrow is small enough that it isn't worth holding out for. Some would argue Tillman/Sherril are more valuable than Morrow.

[Lucky Jim]

Well whatever...I totally disagree with you.

Of course you do. Though I don't even know what's in there to criticize. The position seems largely unassailable.

[Moose Milligan]

I think AM is trying to see how desperate teams like Seattle will get. The fact that MacPhail is looking to the Angels as an option will potentially cause the Mariners to fold, and vice versa. Those teams know that if they don't win the division, there is no way they make the Wild Card (Red Sox or Yankees), which means they will go all out to make a deal and keep one another from getting Bedard.

I don't think he is waiting for a better deal from other teams as much as he is waiting for either the Angels or Mariners to fold and put that one more prospect (Morrow or Saunders/Wiltis) or reshape the deal to get the maximum prospects.

Some of the osters need to learn to be more patient. I understand its been a long, miserable ten years but essentially AM is just playing good poker. He is slowing things up, thinking things out, making the other players make the first move, and maybe that move is a stupid one or one of desperation. Yea, it would be a mistake to have Brob and Bedard with us at opening Day, but remember thats still three months away. The move doesn't have to be made today, tomorrow, or even in the month of JAnuary. I think the longer he waits it out, the more desperate the angels/mariners become. Just be paitent, believe i know its hard.

Good post.

It might be a mistake to have Bedard and Roberts on the team on opening day, but if we can send them to a team who's desparate at the deadline and come away with a package or two that's better than we're looking at right now, who's going to be upset at that?

Regardless of what he does, a contingent of people won't be happy.

Either way, I agree patience is necessary. It's hard though, to be sure.

[wildcard]

But, don't you think trading prospects for prospects would be somewhat self-defeating for a team like the O's, who already have a lack of legitimate prospects in their Mil system?

No, it is not self defeating IMO.

Let's say the O's have Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Cabrera and Patton in the rotation. That could be a pretty powerful rotation. ST is going to show that other young starters like Olson, Penn and Albers are major league ready or close to ready. Over the first half of the season other teams are going to needs starters and are probably going to be willing to trade young SS, CF and 1B for these pitchers. Meanwhile Liz and Spoone are progressing closer to the major and Burres is ready to back up the rotation.

The O's have Scott, Markakis and soon will have Reimold. Could Markakis play CF or do they trade Scott or Reimold for a CF sometime during the year?

Moore and Costanzo are both 3b that are on the path to replace Mora at 3B. Why do you need two. Include one in a trade.

So the O's have a potentially powerful rotation by keeping Bedard and a very good leadoff hit in Roberts and they fill the holes with youngsters. I think it has a great chance of working. IMO a much better chance then trading Bedard and Roberts.

I fully believe that with Trembley and Kranitz leading the field management, McPhail leading the FO, new young talent at SS, CF and 1B, a strong rotation then Bedard and Roberts will be impressed with the O's direction and sign extensions.

[Lucky Jim]

No, it is not self defeating IMO.

Let's say the O's have Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Cabrera and Patton in the rotation. That could be a pretty powerful rotation. ST is going to show that other young starters like Olson, Penn and Albers are major league ready or close to ready. Over the first half of the season other teams are going to needs starters and are probably going to be willing to trade young SS, CF and 1B for these pitchers. Meanwhile Liz and Spoone are progressing closer to the major and Burres is ready to back up the rotation.

The O's have Scott, Markakis and soon will have Reimold. Could Markakis play CF or do they trade Scott or Reimold for a CF sometime during the year?

Moore and Costanzo are both 3b that are on the path to replace Mora at 3B. Why do you need two. Include one in a trade.

So the O's have a potentially powerful rotation by keeping Bedard and a very good leadoff hit in Roberts and they fill the holes with youngsters. I think it has a great chance of working. IMO a much better chance then trading Bedard and Roberts.

I fully believe that with Trembley and Kranitz leading the field management, McPhail leading the FO, new young talent at SS, CF and 1B, a strong rotation then Bedard and Roberts will be impressed with the O's direction and sign extensions.

There's nothing in the portfolios of Moore and Castanzo that point to even a 50% chance that either will become a full-time above-average major league third baseman. You're counting on a lot of high-risk prospects reaching their potential in order to put that winning team together.

The fact is, we have little talent on our ML roster and an average - at best - minor league system. If THIS combination was enough to predict a winner, then every team is a playoff contender in the near term.

[Sports Guy]

Of course you do. Though I don't even know what's in there to criticize. The position seems largely unassailable.

Do you know how many times over the last 5-7 years I have heard people on here say things like, you don't really know what is going on and there is still a lot of time left and things like that?

Do you know how often those people are wrong? A LOT! Way more than they are right.

[Moose Milligan]

No, it is not self defeating IMO.

Let's say the O's have Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Cabrera and Patton in the rotation. That could be a pretty powerful rotation. ST is going to show that other young starters like Olson, Penn and Albers are major league ready or close to ready. Over the first half of the season other teams are going to needs starters and are probably going to be willing to trade young SS, CF and 1B for these pitchers. Meanwhile Liz and Spoone are progressing closer to the major and Burres is ready to back up the rotation.

The O's have Scott, Markakis and soon will have Reimold. Could Markakis play CF or do they trade Scott or Reimold for a CF sometime during the year?

Moore and Costanzo are both 3b that are on the path to replace Mora at 3B. Why do you need two. Include one in a trade.

So the O's have a potentially powerful rotation by keeping Bedard and a very good leadoff hit in Roberts and they fill the holes with youngsters. I think it has a great chance of working. IMO a much better chance then trading Bedard and Roberts.

I fully believe that with Trembley and Kranitz leading the field management, McPhail leading the FO, new young talent at SS, CF and 1B, a strong rotation then Bedard and Roberts will be impressed with the O's direction and sign extensions.

I don't see why Moore and Costanzo are on the path to replace Mora. Sure, they have the talent to, but I'm pretty sure you wouldn't recognize Costanzo if you saw him on the street. And we're already talking about him taking over? How about seeing what he can do first?

I see where you're coming from and it'll pain me as much as anyone to deal Roberts and Bedard. But their value lies in what they can bring the team back in trades. We can get younger, cheaper and free up more room to sign whatever prospects that pan out long term.

I'd rather sign Markakis, Wieters (assuming he pans out) and whatever other prospects pan out long term than keeping Roberts and Bedard here, hoping and praying that what we already have will be good enough to build with.

I also can't imagine getting much quality back for Mora and the rest of the castoffs that we have. I know we'd like to, but outside of Roberts and Bedard, we don't have much to bring us back players of value.

[utvolzac]

No, it is not self defeating IMO.

Let's say the O's have Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Cabrera and Patton in the rotation. That could be a pretty powerful rotation. ST is going to show that other young starters like Olson, Penn and Albers are major league ready or close to ready. Over the first half of the season other teams are going to needs starters and are probably going to be willing to trade young SS, CF and 1B for these pitchers. Meanwhile Liz and Spoone are progressing closer to the major and Burres is ready to back up the rotation.

The O's have Scott, Markakis and soon will have Reimold. Could Markakis play CF or do they trade Scott or Reimold for a CF sometime during the year?

Moore and Costanzo are both 3b that are on the path to replace Mora at 3B. Why do you need two. Include one in a trade.

So the O's have a potentially powerful rotation by keeping Bedard and a very good leadoff hit in Roberts and they fill the holes with youngsters. I think it has a great chance of working. IMO a much better chance then trading Bedard and Roberts.

I fully believe that with Trembley and Kranitz leading the field management, McPhail leading the FO, new young talent at SS, CF and 1B, a strong rotation then Bedard and Roberts will be impressed with the O's direction and sign extensions.

IMO, this is the biggest flaw with your plan. If we could net a young 1Bman with our 'excess' pitching, I think we would have already. 1B has been a black hole on this team for years.

Although I think we have some nice depth in our farm system, I think we lack the upper level talent in the system to trade for difference makers at 1B, SS & CF.

That said, Baseball America listed Liz as our #2 prospect. I'd be thrilled to trade him for a young 1B, SS or CF, if anyone values him as a #2 prospect.

[Lucky Jim]

Do you know how many times over the last 5-7 years I have heard people on here say things like, you don't really know what is going on and there is still a lot of time left and things like that?

Do you know how often those people are wrong? A LOT! Way more than they are right.

They were wrong in that you did have complete information and there wasn't a lot of time left?

Otherwise, the two arguments above don't take positions.