Adam Jones' slightly improved plate discipline from last year has disappeared.

[section18]

If Buck and our hitting coach JP showed AJ film clips every day of his pathetic at bats and striking out on balls that are way out of the strike zone he might wake up. It's going to take more. I really think he needs a sports psychologist to be in a film room with him and ask him why he continues to swing at these bad pitches. I said a few weeks ago he seems to be a smart guy and should be smart enough to control himself at the plate and show better plate discipline. If the psychologist says to him we are going to meet immediately after every game. Forget about doing pies in the face and get in the film room with me. If you strike out or swing at these low and away pitches there is going to be a penalty. Tell him the visiting dugout players and pitchers are laughing at him. Don't continue to look dumb. You are too smart to play these pitchers game. The penalty for you every time you strike out swinging at one of these low and away pitches is for you to go into the locker room after the game and be prepared for the following; a pie in the face and to sit on a pie for at least 15 minutes whlle interviewed by reporters. The shrink should tell him to think about this every time he goes to the plate. I'm not sure it would work but he might think about it. How else do you break this habit? If they still had the kangaroo court Frank Robinson would find a penalty for him. I hope this is the last time I say this......he looks like a guy that's taking batting practice and only has a few minutes before going out in the field and has to go to the bathroom. AJ is just too anxious? Why?

[orioleslist]

We all know this is who Adam is he is a really good player but not quite at the elite level. That being said he is a team I'm sure plenty of others teams would love tohave.

Which is exactly why, I think, we should absolutely consider trading him within the next year or so. His numbers right now are as good as they're ever going to be--let's face it, he will probably never improve on the one factor that could make him even better: plate discipline. So let's just see how this season plays out... Then it will be time to test the waters and sell high.

[section18]

I made a bet with a friend you would be the first to comment on my suggestion and I won. Thank you! If you owned the Orioles and signed his paycheck how would you break his poor plate habits other than bat for him?

He is making $8.5 mill in 2013, $13 mill in 2014, $13 mill in 2015, $16 mill in 2016, $16 mill in 2017 and $17 mill in 2018.

[Rex Thunder]

Last year in 2012, Adam seemed to finally learn to lay off pitches out of the zone even as pitchers threw less and less over the plate. However, while pitchers haven't adjusted their approach to him this year, Adam has become more... confident?... perfunctory?... remiss?... in his approach and drifted away from the advances he made in 2012.

That Zone% all the way to the left tells us the league's approach to Adam. Progressively in his career, he's seen less pitches inside the strike zone with 2012 and 2013 at career lows. Typically this should institute a higher walk rate and it has in past years. As the Zone% drops, the BB% has steadily climbed... except for this year.

His OBP doesn't look dreadful when compared to the rest of career (though a .321 OBP isn't very impressive compared to the league). But it's the BB% that is staggeringly the lowest of his career at 2.4%

Season	Zone%	BB%	 OBP  O-Swing%	Swing%	Contact%    K%      BABIP2008	52.7 %	4.5 %	.311	36.2 %	53.5 %	 76.9 %	   21.0 %   .3292009	48.5 %	6.9 %	.335	35.2 %	53.6 %	 74.5 %	   17.9 %   .3082010	46.0 %	3.7 %	.325	40.6 %	54.6 %	 75.2 %	   19.2 %   .3282011	44.5 %	4.7 %	.319	44.4 %	56.6 %	 76.8 %	   18.3 %   .3042012	43.2 %	4.9 %	.334	41.3 %	55.0 %	 75.1 %	   18.1 %   .3132013	43.5 %	2.4 %	.321	44.3 %	59.0 %	 75.6 %	   19.3 %   .332

Why the the dreadfully low walk rate when pitchers haven't changed their approach? It's because his O-Swing% (percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone) is the third highest in baseball behind only Pablo Sandoval and Alfonso Soriano. And his Swing% (simply the amount of pitches he swings at period) is 2nd only to the Panda. We all knew he was a hacker but the little discipline he seemed to gain in 2012 seems to have evaporated.

As a result of the free swinging, non walking approach, Jones' K% is the highest it's been since his rookie season. However, to put that number in perspective, his K% only ranks 63rd in baseball right next to Joe Mauer, Joey Votto and David Wright so it's not like the result is terribly catastrophic. For the answer as to why he's been so successful, it's probable that his BABIP simply needs to regress a little though it probably won't regress much.

The conclusion after doing this research is that Jones' approach is dreadful and he performs poorly when pitchers execute their plan to stay outside the zone (often away off the plate). However, when they don't execute and leave it over the plate, Jones has a field day and is very talented at punishing mistakes. I'm sure it's something of a comfort having Chris Davis behind him, but that comfort is a myth. The numbers show that pitchers aren't giving him more pitches to hit because they know he's not smart enough to take the walk and get on base for the 2nd best hitter in the league.

My fear after doing this research: I wonder if we're close to seeing a Josh Hamilton like plummet.

Great anaylsis- and while I didn't know the numbers- this and more was all swirling thru my head in a nutshell- after watching him give the game away in the first inning. That plate appearance still guts me because it was just so undisciplined. No comprehension of his overall value and each situation. It

s just SEE BALL, SWING.

[Uli2001]

The problem of AJ this year is Chris Davis. All of a sudden he is not the offense's centerpiece as he was used to. He has a fragile mentality (I don't want to say "pampered") in that regard. Buck Showalter knows this and that's why he refuses to move him out of the clean-up spot. Showalter knows it would completely destroy him.

Contrast this to Chris Davis, a guy that would richly deserve to bat in the fourth spot but doesn't sulk about it and continues to rake in the fifth spot with virtually no protection behind him in the lineup.

Hopefully, AJ will grow up soon and become more about wins. He takes that open base today with CD coming up with bases loaded, and this could have been a different game.

[centralpaosfan]

May I suggest you do what I do? I like to watch the games on DVR so I can fast forward through the commercials/mound visits/etc. Whenever I see Jones or Weiters coming up to bat I just hit that little fast forward button and it has saved me from a lot of stress. When they actually do something good you hit rewind and it's like Christmas. Otherwise you just snicker and move on.

[isestrex]

If Buck and our hitting coach JP showed AJ film clips every day of his pathetic at bats and striking out on balls that are way out of the strike zone he might wake up. It's going to take more. I really think he needs a sports psychologist to be in a film room with him and ask him why he continues to swing at these bad pitches. I said a few weeks ago he seems to be a smart guy and should be smart enough to control himself at the plate and show better plate discipline. If the psychologist says to him we are going to meet immediately after every game. Forget about doing pies in the face and get in the film room with me. If you strike out or swing at these low and away pitches there is going to be a penalty. Tell him the visiting dugout players and pitchers are laughing at him. Don't continue to look dumb. You are too smart to play these pitchers game. The penalty for you every time you strike out swinging at one of these low and away pitches is for you to go into the locker room after the game and be prepared for the following; a pie in the face and to sit on a pie for at least 15 minutes whlle interviewed by reporters. The shrink should tell him to think about this every time he goes to the plate. I'm not sure it would work but he might think about it. How else do you break this habit? If they still had the kangaroo court Frank Robinson would find a penalty for him. I hope this is the last time I say this......he looks like a guy that's taking batting practice and only has a few minutes before going out in the field and has to go to the bathroom. AJ is just too anxious? Why?

Forcing him to sit down and study isn't the way to motivation.

Adam has to want it. He has to be as frustrated as Cal was after a poor performance to go out after a tough game and hit balls off a tee for 45 min. As great a person as Adam is, I don't see THIS level of desire to get better.... yet.

[centralpaosfan]

Forcing him to sit down and study isn't the way to motivation.

Adam has to want it. He has to be as frustrated as Cal was after a poor performance to go out after a tough game and hit balls off a tee for 45 min. As great a person as Adam is, I don't see THIS level of desire to get better.... yet.

I think you might seen this level of desire around 2017.

[El Gordo]

If Buck and our hitting coach JP showed AJ film clips every day of his pathetic at bats and striking out on balls that are way out of the strike zone he might wake up. It's going to take more. I really think he needs a sports psychologist to be in a film room with him and ask him why he continues to swing at these bad pitches. I said a few weeks ago he seems to be a smart guy and should be smart enough to control himself at the plate and show better plate discipline. If the psychologist says to him we are going to meet immediately after every game. Forget about doing pies in the face and get in the film room with me. If you strike out or swing at these low and away pitches there is going to be a penalty. Tell him the visiting dugout players and pitchers are laughing at him. Don't continue to look dumb. You are too smart to play these pitchers game. The penalty for you every time you strike out swinging at one of these low and away pitches is for you to go into the locker room after the game and be prepared for the following; a pie in the face and to sit on a pie for at least 15 minutes whlle interviewed by reporters. The shrink should tell him to think about this every time he goes to the plate. I'm not sure it would work but he might think about it. How else do you break this habit? If they still had the kangaroo court Frank Robinson would find a penalty for him. I hope this is the last time I say this......he looks like a guy that's taking batting practice and only has a few minutes before going out in the field and has to go to the bathroom. AJ is just too anxious? Why?

I have an easier solution. Just implant electrodes in his gonads and every time he chases a slider in the dirt, Buck presses a remote control button and administers a shock. Should fix things right up in a week.

[Barnaby Graves]

The problem of AJ this year is Chris Davis. All of a sudden he is not the offense's centerpiece as he was used to. He has a fragile mentality (I don't want to say "pampered") in that regard. Buck Showalter knows this and that's why he refuses to move him out of the clean-up spot. Showalter knows it would completely destroy him.

Contrast this to Chris Davis, a guy that would richly deserve to bat in the fourth spot but doesn't sulk about it and continues to rake in the fifth spot with virtually no protection behind him in the lineup.

Hopefully, AJ will grow up soon and become more about wins. He takes that open base today with CD coming up with bases loaded, and this could have been a different game.

Was this a joke?

This is completely ridiculous but the most obvious rebuttal is that if he was mentally fragile he would have imploded after dropping a few balls in center earlier in the year.

You act like it's so easy for a guy to identify a Josh Johnson slider and "take that open base."

[Barnaby Graves]

If Buck and our hitting coach JP showed AJ film clips every day of his pathetic at bats and striking out on balls that are way out of the strike zone he might wake up. It's going to take more. I really think he needs a sports psychologist to be in a film room with him and ask him why he continues to swing at these bad pitches. I said a few weeks ago he seems to be a smart guy and should be smart enough to control himself at the plate and show better plate discipline. If the psychologist says to him we are going to meet immediately after every game. Forget about doing pies in the face and get in the film room with me. If you strike out or swing at these low and away pitches there is going to be a penalty. Tell him the visiting dugout players and pitchers are laughing at him. Don't continue to look dumb. You are too smart to play these pitchers game. The penalty for you every time you strike out swinging at one of these low and away pitches is for you to go into the locker room after the game and be prepared for the following; a pie in the face and to sit on a pie for at least 15 minutes whlle interviewed by reporters. The shrink should tell him to think about this every time he goes to the plate. I'm not sure it would work but he might think about it. How else do you break this habit? If they still had the kangaroo court Frank Robinson would find a penalty for him. I hope this is the last time I say this......he looks like a guy that's taking batting practice and only has a few minutes before going out in the field and has to go to the bathroom. AJ is just too anxious? Why?

These posts always deliver.

[El Gordo]

BTW this happens every year with AJ. He strts out with a good approach laying off the dreaded SLITD. He goes the other way and we applaud him. Then he hits a few HR in succession becomes pull happy and goes into a slump. Sometime in July or early August he goes back to his original approach and starts hitting again. To bad chicks dig the long ball or that Adam isn't gay. He'd actually hit more HR, if he didn't care so much about them.

[isestrex]

BTW this happens every year with AJ. He strts out with a good approach laying off the dreaded SLITD. He goes the other way and we applaud him. Then he hits a few HR in succession becomes pull happy and goes into a slump. Sometime in July or early August he goes back to his original approach and starts hitting again. To bad chicks dig the long ball or that Adam isn't gay. He'd actually hit more HR, if he didn't care so much about them.

I track with you about the good start and then the inevitable slump. I recall that pattern from memory regarding past seasons. Not sure why, but I don't quite remember that last sequence - where he goes back to the original approach - as clearly. Sadly fangraphs doesn't have monthly splits of O-Swing% so I don't know how to verify that assumption.

[section18]

AJ's strikeouts since joining the Orioles in 2008 are as follows;

2008 132 games 108 strikeouts

2009 119 games 93 strikeouts

2010 149 games 119 strikeouts

2011 151 games 113 strikeouts

2012 162 games 126 strikeouts

2013 75 games 63 strikeouts

He will probably break the record he set last year with 126. He's on a pace

to strikeout about 135 times. If he made contact more often and struck out less his numbers would obviously be more impressive.

Does anyone know where to find the number of men left on base for hitters? I'm curious how AJ's numbers look especially his k's with runners in scoring position over the last 5 years+

[Uli2001]

AJ's strikeouts since joining the Orioles in 2008 are as follows;

2008 132 games 108 strikeouts

2009 119 games 93 strikeouts

2010 149 games 119 strikeouts

2011 151 games 113 strikeouts

2012 162 games 126 strikeouts

2013 75 games 63 strikeouts

He will probably break the record he set last year with 126. He's on a pace

to strikeout about 135 times. If he made contact more often and struck out less his numbers would obviously be more impressive.

Does anyone know where to find the number of men left on base for hitters? I'm curious how AJ's numbers look especially his k's with runners in scoring position over the last 5 years+

To be fair, Ks are up throughout the league. There was a story on this on ESPN.com recently. If he goes on to K 135 times, it will be about the same as last year, if you grade on a curve.