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If Hardy is traded, is Matusz and Flaherty enough to get Headley from SD?


Tony-OH

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Guest rochester
I'm saying that Headley is alot better than you are giving him credit for. Wasn't trying to get testy about it. I'm just pointing out that calling him a mid to high .700 OPS hitter is seriously underselling his offensive abilities.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say about his home/away splits. Having a large home/away split, as he does, is indicative of the fact that the most pitcher-friendly park in the game has really hurt his numbers. If you adjust his numbers for a park-neutral environment, he's been the equivalent of a .800+ OPS hitter over the course of his career. There's no reason to think he's in for a big dropoff at age 30.

Getting Headley for Britton and Matusz would be a huge steal, even if it is for one year of Headley and a draft pick if we can't re-sign him. I also think there's a good chance we could sign him to an extension. There's no way SD would agree with that deal. I'm sure everybody in the Orioles organization would endorse that trade.

Home/away splits - I didn't know the difference was that big, thus was agreeing with you re: getting away from Petco.

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I don't know, I don't recall, but Atkins was god awful for a full season in Colorado and trending down extremely fast on every relevant measurable statistic before we signed him. Headley probably would have hit better with two broken thumbs and a wiffleball bat in the first half last year than Atkins did in all of 2009 before we picked him up.

Also, Headley did in fact get better and put up a very strong second half. It's not like that doesn't count. What's the relevance of the comparison that you are bringing up? That a broken thumb in the first half with no apparent effects on the second half could be some pause for concern in considering Headley as an acquisition?

No, no. It's great if he is back to his previous health and production. I know I always get worried about those National league guys coming over though.

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Home/away splits - I didn't know the difference was that big, thus was agreeing with you re: getting away from Petco.

Ah ok, gotcha. In any case I do agree that I wouldn't want to give up anything really valuable for Headley if he was only going to be a one year rental. I just see him as a good extension candidate, in terms of his likelihood to extend and for that deal to be worthwhile, so my reservation price on what I'm willing to give up may be higher than most.

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No, no. It's great if he is back to his previous health and production. I know I always get worried about those National league guys coming over though.

I feel worse about the NL guys when they're pitchers and are losing the cushy ABs against pitchers and pinch hitters. The NL West has been a pretty historically weak division over Headley's career, but it arguably has 3 of the worst hitter's parks in the game- SD, LAD, and SF - which COL and ARI don't completely cancel out. I'd definitely expect a big jump in his raw numbers by spending time in the AL East stadiums.

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If JJ Hardy was moved in a possible St Louis deal, the assumption is that Machado shifts over to SS (when he recovers) leaving a hole at 3B.

In SD, where their team is going nowhere fast, Chase Headley will be entering his last year of his contract and is coming off a decent, but not great year.

With only one tear left on his contract, I'd offer Brian Matusz and Ryan Flaherty for Headley.

Matusz could have a Renaissance by going back to where he went to college. San Diego could certainly use another starter and Matusz would get every opportunity to be tried as a starter once again. Who knows, pitching in that environment may be exactly what Matusz needs to get back on track. Flaherty would give them a low-cost option at 3B to replace Headley.

Meanwhile, the Orioles get to have Headley for a year and hopefully he likes it here and signs an extension.

Having Headley and Machado on the left side of the infield is certainly intriguing.

The only issue would be that with trading Flaherty, the Orioles would be short on infielders including a back up shortstop who made need to fill in for a month or so until MAchado is ready.

Thoughts?

I can't imagine that SD would make this deal. Flaherty is a bench player -- maybe. Matusz is a failed starter who has proven to be an "ok" bullpen arm. I don't imagine that they'd pay more for a local arm than we'd pay to get a MD guy on our club.

If they want to deal Headley, i'm pretty sure they can do better.

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Chase Headley likely would cost you the likes of Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Wright as a starting point... Flaherty or Matusz would just be throw-ins to finish things off.

You are not taking into consideration that he has one year left on his contract and will probably make around $10 million next year. Last year his value would have cost a Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Wright, now, it's nowhere close.

I like Headley a lot, and I agree with Redbeard that he would probably bounce back to a .800+ OPS guy with the Orioles, but he's only under contract for one more year and will cost some money. Maybe a desperate team with a full minor league system may overpay for him, but the Orioles are not either.

Flaherty showed last year over an extended period of time that he can put up decent offensive numbers. Matusz still has a pedigree and his wants to start. He's got three pitches and in the right situation (PETCO Parkl being one of them) he might be able to come back an be an effective starter. Now, maybe it might take a little more, but it's not an outlandish offer. San Diego (Spanish for a Whale's Vagina) may ask for a Eduardo Rodriguez, but no way is he going for a one-year rental of Headley. Now maybe, just maybe you consider adding Mike Wright, but I would need some kind of B- level (Think Hoes-type) outfield prospect back if he were added to the deal.

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Let's take a look at Brian Matusz' stuff and see why a team like San Diego may think he can be effective as a starter again.

Last year was the first year in Matusz' career where his pitch f/x ratings for all of his pitches (minus his changeup) were plus:

4-seam FB - 2.1

2- seam FB - 1.9

Slider - 4.4 (best of his career and a plus offering)

Curveball - 1.7

He continued to struggle with his changeup (-2.4) but that was his best numbers for the pitch since 2009.

He once had a plus changeup in the minors and college, so it's in there. With the right pitching coach, maybe he can refind the pitch. Maybe he'll also have a catcher who knows how to call an effective changeup as well.

On top of it, Matusz has evened out a bit as a flyball-groundball guy getting 39% groundballs and 40% flyballs (21% line drives), but even if he didn't PETCO park is the perfect place for a flyball pitcher.

I know some of you have determined that Matusz is a LOOGY because of the way Showalter used him last year, and he did struggle against right-handers last year (.302/.375/.372/.747) though they only hit one home run off him and he gave up a lot of seeing singles to them, but I think there is s still a chance that he can converted back to a starter, and doing it in San Diego may be the optimum place for that to happen.

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While I agree that San Diego is probably the optimum spot for Matusz to start over, I would prefer our new PC have a chance to fix his changeup before we give up/sell low. Matusz has gotten in better shape the last 2 off-seasons and fixed his mechanics on the FB. I give him 1 more chance to be a SP but bring in more SP competition. I am not counting on it working but am willing to risk his arb cost as a loogy against the chance he finds his changeup again.

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Super Utility is probably Flaherty's role, but I still see some upside with him. From May 9th to the end of the season, Flaherty hit .275/.339/.485/.824 over 183 PAs with 8 doubles and 9 home runs. That's 21 doubles and 24.5 homers over 500 PAs. Those would have been outstanding numbers at 2B or 3B.

Not trying to derail this thread, but do you think the numbers here reflect Flaherty's true potential, or this is a "Reimold type" hot streak that cannot be sustained? I know I'm asking you to guess, but as a man with an eye for talent, your "guess" means a lot more than the rest of us!

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Chase Headley likely would cost you the likes of Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Wright as a starting point... Flaherty or Matusz would just be throw-ins to finish things off.

For a one year rental? I don't think so.

It would likely take more than Matusz and Flaherty, but I think you're overvaluing one year of Headley before his contract expires.

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For a one year rental? I don't think so.

It would likely take more than Matusz and Flaherty, but I think you're overvaluing one year of Headley before his contract expires.

JJ Hardy is a one year rental. Headley is also younger and probably a better candidate for extension. Not perfectly comparable situations because the Orioles are contenders and the Padres are probably not, but if the Orioles traded Hardy for anything close to the equivalent trade value to Flaherty and Matusz, there may actually be riots at Camden Yards.

It boggles my mind that some people are saying the Cardinals should be willing to give up Shelby Miller, or some combination of players at near that level of trade value, for JJ Hardy at age 31 on a one year, $7 million deal. But the Orioles shouldn't be willing to give up Brian Matusz and Ryan Flaherty for Chase Headley at age 30 on a one year, ~$10-12 million deal (in arbitration). Not saying these are the same people saying both of these things, but the level of variation in how people are valuing two players of comparable value is really extreme.

The Red Sox are absolutely going to be in on Headley. They would probably offer something like Middlebrooks and Workman without thinking twice about it, then either extend Headley or take the QO pick after he leaves. That trade offer would blow Matusz and Flaherty out of the water. The best case scenario if we want to get Headley is that the best prospect we give up is below the EdRod/Schoop tier of our prospects, but realistically to make a competitive offer it would have to include one of those two.

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Not trying to derail this thread, but do you think the numbers here reflect Flaherty's true potential, or this is a "Reimold type" hot streak that cannot be sustained? I know I'm asking you to guess, but as a man with an eye for talent, your "guess" means a lot more than the rest of us!

I don't think Flaherty is a true .800 OPS hitter, but I do think he could be a solid .750-.780 guy if given every day AB with occasional day offs against tough lefties.

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You are not taking into consideration that he has one year left on his contract and will probably make around $10 million next year. Last year his value would have cost a Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Wright, now, it's nowhere close.

I like Headley a lot, and I agree with Redbeard that he would probably bounce back to a .800+ OPS guy with the Orioles, but he's only under contract for one more year and will cost some money. Maybe a desperate team with a full minor league system may overpay for him, but the Orioles are not either.

Flaherty showed last year over an extended period of time that he can put up decent offensive numbers. Matusz still has a pedigree and his wants to start. He's got three pitches and in the right situation (PETCO Parkl being one of them) he might be able to come back an be an effective starter. Now, maybe it might take a little more, but it's not an outlandish offer. San Diego (Spanish for a Whale's Vagina) may ask for a Eduardo Rodriguez, but no way is he going for a one-year rental of Headley. Now maybe, just maybe you consider adding Mike Wright, but I would need some kind of B- level (Think Hoes-type) outfield prospect back if he were added to the deal.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox offered Middlebrooks for Headley, maybe more than just Middlebrooks. For the O's to top that they'd have to offer more/better young controllable players.

Why would the Padres take Matusz and/or Flaherty when they could do better than that by letting Headley walk and take a supplemental pick instead? If Headley has a poor 2014, then yeah, the O's could maybe get him for Matusz/Flaherty at the deadline.

The point is any number of teams can top an offer of Matusz and Flaherty for Chase Headley -- even if he only has a year left under contract.

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Why would the Padres take Matusz and/or Flaherty when they could do better than that by letting Headley walk and take a supplemental pick instead?

Matusz and Flaherty are inarguably more valuable than the 30th pick in the draft. Noah Lowry is the best 30th pick in the last 25 years and Jack Cust is the second best.

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JJ Hardy is a one year rental. Headley is also younger and probably a better candidate for extension. Not perfectly comparable situations because the Orioles are contenders and the Padres are probably not, but if the Orioles traded Hardy for anything close to the equivalent trade value to Flaherty and Matusz, there may actually be riots at Camden Yards.

It boggles my mind that some people are saying the Cardinals should be willing to give up Shelby Miller, or some combination of players at near that level of trade value, for JJ Hardy at age 31 on a one year, $7 million deal. But the Orioles shouldn't be willing to give up Brian Matusz and Ryan Flaherty for Chase Headley at age 30 on a one year, ~$10-12 million deal (in arbitration). Not saying these are the same people saying both of these things, but the level of variation in how people are valuing two players of comparable value is really extreme.

The Red Sox are absolutely going to be in on Headley. They would probably offer something like Middlebrooks and Workman without thinking twice about it, then either extend Headley or take the QO pick after he leaves. That trade offer would blow Matusz and Flaherty out of the water. The best case scenario if we want to get Headley is that the best prospect we give up is below the EdRod/Schoop tier of our prospects, but realistically to make a competitive offer it would have to include one of those two.

Number one, this is a huge point, not just a small matter. Add in the pay difference and the fact that top shortstops are worth more than top 3B, and it's not as comparable. Even if you want to say Hardy and Headley are even, if the Orioles were staring down another sub .500 season and I didn't think I had much of a chance to resign Hardy, I might be willing to take a former #4 overall selection who may be a great fit my ball park and potential .770ish OPS replacement at 3B.

By the way, who is suggesting Hardy for Shelby Miller straight up is a good deal for the Cardinals? I know I never did.

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