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Average payroll + below average farm system = trouble


Frobby

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I think people spend way too much time bemoaning our major league payroll. The truth is, we're about average. That's good enough to compete with a well-run club.

What frustrates me no end is our below average farm system. If this team hopes to compete for World Series titles, we simply have to produce more major league quality talent out of our own system.

I've been reading frequent complaints about how we don't follow Tampa's approach of decisively trading away good players when they get 1-2 years away from free agency. There's a simple reason for this: we don't have ready replacements. It's pretty easy to trade James Shields when that leaves you with Price, Moore, Cobb, Archer and a 5th starter. You can't build a farm system or team entirely on the young guys you get back by trading veterans (such as Archer and Wil Myers), you have to be producing your own fair share of young guys.

We have a lot riding on the top five guys in our system, because if they don't come through, there's not much behind them. BA recently did a rough ranking of the farm systems based on how many players were placed in the league top 20's, and the Orioles ranked 28th of 30. 28th. (BA did concede that if Gausman had spent enough time in any one league to qualify, and if Bundy had been healthy, we would have been in middle of the pack. Still, that's mediocre, not what we need if we want to be consistently competitive.)

So, while it's great that Andy MacPhail was so good at trades, and Duquette has made some nice scores off the scrap bin, I continue to think that getting our farm system to the point where it is consistently above average is the only way we are going to produce consistently contending teams. And I've been waiting a long time for that to happen. That is Duquette's biggest challenge, not signing some big free agent.

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I think people spend way too much time bemoaning our major league payroll. The truth is, we're about average. That's good enough to compete with a well-run club.

What frustrates me no end is our below average farm system. If this team hopes to compete for World Series titles, we simply have to produce more major league quality talent out of our own system.

I've been reading frequent complaints about how we don't follow Tampa's approach of decisively trading away good players when they get 1-2 years away from free agency. There's a simple reason for this: we don't have ready replacements. It's pretty easy to trade James Shields when that leaves you with Price, Moore, Cobb, Archer and a 5th starter. You can't build a farm system or team entirely on the young guys you get back by trading veterans (such as Archer and Wil Myers), you have to be producing your own fair share of young guys.

We have a lot riding on the top five guys in our system, because if they don't come through, there's not much behind them. BA recently did a rough ranking of the farm systems based on how many players were placed in the league top 20's, and the Orioles ranked 28th of 30. 28th. (BA did concede that if Gausman had spent enough time in any one league to qualify, and if Bundy had been healthy, we would have been in middle of the pack. Still, that's mediocre, not what we need if we want to be consistently competitive.)

So, while it's great that Andy MacPhail was so good at trades, and Duquette has made some nice scores off the scrap bin, I continue to think that getting our farm system to the point where it is consistently above average is the only way we are going to produce consistently contending teams. And I've been waiting a long time for that to happen. That is Duquette's biggest challenge, not signing some big free agent.

One would have to assume if you traded away said players at peak value, that something would be coming back to help fill whatever hole that left. Maybe not at the exact position but enough to mitigate the loss in the present.

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Trade Wieters, Davis, Hardy, and JJ, for top prospects, not ML ready talent. We'd go a long way towards getting the farm system up to speed. Just wouldn't be playing meaningful games in Sept. for the next 3-5 years.

If they trade all four then the team won't be playing meaning games in June for the next 2-3 years.

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Which is why some of us disliked DD trading away the draft pick last season.

Especially for Bud Norris.

I think you see more complaining about FA than the farm system, because FA can be a "quick fix" if we agree to increase payroll. Improving the farm system is going to take time.

In the long run, improving the farm system is much more important. I get the feeling our development is getting better. DD seems to have an idea (along with Buck) of how he wants that to go. The fact that they are here for a while will only help in getting across a consistent message. In addition to the development, we're going to need to see a bigger monetary commitment in acquiring amateur talent. I'd like to see us push up to the point where we almost lose a draft pick because we've spent so much on our current class. Also, I'd like to see us make a larger investment in the international amateur market. If we can do those things, we won't have to depend as much on development.

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If they trade all four then the team won't be playing meaning games in June for the next 2-3 years.

I have no interest in this.

We would get Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop.

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Especially for Bud Norris.

I think you see more complaining about FA than the farm system, because FA can be a "quick fix" if we agree to increase payroll. Improving the farm system is going to take time.

In the long run, improving the farm system is much more important. I get the feeling our development is getting better. DD seems to have an idea (along with Buck) of how he wants that to go. The fact that they are here for a while will only help in getting across a consistent message. In addition to the development, we're going to need to see a bigger monetary commitment in acquiring amateur talent. I'd like to see us push up to the point where we almost lose a draft pick because we've spent so much on our current class. Also, I'd like to see us make a larger investment in the international amateur market. If we can do those things, we won't have to depend as much on development.

Has that happened to any team yet? Are many teams even going into the monetary penalty?

I hate to bring up the C word but...

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Which is why some of us disliked DD trading away the draft pick last season.

Of the various mid-season trades last year, the Norris deal is the one that troubles me. I'll be a lot less troubled if Norris goes out and pitches like a no. 3 starter for the next two years.

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Has that happened to any team yet? Are many teams even going into the monetary penalty?

I hate to bring up the C word but...

I know there was talk about the Dodgers doing this last draft. I don't know if they did though. I'm not sure about collusion. I could see each individual team not wanting to give power back to the agents that they worked hard to take back in the CBA.

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Of the various mid-season trades last year, the Norris deal is the one that troubles me. I'll be a lot less troubled if Norris goes out and pitches like a no. 3 starter for the next two years.

I think that goes for all of us.

If he can't get his splits straight he is going to end up in the pen and a non-tender candidate.

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Of the various mid-season trades last year, the Norris deal is the one that troubles me. I'll be a lot less troubled if Norris goes out and pitches like a no. 3 starter for the next two years.

He's going to have to come up with a changeup for LH. Or some added deception to his delivery.

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I know there was talk about the Dodgers doing this last draft. I don't know if they did though. I'm not sure about collusion. I could see each individual team not wanting to give power back to the agents that they worked hard to take back in the CBA.

I can see not wanting to give up the pick.

I don't see why teams are not taking the money hit and spending every penny they can.

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Of the various mid-season trades last year, the Norris deal is the one that troubles me. I'll be a lot less troubled if Norris goes out and pitches like a no. 3 starter for the next two years.

Which he may easily do. BTW, I bet he could close pretty darn well.

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