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The O's are not replacing superstars this winter.


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For those that preach benefit of the doubt as the offseason moves along, what factors lead you to the conclusion that this franchise has earned the benefit of the doubt? Strikes me as a simple question.

14 years of losing wasn't enough. Of course, they said the same thing during every single offseason that resembled this current one. It's amazing.

MSK

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Pretty huge leaps to assume guys like Paguero could replace Mclouth. Guys like Saunders/Maholm could capably file 4/5 slots in the rotation and Betemit could be a capable DH.

I suspect you haven't heard much about that perspective because it's the types of options most people are dreading. Not to say it can't work and all the chips couldn't fall into place for us, but that would appear to be a long shot imo. In the end we'll do what we need to do within our budget constraints and limited trade options as I don't see things being broken up.

Peguero has old Chris Davis K and walk numbers in AAA with no power and a .700 OPS. He would have to be a plus-plus glove to approach McLouth's middling performance.

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It isn't so much that the guys we lost are hard to replace. It's that 1) few or none of them have been (depending on your perspective... are Urrutia and Paguero equal-replacements for McClouth? Are Webb or Hunter going to surpass JJ if made to close? Many think not) and we've had ample time and opportunity to do that, and 2) we can't assume improved production by the returners as a whole (I would assume that average overall production for the remaining players taken together would stay the same). So even if we replace our departed players with equal guys (and seriously front office, let's get that done) we've still not improved the team to have a playoff shot.

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I don't want Hunter or Webb closing. The O's need to sign a closer.

I think players 27 yr/old or younger should be expected to improve. Not all will but they should be still growing. Machado, Tillman, Flaherty, who is a little late because the the path he took and of course Gausman should improve next year.

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The OP is basically saying, "Have no fear, off-season losses will be less than off-season gains. We're not losing anyone we can't replace. JJ? Feldman? McLouth? Please. We're good."

I completely agree with that. Heck, Webb will probably be just as good as JJ and we'll get a Burnett or Floyd type of guy that can do what Feldman did.

My concern is the returning guys. Lots of them could be worse with very few that are likely or able to get better. I mean, realistically, who do we have that will be better in 2014? Markakis, sure. We might get more from 2B, DH, and backup catcher. My concern is a downtick from Davis, Jones, Machado, Tillman, Hunter, and Valencia. All of those guys could step back, which is the biggest issue in my opinion. The rest of the guys will do about what they did, it's those six that worry me.

By the way, I think all six will be fine... just not as good as last year which means the team isn't as good. Plus, we have the most room to improve in the rotation and I just don't know that we will see much there unless the new coach is a master and Gausman takes a big step. We'll see.

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I'd be shocked if Francisco Peguero can hit for a .729 OPS in the majors this season. He couldn't manage an .800 OPS as a 25-year old in the PCL, which is a very hitter-friendly league. More importantly, his plate discipline is poor (13 BB to 53 K in half a season in 2013). Sometimes a guy with poor plate discipline but plus power can come into the majors and have initial success, because pitchers are trying to attack them and haven't figured out yet that they don't have to throw them a strike (Jeff Francoeur fits that mold). But Peguero doesn't have the plus power.

I'm surprised that Duquette seems so enamored of Peguero. He seems like the last GM in the world that would fall for a tools prospect with a bad approach who has never put the tools to good use on the field.

He has the Adam Jones mentality. Kind of the "you don't walk off the island, you have to hit your way off the island" approach. (I know Adam is from SD) I don't think we will see very many homers his first year but I think he will hit. Singles, doubles and triples. His strikeouts in the minors have not been that high.

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As of now we haven't maintained status quo. We have no CL, no LF, and most importantly, no number 4 SP. We need to get a SP who will give us 200 innings. In addition we need a LF who will give us at least a .750 OPS, and DH who can do the same, preferably better. And of course a CL who will blow less than 9 saves.

No question about it. 100% correct.

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The problem with the stand pat approach is that we have a real window to compete that is closing rapidly. The status quo is simply unacceptable- either make real improvements to make the team a championship contender or deal Hardy, Davis, and Wieters for prospects. Taking the middle road will doom the team to another dark age with nothing to show for it.

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Oriole DHs OPSed .704 last year.

Um, no. Let's has a refresher. O's DH lines before Valencia getting hot: .197/.261/.382.

328 plus 261 is not .704. but .643. That .643 is generous considering the DH (whoever it was for the day) was streaky. We'd have games on end where it was be an 0 for whatever at the DH spot.

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The problem with the stand pat approach is that we have a real window to compete that is closing rapidly. The status quo is simply unacceptable- either make real improvements to make the team a championship contender or deal Hardy, Davis, and Wieters for prospects. Taking the middle road will doom the team to another dark age with nothing to show for it.

They will trade the core at the break when the O's are probably out of it.

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Peguero has old Chris Davis K and walk numbers in AAA with no power and a .700 OPS. He would have to be a plus-plus glove to approach McLouth's middling performance.

Peguero had 53 K's in 298 AB last year. That is 89 K's in 500 AB. If he can offer a decent OBP and play a good leftfield I will take that.

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He has the Adam Jones mentality. Kind of the "you don't walk off the island, you have to hit your way off the island" approach. (I know Adam is from SD) I don't think we will see very many homers his first year but I think he will hit. Singles, doubles and triples. His strikeouts in the minors have not been that high.

If only he had Adam Jones' abilities.

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