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About Adam Jones' Defense:


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I never thought Jones was a great CF (I think he makes too many dumb mistakes on plays at a position where dumb mistakes are almost always high-leverage) but it's worth nothing that the negative rating of his fielding, at least per Fangraphs spray charts, is based on 17 plays not made. I think this highlights the problem with defensive metrics. (not enough plays, and each play has too much run value associated with it.)

edit: to be fair, it's also based on 10 plays made. I came to this by counting all the non-green plays made, and all the non-grey plays not made. It's a pretty small number, and it seriously limits the pool of available plays from which to evaluate fielders.

It would take three or four years to have a 100 of these to judge on. And even then it's only 100.

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I guess I don't understand why we even include the plays that 0% of CF'ers could get? And there seems to be some serious overlap in the 0% chance misses and the 99% chance catches.

i just want to know the criteria used to judge these plays.

Take the missed graph, that one green dot to the extreme south of his zone, why is that a play that nearly every CF should make, but ones closer to his zone are plays that 0% of CF would make? I don't understand the context of the dots.

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I guess I don't understand why we even include the plays that 0% of CF'ers could get? And there seems to be some serious overlap in the 0% chance misses and the 99% chance catches.

i just want to know the criteria used to judge these plays.

If zero percent of players don't make a play then you're not docked for missing it. The chart is in 2 dimensions. What's not shown is the force/trajectory of each batted ball and that's mainly how the percentages are derived.

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<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&static=842593&type=spray&num=1&h=450&w=450&players=6368&position=OF&mt=fielding&ss=2012&se=&cht=fielding_not&pos=ALL&vs=ALL" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="450" width = "450" style="border:1px solid black;"></iframe><br /><span style="font-size:9pt;">Source: <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=6368&position=OF&type=fielding&ss1=2012&se1=&cht1=fielding_not&pos1=ALL&vs1=ALL">FanGraphs</a></span>

<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&static=842594&type=spray&num=1&h=450&w=450&players=10155&position=OF&mt=fielding&ss=2012&se=&cht=fielding_not&pos=CF&vs=ALL" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="450" width = "450" style="border:1px solid black;"></iframe><br /><span style="font-size:9pt;">Source: <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&type=fielding&ss1=2012&se1=&cht1=fielding_not&pos1=CF&vs1=ALL">FanGraphs</a></span>

Take a look at these two charts, what do these tell us? we definitely see Jones with more green dots than Trout - but why does Jones seem to have so many more uncatchable misses?

This is some interesting stuff, and I think it doesn't really say much about Jones beyond what we already know. He plays a solid CF, and some fielding deficiencies are made up with a more than solid arm and an ability to hold runners. Bill Squadron, of bloomberg sports, once told me that OF defensive metrics are probably about 3-5 years away from being really reliable, this is a great first step and it gives us something really interesting to discuss.

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I guess I don't understand why we even include the plays that 0% of CF'ers could get? And there seems to be some serious overlap in the 0% chance misses and the 99% chance catches.

i just want to know the criteria used to judge these plays.

Take the missed graph, that one green dot to the extreme south of his zone, why is that a play that nearly every CF should make, but ones closer to his zone are plays that 0% of CF would make? I don't understand the context of the dots.

The first chart in COC's post #40 is probably the most telling. Those light green patches in the 60-90% catchable area are all deep (very likely extra base hits) and are debited more heavily than balls in the shallower range.

Edit. Take that back. Read it backwards. Jones still has more missed plays deep though.

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I guess I don't understand why we even include the plays that 0% of CF'ers could get? And there seems to be some serious overlap in the 0% chance misses and the 99% chance catches.

i just want to know the criteria used to judge these plays.

Take the missed graph, that one green dot to the extreme south of his zone, why is that a play that nearly every CF should make, but ones closer to his zone are plays that 0% of CF would make? I don't understand the context of the dots.

Hang time on balls. Line drive vs high fly ball.

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The first chart in COC's post #40 is probably the most telling. Those light green patches in the 60-90% catchable area are all deep (very likely extra base hits) and are debited more heavily than balls in the shallower range.

I don't get what you mean here? Why would the result of the play mean anything to the fact of whether or not he made the play?

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