Dan Duquette can't get the financial go-ahead from owner Peter Angelos to meet Morales' asking price

[LookitsPuck]

Why is Jimenez a high variance pitcher, but Feldman isn't?

Feldman's last 5 years:

2009: 4.08 ERA, 114 ERA+

2010: 5.48 ERA, 82 ERA+

2011: 3.94 ERA, 113 ERA+

2012: 5.09 ERA, 86 ERA+

2013: 3.86 ERA, 106 ERA+

AVERAGE: 4.50 ERA, 98 ERA+

Compare to Ubaldo:

2009: 3.47 ERA, 136 ERA+

2010: 2.88 ERA, 161 ERA+

2011: 4.68 ERA, 93 ERA+

2012: 5.40 ERA, 72 ERA+

2013: 3.30 ERA, 114 ERA+

AVERAGE: 3.88 ERA, 111 ERA+

[El Gordo]

Why is Jimenez a high variance pitcher, but Feldman isn't?

Feldman's last 5 years:

2009: 4.08 ERA, 114 ERA+

2010: 5.48 ERA, 82 ERA+

2011: 3.94 ERA, 113 ERA+

2012: 5.09 ERA, 86 ERA+

2013: 3.86 ERA, 106 ERA+

AVERAGE: 4.50 ERA, 98 ERA+

Compare to Ubaldo:

2009: 3.47 ERA, 136 ERA+

2010: 2.88 ERA, 161 ERA+

2011: 4.68 ERA, 93 ERA+

2012: 5.40 ERA, 72 ERA+

2013: 3.30 ERA, 114 ERA+

AVERAGE: 3.88 ERA, 111 ERA+

I didn't say I wanted Feldman I said I preferred some who would give us QS like Feldman did last season. Feldman has a career QS % of 61. Jimenez has one of 58%. Last year it was 50%. No doubt Jimenez is the better SP. But we needed a SP who could give us QS for two years, or preferably less. Burnett would have been ideal. Colon, Hudson, and Arroyo, were a lot closer to what we needed than Jimenez at the price. We have too many good young SP on their way and too many other needs, to get stuck with a contract like Jimenez for 4 years

[El Gordo]

You can never have enough pitching.

When it's over priced you can. Think Kevin Brown, Pasano, Zito, Ponson.

[crawjo]

Quality starts aren't an adequate stat for this purpose. In terms of your odds of winning a game, there is a big difference between giving up three runs in six innings and giving up two runs in seven innings. If a pitcher is consistently in the 4.50 ERA range in his starts, then he's simply not very good. Feldman for the Orioles last year had a 4.27 ERA, which was a 99 ERA+. The Orioles were 6-8 in his starts. Not good enough. Maybe on a team that already had an ace, that might be sufficient. But the Orioles make do basically with a bunch of three starters. In that scenario, you need something better than a 4.27 ERA from the back end of your rotation. You need to be better than 6-8 because in all likelihood the club is not going to make up for it with the other starters, none of whom are likely to finish the year with an ERA below 3.50.

[El Gordo]

Quality starts aren't an adequate stat for this purpose. In terms of your odds of winning a game, there is a big difference between giving up three runs in six innings and giving up two runs in seven innings. If a pitcher is consistently in the 4.50 ERA range in his starts, then he's simply not very good. Feldman for the Orioles last year had a 4.27 ERA, which was a 99 ERA+. The Orioles were 6-8 in his starts. Not good enough. Maybe on a team that already had an ace, that might be sufficient. But the Orioles make do basically with a bunch of three starters. In that scenario, you need something better than a 4.27 ERA from the back end of your rotation. You need to be better than 6-8 because in all likelihood the club is not going to make up for it with the other starters, none of whom are likely to finish the year with an ERA below 3.50.

This team got 78 QS last season and won 85. That's because it's a good offense. It would be terrific if we could sign a Lee or Kershaw to our rotation, but they weren't available. For the price an Arroyo would be a good fit for this team because he would keep a good offense in the game, more often than not. What pitcher on this team, including Jimenez, gives up two per 7? That's a 2.57 ERA isn't it?

[El Gordo]

Not sure Jimenez qualifies as overpriced. Norris is easy to get rid of and Chen is here for one more year and not making very much.

At 4 years and a first round pick when we didn't need his production for more than one or two at the most, I'd say he is. Just hope he is closer to the 2010 Ubaldo than the 2012.

[gpolee]

At 4 years and a first round pick when we didn't need his production for more than one or two at the most, I'd say he is. Just hope he is closer to the 2010 Ubaldo than the 2012.

You've already written off 2016 and 2017 for the Orioles?

[OFFNY]

At 4 years and a first round pick when we didn't need his production for more than one or two at the most, I'd say he is. Just hope he is closer to the 2010 Ubaldo than the 2012.

You've already written off 2016 and 2017 for the Orioles?

I can only take one game at a time. That's how I stay relatively sane (although that assertion is HIGHLY debatable.)

Writing off several years into the future is mind-boggling.

[El Gordo]

You've already written off 2016 and 2017 for the Orioles?

Petty much. We may have great SP but we won't have much offense. Who do we have in our system to replace Wieters, Davis, Markakis, and Hardy?

[Flacco Machado]

Petty much. We may have great SP but we won't have much offense. Who do we have in our system to replace Wieters, Davis, Markakis, and Hardy?

Good God...2016 and 2017? Really?

Just because we may not have players in our own system, that does not mean we will not be able to fill possible losses by other means. No reason to worry about things like this right now.

Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk

[El Gordo]

Good God...2016 and 2017? Really?

Just because we may not have players in our own system, that does not mean we will not be able to fill possible losses by other means. No reason to worry about things like this right now.

Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk

How have we been able to replace three AS caliber players and another good one, with trades and FA signings in the recent past? And do you think Manny is going to give us a home town deal when he can spring to a contender? You're kidding yourself. We are in for a few down years after 2015, at best, maybe even 14 more.

[VeveJones007]

Petty much. We may have great SP but we won't have much offense. Who do we have in our system to replace Wieters, Davis, Markakis, and Hardy?

The Rays have been consistently good in the AL East with great pitching and defense to go along with average to below average offense. There is still plenty of hope for 2016 and on.

I'll also add that it's a lot easier to pay Davis $20M/year when you're getting great production from Bundy-Gausman-EdRod-Harvey on minimum contracts. Will the pitching be great? Maybe. Maybe not. But writing off 2016 now is a fallacy.

[Norfolk orioles]

So just out of curiosity, if you guys HAD to guess, what would you put the odds at of us still signing morales? Also what are the odds it's Cruz?

Or is it more than likely neither? Anyone have a bold prediction on this?

[Winter]

So just out of curiosity, if you guys HAD to guess, what would you put the odds at of us still signing morales? Also what are the odds it's Cruz?

Or is it more than likely neither? Anyone have a bold prediction on this?

If so they need to get the ball moving, only a matter of time before a expected contenders guy goes down in spring training and they throw a contract their way

I'd like either 1 of the 2. I can accept Cruz though I would hope his contract would be incentives. I think both can maintain their health as a DH, with rarely playing the field. The contract has to be 2 years max though...Because Davis will need the pay upgrade lol

Morales Slim chance

Cruz decent chance, with using him being a cheater against him to sign for less

Ike Davis likely, cheaper

[25 Nuggets]

There's no way I sign Cruz unless he agrees to full-time DH. Otherwise it's subtraction by addition.