Does Trout Deal Set The Market for Machado? (Update: 6/$144.5M)

[jabba72]

Considering Trout has been worth close to $120M during his first 2 seasons, $25M is an absolute bargain.

A players first 6 seasons are generally assumed to be more team friendly in the salary department.

[Can_of_corn]

More on Trout

http://regressing.deadspin.com/mike-trout-has-finally-broken-baseballs-math-1529828226

The price for one WAR has basically been set at $6 million per season, which, as we've seen with Robinson Cano, can lead to very large numbers if a player projects well. The thing is, projections for next season have Trout down for anywhere from 8.2 to 9.7 WAR, which if you're scoring at home, is between $49.2 and 58.2 million in market value. Dan Szymborski has him down for 9.5 WAR next year, and a total of 76.1 over the next 10 years. If you apply modest 5% annual inflation to the cost of a win, he projects to be worth around $560 million over the next decade, with $400 million of that coming after he'll be eligible for free agency. Obviously, Mike Trout is not going to be paid half a billion dollars, but it looks like he's going to get closer than anyone thought.

[UpstateNYfan]

That's actually underpaying him. He was a 10 WAR player last year. 8.8 the year before.

If Trout doesn't sign, he will be the first $35m a year player come 2018.

He may indeed be worth $35m, but to drive the salary to that point you need multiple suitors. How many of the teams that might be able to afford him will flinch when it goes over $30 m?

[Redskins Rick]

Manny is not Trout.

Comparing Manny to Trout's salary contract would be like me calling up the fruit stand and asking about the current Orange prices, when I had apples.

[Frobby]

How is Jones a better comp then Andrelton Simmons?

Simmons is a pretty good comp. In his favor, he has a bit more service time than Manny, and has a good chance to qualify as a Super-Two next year, whereas Manny has no chance. That's worth a few million in 2015, and sometimes that carries over in future arbitration raises. On Manny's side, he is three years younger than Simmons, and has more upside with the bat. I could see 7/$60 mm for Manny. But I'd prefer 9/$100.

[Redskins Rick]

He may indeed be worth $35m, but to drive the salary to that point you need multiple suitors. How many of the teams that might be able to afford him will flinch when it goes over $30 m?

Which is what was said many weeks ago. Trout could be the first person to have a $400 million dollar contract, but who can afford him?

[BradyBunch]

He may indeed be worth $35m, but to drive the salary to that point you need multiple suitors. How many of the teams that might be able to afford him will flinch when it goes over $30 m?

Texas, LA (both teams), Yankees and maybe Boston. He's the complete player. So it'll be easy for him to command that barring major injury.

[BradyBunch]

Which is what was said many weeks ago. Trout could be the first person to have a $400 million dollar contract, but who can afford him?

Teams with huge TV deals. West Coast teams and NYC.

[MurphDogg]

Texas, LA (both teams), Yankees and maybe Boston. He's the complete player. So it'll be easy for him to command that barring major injury.

Yep, and you only need 2.

[weams]

Trout has one more year at approximately league minimum, and then three arbitration years projected between 50-60M. Out of the rumored 6/150M deal, that leaves two years at 40-50M apiece. So I guess I was low, which only further proves my point that Trout isn't giving any kind of a discount in this hypothetical.

If he sets a record next year, that is 12. I was wrong because that would escalate to 16 and 22. so that is 40. No reason why he arbitrates more than that. If he remains the best player even. I don't care what WAR says his "value" is.

[Frobby]

Which is what was said many weeks ago. Trout could be the first person to have a $400 million dollar contract, but who can afford him?

Here is where I have a bit of a problem with WAR. Let's assume he's worth 10 WAR statistically. Does anyone think a team would be better off with Mike Trout in the OF and 4 replacement-level players at 4 other positions, as opposed to having 5 positions manned with players who are all solid major league starters (2 WAR each = average starter position player)? That seems very unlikely to me, but WAR analysis says it is so.

[Redskins Rick]

Teams with huge TV deals. West Coast teams and NYC.

Angels aren't sure they can afford him, so maybe the Dodgers and NYC, dont forget Boston.

But, the market is very limiedt with those that have that kind of payroll ability.

[BradyBunch]

Here is where I have a bit of a problem with WAR. Let's assume he's worth 10 WAR statistically. Does anyone think a team would be better off with Mike Trout in the OF and 4 replacement-level players at 4 other positions, as opposed to having 5 positions manned with players who are all solid major league starters (2 WAR each = average starter position player)? That seems very unlikely to me, but WAR analysis says it is so.

This isn't correct. If you have to get 5 2WAR players to replace 1 10WAR player then you are losing WARs not equaling them because you are assuming those players you replaced with 2 WARs were 0 WAR. That is not the case.

[Stotle]

I like Manny but even fully recovered he isn't close to Trout. I think Andrelton Simmons is a better starting off point.

Yup -- this is right.

[BradyBunch]

Angels aren't sure they can afford him, so maybe the Dodgers and NYC, dont forget Boston.

But, the market is very limiedt with those that have that kind of payroll ability.

Angels are caught between two minds. They "overpay" in Arb years and get two years of his FA. They are trying to do that as cheaply as possible. Hamilton's contract will be off the books in 2018 which is Trouts first FA year. I am pretty sure his FA year payment will be $35m range under the "contract" being discussed. So basically $70m of that contract will be the last 2 years and what they are basically doing is buying out his ARB years so they won't have to pony up $20m or more for those 3 years.