Scout tells SI: Jimenez overrated, Tillman underrated

[Teddy OBP]

In the weeks prior to their signings, most OH posters had these two on the bottom of their available Free Agent Christmas wish lists.

It seems like those were mostly "not at that price" objections. Getting potentially great financial deals for both of them changes the evaluation some for me.

[Redskins Rick]

It seems like those were mostly "not at that price" objections. Getting potentially great financial deals for both of them changes the evaluation some for me.

Jimenez is a high risk deal. IMO, but could deliver high rewards.

Cruz while not cheap, is only a 1 year deal, so it won't impact long term.

[Can_of_corn]

Not sure how Jimenez can be overrated. His past history speaks for itself. Just two seasons ago he had a terrible year and it would be foolish to think it couldn't happen again.

[Frobby]

You believe they are right in their judgement?

About these two players, or the team? As to the team, no. As to the scout's comments on Jimenez, they are fair enough, expect that we are not paying him enough to expect him to be a "dominant number one starter." 180 innings at an ERA of 4.00 is about what I am expecting. As to Tillman, I hope he is right. I think he'll be the best pitcher on our staff, but the real question is, can he do even better than last year, will he stay about the same, or will he regress a bit? I really liked the way he started pitching 7 innings on a pretty regular basis over the last few months of the season, and hope that carries over. I'll say 215 IP, same ERA as last year.

[Old#5fan]

I totally agree with this assessment. If Jason Hammel stays healthy he will out pitch Ubaldo who I agree is overrated.

[Redskins Rick]

I totally agree with this assessment. If Jason Hammel stays healthy he will out pitch Ubaldo who I agree is overrated.

Considering how much of a mediocre pitcher Hammel is, not sure how you can so boldly predict the future.

[LookinUp]

I'm not sure Jimenez's ability is overrated. I think he's every bit as good as people say when he's on. The question is whether he has those mechanics figured out or not. If not, he could bomb. If so, he's exactly what we hope. It's a matter of risk more than ability, IMO.

[AlbionHero]

I don't really get all of the national media and advanced stats saying we're a 77-79 win team. Even the Pirates are generally viewed as like 85+ wins by those same people and systems, and they are more unproven then we are. They didn't give us the benefit of the doubt last year but somehow the Pirates are?

[MDK02]

I totally agree with this assessment. If Jason Hammel stays healthy he will out pitch Ubaldo who I agree is overrated.

Maybe the media overrates him but I think most people on the board know what Ubaldo has to offer, he's going to be great at times and he's going to struggle from time to time.. I don't think anyone on here is expecting sub 3 ERA and 20 game winner. Sounds like you are overrating Hammel though.

[UpstateNYfan]

You can have the 20th best record in baseball and be a much better team than teams with better records. Division has an impact. Still, I'd be surprised if this team has fewer than 85 wins.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't really get all of the national media and advanced stats saying we're a 77-79 win team. Even the Pirates are generally viewed as like 85+ wins by those same people and systems, and they are more unproven then we are. They didn't give us the benefit of the doubt last year but somehow the Pirates are?

If the O's were in the NL folks wouldn't be predicting them to be a 77-79 win team. A lot of the pessimism thrown at the O's concerns how well the rest of the division is regarded.

[canonfaz]

I totally agree with this assessment. If Jason Hammel stays healthy he will out pitch Ubaldo who I agree is overrated.

We are paying Ubaldo to be a quality innings eater (more than 180 innings), something that Hammel never did for us.

"If" is a big question mark with Hammel. Here are their innings pitched over the last 3 years:

Jason Hammel

2011 - 170.1

2012 - 118.0

2013 - 139.1

Avg: 142.4

Ubaldo Jimenez

2011 - 188.1

2012 - 176.2

2013 - 182.2

Avg: 182.4

While, it's not impossible that Hammel has a better year than Jimenez, it's not probable.

[PA724_Oriole]

Not sure how Jimenez can be overrated. His past history speaks for itself. Just two seasons ago he had a terrible year and it would be foolish to think it couldn't happen again.

Agreed...he might be inconsistent but not overrated..I mean I dont think anyone puts Ubaldo on the same platform as Kershaw or Verlander so how is he overrated.

[Tony-OH]

I can understand the difference of opinions on Jimenez, and he will be either be a great signing and Duke is present a gold coin in his honor and a bronze statue on Eutaw Street.

Or he will be a bust and go down in the history books as the worse signing in Oriole history and Duke will be label an idiot.

You don't think there may be some shades of gray between those two extremes?

[PA724_Oriole]

We are paying Ubaldo to be a quality innings eater (more than 180 innings), something that Hammel never did for us.

"If" is a big question mark with Hammel. Here are their innings pitched over the last 3 years:

Jason Hammel

2011 - 170.1

2012 - 118.0

2013 - 139.1

Avg: 142.4

Ubaldo Jimenez

2011 - 188.1

2012 - 176.2

2013 - 182.2

Avg: 182.4

While, it's not impossible that Hammel has a better year than Jimenez, it's not probable.

Jason Hammel is also pitching in a bigger ballpark at wrigley and will be playing in a divison that has maybe two playoff potential teams compared to the 3-4 possible playoff teams in the AL east.