Last-minute attempt by O's to sign ace holding up trade

[wildcard]

However, IMO, there is a path to contention in a shorter period of time if the right moves are made.

(Fixed that for you there my good man. )

Fair enough. If we are not express our opinions here, what are we doing?

[Mackus]

Its even easier to envision a scenario where we decide to extend Bedard and BRob, dump a bunch of money in FAs, lose picks, neglect the system and suck for 10 years...Oh wait, that has already happened! I see no reason to think this organization will make the right decisions and not allow this to happen again. Plus, on top of that, the Orioles are unlikely carry a 120+ million dollar payroll and that will be needed.

I don't disagree with any particular part of this, but you can't eliminate the scenario as being possible. I think we can get up to a $110-120M payroll, and building a winner for that much around Bedard and Roberts wouldn't be impossible, it would be difficult though, and it would take a string of good moves which any one or two of wouldn't be unlikely, but pulling them all off without a bad move setting us back would be difficult.

No its not...One shouldn't have anything to do with the other. If you can get Pie and Gallagher, at least you get your everyday CFer and another arm to compete for a rotation spot or to trade for more positional talent.

If we could get Pie and Gallagher for Roberts, it'd be done by now. I'd do Murton and Gallagher though. And I agree they shouldn't be tied together, but they likely are.

[TinCup]

Fair enough. If we are not express our opinions here, what are we doing?

I've said the essentially the same thing myself and good on you for doing so. My playful post was simply to add my own emphasis that there is no certainty to what you say, just as, in fairness, there is no certainty to what happens if we trade Bedard/Brob. Ain't the O's situation great?

[wildcard]

I agree, if they make the right moves, they will compete sooner with Bedard and Roberts on the team than traded.

However, the margin on error for those moves will be much smaller. We can't make 50% good moves (which would be an improvement upon recent years). We'd need to make 75% or better good moves, and they'd have to be big moves. I also think the window of competition won't be as long as it would be if we did a rebuild.

The Trachsel and Tejada trades show better judgement then we have seen in the pass. We have to hope that MacPhail is up to the task.

[Fan4Life]

However, IMO, there is a path to contention in a shorter period of time if the right moves are made.

(Fixed that for you there my good man. )

I think the "If the right moves are made" is the key. Given that, I don't know how anybody could say we'll compete sooner having to replace a Cy Young pitcher, and establish an offense with a bunch of prospects. That may be the better path long term, but I can't see it short term.

[Sports Guy]

I don't disagree with any particular part of this, but you can't eliminate the scenario as being possible.

Sure I can....Look at what it would take to sign Tex, Bedard and BRob...Look at how the payroll goes up with arbitration guys. We aren't smart enough to lock guys up. Plus, you are then relying on 30 somethings to win.

I think we can get up to a $110-120M payroll, and building a winner for that much around Bedard and Roberts wouldn't be impossible, it would be difficult though, and it would take a string of good moves which any one or two of wouldn't be unlikely, but pulling them all off without a bad move setting us back would be difficult.

We can get the payroll that high but it is unlikely we will. Also, you assume that certain FAs will sign here if you go this route. If they don't, you are screwed.

If we could get Pie and Gallagher for Roberts, it'd be done by now. I'd do Murton and Gallagher though. And I agree they shouldn't be tied together, but they likely are.

This is 100% inaccurate.

[wildcard]

I've said the essentially the same thing myself and good on you for doing so. My playful post was simply to add my own emphasis that there is no certainty to what you say, just as, in fairness, there is no certainty to what happens if we trade Bedard/Brob. Ain't the O's situation great?

I think we are all reserving judgement on how great it is until we know how it turns out.

[wildcard]

Sure I can....Look at what it would take to sign Tex, Bedard and BRob...Look at how the payroll goes up with arbitration guys. We aren't smart enough to lock guys up. Plus, you are then relying on 30 somethings to win.

We can get the payroll that high but it is unlikely we will. Also, you assume that certain FAs will sign here if you go this route. If they don't, you are screwed.

This is 100% inaccurate.

But Bedard, Roberts and Tex would end up to be the only high paid players. The other veterans get traded as soon as their contracts are paid down to where someone will take them and the rest are young players.

[Mackus]

Sure I can....Look at what it would take to sign Tex, Bedard and BRob...Look at how the payroll goes up with arbitration guys. We aren't smart enough to lock guys up. Plus, you are then relying on 30 somethings to win.

I'm aware of what the payroll would be. But its not impossible to build a contender around Bedard and Roberts. Its not likely, but its not impossible.

We can get the payroll that high but it is unlikely we will. Also, you assume that certain FAs will sign here if you go this route. If they don't, you are screwed.

Yeah, I've already said that the margin for error in building a winner while keeping Bedard and Roberts is incredibly small. Almost any burdensome contracts handed out would derail it, another reason why its a poor idea.

This is 100% inaccurate.

I don't think there is any chance Pie and Gallagher are on the table or even a possibility. I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong, but I'm thinking DaveArm is gonna be enjoying some crabcakes courtes of Peace come spring training time.

[Ruzious]

I think thats a simplistically grim outlook.

Its very easy to envision a scenario where signing Bedard is better, and possibly even far better, than trading him. Theres a very realistic chance none of the prospects ever become anything better than average MLBers, if that. Its just the risk you run with prospects. Of course theres also risk the other way with dumping a ton of money into Bedard.

The only other trade that is really going to improve the team is Roberts. Since its inarguable that extending Bedard could be better than trading him, I really don't think the lynchpin of the next 3-5 years of this franchise is whether we have Brian Roberts or Sean Gallagher. I'd still definitely trade him, but if you keep Bedard, keeping Roberts is understandeable as well, as your new competition timeframe becomes 2009, not 2010 and beyond.

It does neccesitate a ton of spending next offseason, because obviously the team isn't competing as currently arranged.

I still think trading these guys is the right move, but you can't say it definitely will cripple the team over the next 3-5 years. What will determine that is how well our current young players develop and how smartly we spend our other money. Do they prospects all flop, or become solid regulars on the cheap? Do we sign good players to smart deals, or keep announcing the Jay Payton's and Danys Baez-type deals?

Not trading them means you're chasing mediocrity for several more years before you finally do come to the conclusion that you've got to rebuild. They just do not have enough talent to build a winner around Bedard and Roberts. They'd be spending 110 - 120 mil on a team trying to reach .500 - which doesn't make much sense. If you trade Bedard and Roberts, you develop the low paid young players you get back, and then you can afford to sign free agents of the quality of Bedard and Roberts.

[Mackus]

But Bedard, Roberts and Tex would end up to be the only high paid players. The other veterans get traded as soon as their contracts are paid down to where someone will take them and the rest are young players.

What young players? Our prospects would have to develop at nearly a 100% rate to fill out the roster.

We'd need either perfect development or to make nothing but brilliant FA signings. One thing goes wrong and we have little to no chance of competing given the other constraints.

[section18]

We have had almost any kind of post on here you can imagine dealing with the possible trades of Bedard and Roberts. Does anybody know how many posts have occurred this off season? Better question?....how many hours have all of us spent on OH reading these posts and replying to other members comments?

Does anyone think we have spent more hours on here discussing possible trades than the entire front office and scouts have this off season? Maybe we are confusing Andy and Peter. Are we giving them too much to think about? Maybe we should just all collectively do a post that says do it ....do it....do it over and over for a couple of days and stop confusing them.

Is this meant to be humorous? Maybe! Maybe not. There are some Oriole officials that do read OH and they talk to each other all of the time.

If we think the Mariners deal is the best and we want as I said a couple of days ago......Jones, Morrow, Sherrill and Tillman or we add whatever it takes to sweeten the deal to get Triunfel included we should all just respond by saying Do it Andy......Do it Andy......Do it Andy to give him added confidence and let him know we are behind him.

I still think it will happen by February1 - tomorrow......but not announced until the physicals are completed. Anybody checking the downtown hotels for any of the above names checking into the Renaissance Hotel today or tomorrow where most of the visiting teams stay? or the Sheraton Inner Harbor?

We have gotten Bedard's agent to throw out some numbers on Bedard and now the other teams know what kind of money it will take to extend him. Cheaper than Santana for sure. There could be some other teams that get involved late but I still think the Seattle deal will happen unless Peter just decides to be stubborn and choose another team to show their delay got them a better deal elsewhere.

It will happen soon.....before or after the Super bowl?

[Fan4Life]

What young players? Our prospects would have to develop at nearly a 100% rate to fill out the roster.

We'd need either perfect development or to make nothing but brilliant FA signings. One thing goes wrong and we have little to no chance of competing given the other constraints.

So which is the bigger IF?

That we sign Bedard/BRob and make additional moves(some costly ones) that fill out a balanced team

OR

We trade Bedard/BRob for almost 100% prospects and ALL of them have to produce at or above replacement level players at some point or allow us to trade them for players that do, as well as the hole left by Bedard being filled by a current player or a cheap one down the road

[Baroquen131]

So which is the bigger IF?

That we sign Bedard/BRob and make additional moves(some costly ones) that fill out a balanced team

OR

We trade Bedard/BRob for almost 100% prospects and ALL of them have to produce at or above replacement level players at some point or allow us to trade them for players that do, as well as the hole left by Bedard being filled by a current player or a cheap one down the road

I think any plan that requires FAs to sign here over everywhere else is a really big IF.

[Fan4Life]

I think any plan that requires FAs to sign here over everywhere else is a really big IF.

Do you see it being more likely they would if our team is comprised mostly of prospects?