Last-minute attempt by O's to sign ace holding up trade

[davearm]

In this analysis, not a single one of the young players on the verge of the majors contributes a thing. Not Liz, Olson, Hooey, Moore, Patton, Albers, Costanzo, McCrory, or Reimold. If none of those guys step up at all, we're screwed regardless of whether we trade Roberts and Bedard or not.

I considered discussing all of those guys (and some others, most notably Wieters), but frankly, my post was ridiculously long already. Your point is well taken though. Some of the wins the O's will need to manufacture to become contenders will indeed need to come from within the system.

I still maintain that from where they are now, making up ~30 wins with the young talent they have coming up, plus buying some on the FA market, is not a viable plan. The guys in the system are just not likely to be enough of an upgrade on what's there. For example Reimold would have to be significantly better than Scott, Liz significantly better than Cabrera, Albers significantly better than Guthrie, etc.

I might feel differently if the O's system was about to produce young high-upside guys that fit the most glaring needs (SS, 3B CF, 1B).

But since that's not the case, a big chunk of that 30-win deficit is going to need to come from leveraging the number of win Bedard and Roberts can provide now, to multiples of those amounts a few years from now.

[Rex Thunder]

The Bluejays had great starting pitching last season and were competitive last season in the AL East with an 83-79 record. But one has to ponder if offense was the deciding factor between Boston and Toronto last season. It appears to these eyes that balance carried the day in 2007.

Assuming Bedard is extended will starting pitching be able provide a foundation for Oriole teams to be competitive in the near future? Beyond Bedard it seems that there are a number of questions regarding the Orioles starting pitching. It would seem that the performances of Cabrera, Loewen, and Guthrie are the fulcrum of success and failure. Any chance that Kranitz is able to get Loewen and Cabrera's walks under control? And who emerges from the minors to round out the starting staff? Penn? Patton? Liz? Albers?

I am curious as to everyone's thoughts.

Think about it- were the Orioles REALLY that far away from contending with the Yankees and red Sox last season? If I recall correctly we took like the first 5 of 6 from the Yankees- and the one loss was on a blown save. So by keeping our starting rotation going- assuming they stay healthy and remain at a high level or better- if we can ONCE AGAIN attempt to assimilate at least AN AVERAGE BULLPEN- we will be right there. Our offense WAS NOT the problem last year. They were streaky yes- but a lot of energy was drained from the team after EVERY BLOWN SAVE kept piling up...

Everyone has such short term memory around here. Let's not forget we are in the toughest division in baseball- so yes- we will need more balance to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox... but if you want to see how wella team with a great offense does- just look at Tampa Bay... Look at their outfield.

They have a stacked outfield- and now their infield is catching up- but guess what- we still finished well above them because of our pitching- AND THAT'S AFTER all the injuries and the worst luck in the majors last year, IMO. What did Tampa do this off-season? They signed James Shields to an extension, and I believe they are still trying to sign Kazmir to an extension. Now yes, you'll argue they don't have the holes I assume... but my point is, with the ALL the supposed holes we had last year- was our offense really the problem? I mean, seriously?

Baseball is all about momentum in a long season- and what do they say that is in baseball. I believe the quote goes something like, "Momentum is as good as your next day's starting pitcher."

Now the Orioles bullpen stalled their momentum last year- not to mention some ill-advised, at the worst possible time- calls by Perlozzo... but the fact remains, the Orioles were surprising us last year for a good while, playing through one tough time after another.

There were LOTS of positives to take form last season. Tell me ONE TEAM that doesn't have holes. I know the Red Sox come close- but let's get real- comparing your team to the Red Sox right now is like my sister comparing herself to Heidi Klum every day, and my sister is attractive. It's not gonna be productive.

The White Sox won a World Series- and then fell apart. The Tigers, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Cardinals... ALL teams who made the World series (3 won)- and how did they get there? with STARTING PITCHING! The Cardinals maybe not quite as much- a weak NL and mistake prone Tigers teams may have helped- but the point is- most of those teams had had years of losing behind them when they went on their runs... The Orioles just keep falling into a negative mindset once the losing snowball forms and it's been tough to get out of.

It's my feeling they are about to turn a page- with or without Bedard... but to assume this trade will no doubt make us better is a false assumption, IMO.

Even if Adam Jones turns out to be a stud- AT LEAST one of the other prospects better turn out to be above average for us- or I still look at it as a bad deal, if we couldve re-signed Bedard. There are not guarantees about any prospects- so I'd say 2 out of 4 is a GREAT ratio for success, if it hits.

Bedard may not have more than a nar full season of domination- but he's highly coveted for a reason- he's homegrown- and barring injury- there's no reason to think he won't contend for the Cy Young this year.... That fact alone is enough for me to believe Tex and other potential free agents would consider Baltimore in 2009...

okay... ive said enough... sorry for the long winded read

[RShack]

If we need to trade Bedard to make other moves and that appears to be the case, i have no idea how anyone could advocate signing Bedard.

This franchise is doomed for the next 3-5 years if these trades aren't made.

It's gonna take this franchise 3-5 years to become good anyway, and that's true whether AM makes big dramatic trades or not. There is a perfectly legitimate argument about the best way to get from here to there, with "there" = "being consistently competitive with the MFY's and BOS and everybody else". But saying that big dramatic trades somehow permit us to expect it in less than 3-5 years is IMO completely naive.

[JourneyFan]

It's gonna take this franchise 3-5 years to become good anyway, and that's true whether AM makes big dramatic trades or not. There is a perfectly legitimate argument about the best way to get from here to there, with "there" = "being consistently competitive with the MFY's and BOS and everybody else". But saying that big dramatic trades somehow permit us to expect it in less than 3-5 years is IMO completely naive.

In that case our Opening Day games will start looking like the Indians' OD in Major League, and even the "canned" crowd cheering crap won't do squat. Fans may hold on if there are signs of progress, but the Orioles have made zilch in that arena so far. Every year it's rinse and repeat.

[allstar1579]

In that case our Opening Day games will start looking like the Indians' OD in Major League, and even the "canned" crowd cheering crap won't do squat. Fans may hold on if there are signs of progress, but the Orioles have made zilch in that arena so far. Every year it's rinse and repeat.

You couldn't BE more right.

Your starting pitcher: Daniel Cabrera

JUST a bit outside.

Ball 4.

Ball 12.

Ball 24.

[PA fan]

If bedard signs an extension, is he more or less valuable in a trade? Assume there is not a no-trade clause or just a limited trade list. Sorry if this was already posted.

[ON BASE %]

Think about it- were the Orioles REALLY that far away from contending with the Yankees and red Sox last season?

okay... ive said enough... sorry for the long winded read

Yes the Orioles were really that far away from contending. The talent level wasn't even close.

To illustrate the difference between Boston and Toronto please see:

Runs scored by AL East Teams in 2007

NYY: 968

BOS: 867

TAM: 782

BAL: 756

TOR: 753

Rex, you said that Tampa had a great offense. I'm not sure if 782 runs scored is great in this era. Perhaps in the 1960's but not today.

Our offense was part of the problem, there is no denying that. Recent Oriole teams have been undisciplined and sorely lacking in extra base power. Even if the Orioles dedicate more resources to pitching they should at least try to improve their hitters approaches. More plate discipline is needed and will lead to more pitches per plate appearance, walks, and runs. I have serious concerns about Crowley's ability to enact this change.

The Bluejays starting pitching was outstanding last season and provided them a foundation to be competitive. It's too bad for them that they couldn't muster enough offense to get to the playoffs.

The bigger question which I asked was how do we improve the starting pitching? Any chance that Kranitz is able to get Loewen and Cabrera's walks under control? And who emerges from the minors to round out the starting staff? Penn? Patton? Liz? Albers?

[allstar1579]

If bedard signs an extension, is he more or less valuable in a trade? Assume there is not a no-trade clause or just a limited trade list. Sorry if this was already posted.

If he extends, he does not get traded. But at this point, he is being traded.

[Rex Thunder]

Yes the Orioles were really that far away from contending. The talent level wasn't even close.

To illustrate the difference between Boston and Toronto please see:

Runs scored by AL East Teams in 2007

NYY: 968

BOS: 867

TAM: 782

BAL: 756

TOR: 753

Rex, you said that Tampa had a great offense. I'm not sure if 782 runs scored is great in this era. Perhaps in the 1960's but not today.

Our offense was part of the problem, there is no denying that. Recent Oriole teams have been undisciplined and sorely lacking in extra base power. Even if the Orioles dedicate more resources to pitching they should at least try to improve their hitters approaches. More plate discipline is needed and will lead to more pitches per plate appearance, walks, and runs. I have serious concerns about Crowley's ability to enact this change.

The Bluejays starting pitching was outstanding last season and provided them a foundation to be competitive. It's too bad for them that they couldn't muster enough offense to get to the playoffs.

The bigger question which I asked was how do we improve the starting pitching? Any chance that Kranitz is able to get Loewen and Cabrera's walks under control? And who emerges from the minors to round out the starting staff? Penn? Patton? Liz? Albers?

To me- there will always bem ore important factors than stats show. Thanks for the "facts." IMO, it's more about attitude and chemistry with the Orioles. Their offense was prolific in spurts, but always seemed to fall apart after a couple deflating defeats. For the first quarter of the season, I could have sworn we were leading in quite a few offensive categories. The Orioles just need to get over the psychological hump- and once they do, I think the offense will sustain itself for longer stretches.

In terms of numbers- you also have to remember- that after all the injuries, blown saves, mental hangups- and everything else that went wrong with the O's last season- they began tinkering with the lineup AND playing prospects for the final month or more of the season. Not that that would effect run totals to a great degree- but I'd bet it's a factor.

The orioles were right there for the 1st 3rd of the season- and it fell apart. It didn't have to... and new blood and I'll say it again- a solid rotation with an adequate bullpen will put us in the thick of it.

The question is- how to get the adequate bullpen- after having tried and failed for so long...

[DrungoHazewood]

IMO, the majority of the wins you need to makeup will come from pitching, SP and Bullpen. Can someone calculate for me what our record would have been last season with a 4.50 bullpen ERA?

Somewhere in the mid- to high-70s. A 4.50 pen ERA would mean something like a 75-run improvement. And that works out to 7-8 wins, give or take.

[ON BASE %]

To me- there will always bem ore important factors than stats show. Thanks for the "facts." IMO, it's more about attitude and chemistry with the Orioles. Their offense was prolific in spurts, but always seemed to fall apart after a couple deflating defeats. For the first quarter of the season, I could have sworn we were leading in quite a few offensive categories. The Orioles just need to get over the psychological hump- and once they do, I think the offense will sustain itself for longer stretches.

In terms of numbers- you also have to remember- that after all the injuries, blown saves, mental hangups- and everything else that went wrong with the O's last season- they began tinkering with the lineup AND playing prospects for the final month or more of the season. Not that that would effect run totals to a great degree- but I'd bet it's a factor.

The orioles were right there for the 1st 3rd of the season- and it fell apart. It didn't have to... and new blood and I'll say it again- a solid rotation with an adequate bullpen will put us in the thick of it.

The question is- how to get the adequate bullpen- after having tried and failed for so long...

I'm half joking but the Orioles probably were probably leading the league in singles and steals.

I think if they have a more disciplined approach the offense will sustain itself over long stretches. Unlike the pitching I think what you see is what you get. Scott should help offset the loss of Tejada and if the current team is kept together I'm thinking we score about 700-750 runs. Like you alluded to, consistency would help a great deal in this department.

It's just my opinion but I think Trembley will handle the bullpen better than Perlozzo. I might be in the minority but I like that MacPhail has brought in a quantity of arms, in particular Safarte. I'm very pleased that they didn't sink more money into the bullpen this winter.

It's a general statement but there is some upside to the pitching staff. Much like I thought a few years ago it's possible for Kranitz to come in and make a difference. But given how volatile young pitching can be I have no idea what to expect this year.

Hopefully Trembley will help us with the intangibles, the areas which stats don't address.

[NCRaven]

In that case our Opening Day games will start looking like the Indians' OD in Major League, and even the "canned" crowd cheering crap won't do squat. Fans may hold on if there are signs of progress, but the Orioles have made zilch in that arena so far. Every year it's rinse and repeat.

Didn't the Indians make it to the playoffs in "Major League." I'd take that.