Who goes and who stays in 2015

[weams]

Know the market. Miller has dominating numbers. He's an attractive option for a team like the Yankees even if they resign Robertson. Miller will get a minimum of 3/21 from some team.

A minimum. He is the rocket shot Free Agent and he knows it is his time to cash in.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Exercise a 17 million dollar option on a mediocre RFer? No thanks. We can get the same kind of value from a number of cheaper options. David Lough and Alejandro De Aza can basically do what Nick does for far, far less.

I'd rather spend likely less than half of that on Colby Rasmus or Norichika Aoki.

In a vacuum, I would agree that Nick is not worth $17 million.

But the reality is that we are going to have at least one, maybe two OF holes to address this offseason if we decline his option as neither Lough nor De Aza look like everyday players at this point. Platoon or reserve options certainly, but I would not be comfortable with either guy getting 500+ PAs next year based on their 2014 performances. And the FA agent options aren't exactly inspiring either- Rasmus has a sub-.300 OBP this year and Aoki has been worth a whopping 0.1 rWAR in 2014.

And they represent 2 of the "better" FA OFs available this winter.

Factor in Nick's $2 million dollar buyout, and $15 million for one year when there aren't a whole lot of good alternatives begins to sound somewhat reasonable for a team that ostensibly plans to compete again in 2015.

[Babypowder]

In a vacuum, I would agree that Nick is not worth $17 million.

But the reality is that we are going to have at least one, maybe two OF holes to address this offseason if we decline his option as neither Lough nor De Aza look like everyday players at this point. Platoon or reserve options certainly, but I would not be comfortable with either guy getting 500+ PAs next year based on their 2014 performances. And the FA agent options aren't exactly inspiring either- Rasmus has a sub-.300 OBP this year and Aoki has been worth a whopping 0.1 rWAR in 2014.

And they represent 2 of the "better" FA OFs available this winter.

Factor in Nick's $2 million dollar buyout, and $15 million for one year when there aren't a whole lot of good alternatives begins to sound somewhat reasonable for a team that ostensibly plans to compete again in 2015.

De Aza has been a 2+ win player the last 3 seasons before this year. Markakis hasn't been a 2 win player since 2010. Lough has been comparably as valuable as Nick despite little playing time because he is a much better defender. Nick Markakis is a mediocre defender with a low .700s OPS bat. He's very replaceable and it shouldn't even be considered to pick up his option or extend him a qualifying offer in my opinion.

[Reboulet'sStache]

In a vacuum, I would agree that Nick is not worth $17 million.

But the reality is that we are going to have at least one, maybe two OF holes to address this offseason if we decline his option as neither Lough nor De Aza look like everyday players at this point. Platoon or reserve options certainly, but I would not be comfortable with either guy getting 500+ PAs next year based on their 2014 performances. And the FA agent options aren't exactly inspiring either- Rasmus has a sub-.300 OBP this year and Aoki has been worth a whopping 0.1 rWAR in 2014.

And they represent 2 of the "better" FA OFs available this winter.

Factor in Nick's $2 million dollar buyout, and $15 million for one year when there aren't a whole lot of good alternatives begins to sound somewhat reasonable for a team that ostensibly plans to compete again in 2015.

Are there really no better options than a 1.4 WAR player this year, and a -0.3 WAR player last year? I just don't see how that kind of production is hard to replace, let alone so hard where you have to spend 17 million.

[El Gordo]

Know the market. Miller has dominating numbers. He's an attractive option for a team like the Yankees even if they resign Robertson. Miller will get a minimum of 3/21 from some team.

That is closer money and he isn't a proven close with one career save.

[El Gordo]

Are there really no better options than a 1.4 WAR player this year' date=' and a -0.3 WAR player last year? I just don't see how that kind of production is hard to replace, let alone so hard where you have to spend 17 million.[/quote']Michael Cuddyer, career: .278 .346 .464 .810. At age 35 shouldn't get more than the 10M he makes now, and more than 2 years. That would be an upgrade over Nick IMO. He would be one of several role players including Pearce, De Aza, Berry/Lough and maybe Cruz.

[weams]

I can see us "selling high" and trading one of Norris or Gonzalez. I don't think the org's ready to quit on the 3/38 Ubaldo has left, and that means creating a job opening. Barring injury, if our current five and Ubaldo are all rostered next spring, there's no way Ubaldo can get a rotation slot. By org, I mean Duquette more than Buck.

There would be no selling high. A return like was had for Tommy Milone is what could be expected. Norris is expensive also.

[weams]

Are there really no better options than a 1.4 WAR player this year' date=' and a -0.3 WAR player last year? I just don't see how that kind of production is hard to replace, let alone so hard where you have to spend 17 million.[/quote']

Nick is not getting that money from the Orioles. I would believe he may get an extension though.

[OFFNY]

A minimum. He is the rocket shot Free Agent and he knows it is his time to cash in.

Thanks, Mike.

[El Gordo]

A minimum. He is the rocket shot Free Agent and he knows it is his time to cash in.

So you believe he will be making more than Wade Davis, Carlos Villanueva, Luke Gregerson, Luke Hochevar, Joe Smith, J.P. Howell, Joakim Soria, Sean Marshall, and Tyler Clippard? They are all making 5M

[El Gordo]

How many of them were FA's when they got the 5M?

How many of them had career ave: 87 ERA+, 4.15 FIP, 1.575 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.0 BB/9 8.8 K/9 1.78 K/BB, as a FA? He's been good the past couple of years but not that good.

[Crazysilver03]

How many of them had career ave: 87 ERA+, 4.15 FIP, 1.575 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.0 BB/9 8.8 K/9 1.78 K/BB, as a FA? He's been good the past couple of years but not that good.

Really? You are citing his career numbers? Are you intentionally being dense and including all the years he was a starter? Once he became a full time reliever in 2012 he started posting positive ERA+ and has only improved each year leading into his free agency year. That is what teams are going to pay for. No one cares what his starter ERA was in 2009.

[weams]

Really? You are citing his career numbers? Are you intentionally being dense and including all the years he was a starter? Once he became a full time reliever in 2012 he started posting positive ERA+ and has only improved each year leading into his free agency year. That is what teams are going to pay for. No one cares what his starter ERA was in 2009.

He will get closer money. Think B.J. Ryan.

[Crazysilver03]

He will get closer money. Think B.J. Ryan.

Lets not go all the way to the other extreme on this. No reliever has gotten BJ Ryan money in a while and Miller won't change that. Teams are shying away from the high priced relievers/closers. Miller will be lucky to come within 80% of Soriano's contract, which Washington is doing everything to make not vest for next year.

[weams]

Lets not go all the way to the other extreme on this. No reliever has gotten BJ Ryan money in a while and Miller won't change that. Teams are shying away from the high priced relievers/closers. Miller will be lucky to come within 80% of Soriano's contract, which Washington is doing everything to make not vest for next year.

Oh no. I don't think that he would get that contract. Just the inflation of the next big thing.