Who goes and who stays in 2015

[El Gordo]

I am sure everyone would rather have Hardy at SS and Manny at 3rd but you have to live within a payroll and figure out how to field a team that can compete as much as possible in that payroll. We can't be a team that pays 13 million to Adam, 12 million to Davis, 11 million to Ubaldo, and 9 million to Weiters and another 12-15 million to Hardy and stay competitive IMO. That is more then half our payroll most likely and only 5 positions.

You are making too much out of one year at 15 M, they can absorb that easily IMO. The idea is to win now. We lose the salaries of Davis and Wieters the following year and we will have a either greatly reduced Markakis salary or not at all. Replacing Manny with Schoop could cost you 24 M in production.

[DrOrioles90210]

I would not be opposed to trading Wieters and rolling with CJ. Wieters is more expendable than JJ in my opinion.

Caleb Joseph has an OPS of .570, a wRC+ of 57, and a wOBA of .258.

[El Gordo]

Most of that 6 WAR was based off of defensive metrics. I believe Manny had an amazing season defensively last year, but most people who work with those numbers agree that a three year sample is what you want to look at. Manny may never come close to those numbers again even if he continues to play amazing defense at third.

I disagree. Manny still has things to learn about the position and a player's defense tends to improve to age 24-25. Manny is in his age 21 YO season. I think he is a 3 WAR defensive 3B and his bat will improve to 3WAR on offense.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I am sure everyone would rather have Hardy at SS and Manny at 3rd but you have to live within a payroll and figure out how to field a team that can compete as much as possible in that payroll. We can't be a team that pays 13 million to Adam, 12 million to Davis, 11 million to Ubaldo, and 9 million to Weiters and another 12-15 million to Hardy and stay competitive IMO. That is more then half our payroll most likely and only 5 positions.

Yeah, the O's are in a tough spot. They probably should have traded some of these guys like Davis and Hardy when their trade value peaked, in order to get some Wil Myers, just add water ready type prospects. Those guys would have been cheap and ready to be added to the core about the same time our best chance for a WS (the addition of some combination of the pitching prospects) were ready. Then they could have gone out made a splash or two in FA to add whatever final pieces were missing.

Now they are kind of in this middle ground where they will almost have to take on some bad contracts just to maintain their current standing as the second tier team, because the farm system isn't good enough yet to replenish.

[DrOrioles90210]

I disagree. Manny still has things to learn about the position and a player's defense tends to improve to age 24-25. Manny is in his age 21 YO season. I think he is a 3 WAR defensive 3B and his bat will improve to 3WAR on offense.

My main point is, why not give him the opportunity to play SS? Jhonny Peralta and Erick Aybar are the second and third best SSs in baseball according to fWAR. Not second and third best available this offseason, second and third best period. Manny has the ability to become one of two superstar SSs in the game. There is much more talent in the game at 3B right now.

[El Gordo]

Not saying this is the long term answer but maybe Stephen Drew for one year at probably half of what Hardy would cost, allowing you to leave Manny and Schoop alone and give you some financial flexibility to retain Nick and have maybe a little left over to address LF..:thumbsup1:

Drew is making 14.1 M prorated this season.

[El Gordo]

My main point is, why not give him the opportunity to play SS? Jhonny Peralta and Erick Aybar are the second and third best SSs in baseball according to fWAR. Not second and third best available this offseason, second and third best period. Manny has the ability to become one of two superstar SSs in the game. There is much more talent in the game at 3B right now.

I don't see Manny being a 3 WAR defender at SS. I don't think he'll have the range and SS is a more demanding position. You might be able to trade for an Aybar or Andrus if you are willing to give up the right SP, and Hardy will probably cost less than Peralta. The only 3B capable of replacing Manny are Longoria, Donaldson, Beltre, Seeger, and Carpenter. They are unlikely to be traded anytime soon.

[Aristotelian]

.. which translates to $10 mil this year. Doubt he gets that in an open market next year (and certainly not from the Red Sox) since there were few bidders for his services this past offseason. He seems like someone you could grab on the cheap for two years...

JJ destroys Drew defensively; their career OPS is about the same. If the money is anywhere close, I would rather have JJ at the most important defensive position on the field.

Hardy may get stuck in the same position as Drew where nobody wants to pay $14 million plus a comp pick. His best option could be to extend with us now at a discount.

[El Gordo]

JJ destroys Drew defensively; their career OPS is about the same. If the money is anywhere close, I would rather have JJ at the most important defensive position on the field.

Hardy may get stuck in the same position as Drew where nobody wants to pay $14 million plus a comp pick. His best option could be to extend with us now at a discount.

Who is going to pay Hardy 4/50M and give up a pick? BOS? I think they want to move Bogaerts to SS. MFY? Maybe but I think they would prefer Hanley.

[webbrick2010]

Hardy's agent comes to you this winter and says, we have a Jhonny Peralta type offer from another team. Hardy will give you a hometown discount of around 10%. We are looking for 4/48 from you. Do you do that deal?

No way... are you guys not paying attention.

Hardy is not hitting HRs, his BB rate is down, his K rate is up, he had a stretch of games where he booted some routine ground balls. This is all consistent with a player who is being overtaken by Father Time.

I'd risk making a QO, or go something like 2/18, but no way do you give Hardy a 4 year deal.

[backwardsk]

No way... are you guys not paying attention.

Hardy is not hitting HRs, his BB rate is down, his K rate is up, he had a stretch of games where he booted some routine ground balls. This is all consistent with a player who is being overtaken by Father Time.

I'd risk making a QO, or go something like 2/18, but no way do you give Hardy a 4 year deal.

Which is my point. I don't see Hardy in a position to need to take a significant discount. If Peralta got that type of contract, I easily see some team offering that to him. If he chooses not to take the QO, there needs to be a plan in place to either replace him or replace 3B.

[backwardsk]

The qualifying offer would be pretty high and i can't see them doing that. As we have said we will be around 80-85 million depending on how the arbitration guys perform over the rest of the year and the final numbers. If you give Hardy 10 million that gets us around 95 million and still with two huge holes. So Peter will have to increase payroll or we will have to fill them with cheaper free agents.

There's going to be a lot of calculus going on with so many players due raises. I was surprised at how much payroll went up toward the end of winter with the Jimenez signing, Santana signing, and the Hundley acquisition. Also, they said they had room for Ervin Santana. So I think it's conceivable that an additional increase will happen. I do think that one of, or a combination of, Britton, Tillman, and Norris will be moved to get a modest cost/high impact position player if they lose out on two or three of Cruz, Hardy, and Markakis.

[bpilktree]

You are making too much out of one year at 15 M, they can absorb that easily IMO. The idea is to win now. We lose the salaries of Davis and Wieters the following year and we will have a either greatly reduced Markakis salary or not at all. Replacing Manny with Schoop could cost you 24 M in production.

I still don't see them going with a payroll of 115 million or so which is what they would need to have in order to pay Hardy 15 million and also sign Nick for around 10 million and fill the DH hole. If you let Nick go you have to find someone that can keep a good average and also lead off and play decent defense though range is down he still throws wells and saves runners from taking an extra base.

The best option IMO is to use Bud Norris as trade bait for a young SS or third baseman and resign Nick and then add another outfielder to the team allowing Pearce to move to DH.

[wildcard]

You are going from a 6+WAR 3B to a 2.5 WAR 3B best case scenario. No guarantee Manny will be a 6 WAR SS. I doubt it actually.

The guy that would be leaving would be Hardy not Manny. And it would Hardy's choice to go for higher money. I'm sure the O's would make a reasonable offer.

[wildcard]

Offering Hardy 15M is a pretty big deal. How many O's have ever made 15M per year? I can only think of one.