Who goes and who stays in 2015

[El Gordo]

Oh no. I don't think that he would get that contract. Just the inflation of the next big thing.

More like 5M. Closer money is 10M

[El Gordo]

Rodney got 2/14 from the Mariners. Balfour was going to get the same from the O's. Miller will get the 7M or more and will get 3 years.

Balfour was 36 years old going into the 2014 season, with ERA + ranging from 149-172 over the preceeding 4 years and WAR ranging from 1.2-2.3

Rodney was 37 years old going into the 2014 season and after a career year in 2013 was down to a 114 ERA + (more along his career avg) and a .5 WAR also more along his career average.

Andrew Miller turns 30 years old next May. His ERA+ was 158 in 2013 and is 190 in 2014. His WAR is currently at .9. He's averaged 14+ strikeouts per 9 innings the last two years and this year has a career best 2.5 walks per 9.

You think Miller gets 5M. How many years to you think he gets? I'll go with a minimum of 3/21 but I would not be surprised to see 3/30 from someone. I guess we'll see.

Miller has no track record as a closer. He won't get closer money even if someone signs him to be their closer. He hasn't proved himself as one yet. 5-6 M max IMO.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Miller will probably close next year for the Red Sox.

[luismatos4prez]

Why get rid of Hunter, he won't make much more than 4M in arb. Miller is making 1.9 M so I don't see him being more than 5M as a FA. He might be worth that. Same with Norris he won't be much more than 7 M in arb. That's not too expensive. I could see him going in a trade but not non tendered. Delmon could stay if we don't sign Cruz.

4M is more than I'm willing to pay for Tommy Hunter.

I think Miller will get at least 3/18. That's more than I'm willing to pay for Andrew Miller.

Bud Norris is absolutely worth the 7.5M I think he'll get next year. But the Orioles don't have deep enough pockets to be paying 7.5M for back of the rotation starters, in my opinion. We're going to have to roll into the year with Tillman, Chen, Jimenez, Gonzo, and KG. Bundy, Wright, Wilson, etc. can serve as depth.

I expect Norris and Lough to be traded in the offseason. Get some cheap bullpen guys maybe. Matusz and Hunter can be non-tendered. I hope to extend Markakis (3/30), Cruz(2/26), and Hardy(4/50). I want both De Aza and Pearce fighting for at bats.

RF Markakis

3B Machado

CF Jones

DH Cruz

1B Davis

C Wieters

LF De Aza/Pearce

SS Hardy

2B Schoop

Flash, Joseph, DeAza/Pearce, some utility guy

That team comes in under 110 by my count.

[Aristotelian]

This will not be a popular idea, but another to consider: O'Day is not getting any cheaper. $4.25 million team option next year. Going by the "buy low, sell high" principle, he could get some legit prospects in return (unlike Matusz and Tommy). $4.25m is still a really good value for what he has given this year, but is he capable of that two years in a row? I would not just let him walk, but pick up his option, then see if we get any offers we can't refuse.

[Babypowder]

4M is more than I'm willing to pay for Tommy Hunter.

I think Miller will get at least 3/18. That's more than I'm willing to pay for Andrew Miller.

Bud Norris is absolutely worth the 7.5M I think he'll get next year. But the Orioles don't have deep enough pockets to be paying 7.5M for back of the rotation starters, in my opinion. We're going to have to roll into the year with Tillman, Chen, Jimenez, Gonzo, and KG. Bundy, Wright, Wilson, etc. can serve as depth.

I expect Norris and Lough to be traded in the offseason. Get some cheap bullpen guys maybe. Matusz and Hunter can be non-tendered. I hope to extend Markakis (3/30), Cruz(2/26), and Hardy(4/50). I want both De Aza and Pearce fighting for at bats.

RF Markakis

3B Machado

CF Jones

DH Cruz

1B Davis

C Wieters

LF De Aza/Pearce

SS Hardy

2B Schoop

Flash, Joseph, DeAza/Pearce, some utility guy

That team comes in under 110 by my count.

I wouldn't want Markakis at that price. We are talking about a sub 2 win player here. He's replaceable at much cheaper commitments than 30 million. I think Cruz gets a longer and more lucrative deal than that elsewhere. You really want Hardy at 4/50?

[Reboulet'sStache]

This will not be a popular idea, but another to consider: O'Day is not getting any cheaper. $4.25 million team option next year. Going by the "buy low, sell high" principle, he could get some legit prospects in return (unlike Matusz and Tommy). $4.25m is still a really good value for what he has given this year, but is he capable of that two years in a row? I would not just let him walk, but pick up his option, then see if we get any offers we can't refuse.

If the return was right, I'd be open to the idea of trading O'Day. Although he strikes me as the kind of player that nets you a bigger return during the season. And unless you are Billy Beane, most GM's aren't going to sell high on an important part of the big league club, unless you are losing, which we all hope isn't the case next year.

[mdbdotcom]

I can't help but think that how the season ends could make a big difference on who stays or goes. Will we go down as soon as the ALDS, win the WS, or finish somewhere in-between?

The playoff run could determine if the FO decides to make another run for it next year, retool for another window, or try to do both at once. Lots of decisions to be made, but not yet.

[Aristotelian]

If the return was right' date=' I'd be open to the idea of trading O'Day. Although he strikes me as the kind of player that nets you a bigger return during the season. And unless you are Billy Beane, most GM's aren't going to sell high on an important part of the big league club, unless you are losing, which we all hope isn't the case next year.[/quote']

You may be right, but if you look at the Miller trade as a comp, I would think that's about what we could expect for a "rental" trade of O'Day. Plus we hope to still be contending at midseason next year, and if so there is no way we move him. The idea would be to trade him now so as to get some salary relief to help keep JJ/Cruz/Nick and hopefully get some value in return.

[Roll Tide]

4M is more than I'm willing to pay for Tommy Hunter.

I think Miller will get at least 3/18. That's more than I'm willing to pay for Andrew Miller.

Bud Norris is absolutely worth the 7.5M I think he'll get next year. But the Orioles don't have deep enough pockets to be paying 7.5M for back of the rotation starters, in my opinion. We're going to have to roll into the year with Tillman, Chen, Jimenez, Gonzo, and KG. Bundy, Wright, Wilson, etc. can serve as depth.

I expect Norris and Lough to be traded in the offseason. Get some cheap bullpen guys maybe. Matusz and Hunter can be non-tendered. I hope to extend Markakis (3/30), Cruz(2/26), and Hardy(4/50). I want both De Aza and Pearce fighting for at bats.

RF Markakis

3B Machado

CF Jones

DH Cruz

1B Davis

C Wieters

LF De Aza/Pearce

SS Hardy

2B Schoop

Flash, Joseph, DeAza/Pearce, some utility guy

That team comes in under 110 by my count.

4/50 for Hardy???? surely you've fallen and hit your head. I'd be interested at 3/30 or 2/24... But I'm not committing to that for the 32 year old Hardy.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I can't help but think that how the season ends could make a big difference on who stays or goes. Will we go down as soon as the ALDS, win the WS, or finish somewhere in-between?

The playoff run could determine if the FO decides to make another run for it next year, retool for another window, or try to do both at once. Lots of decisions to be made, but not yet.

This is what I would like to see. You don't see a ton of GM's do it because it's ballsy and can be tough to sell to the fan base, but it can be done.

[atomic]

Matusz - gone

Wieters - gone

Lough - gone

Why would you keep Wieters as he most likely won't be ready by spring training and it's last season. I see them trying to get Hundley back. Him and Joseph are better than Wieters and Teagarden were. Lough is like the seventh outfielder right now. Behind Jones, Markakis, De Aza, Cruz, Pierce, and Young. No way he comes back. I would suspect his future next year is AAA somewhere.

Matusz never pitches. They had so little faith in him they signed Joe Saunders. That is all you need to know.

[atomic]

4/50 for Hardy???? surely you've fallen and hit your head. I'd be interested at 3/30 or 2/24... But I'm not committing to that for the 32 year old Hardy.

Especially since his last contract wasn't for that much and he has back problems. A 2 year deal would be the best thing for the club.

[atomic]

This will not be a popular idea, but another to consider: O'Day is not getting any cheaper. $4.25 million team option next year. Going by the "buy low, sell high" principle, he could get some legit prospects in return (unlike Matusz and Tommy). $4.25m is still a really good value for what he has given this year, but is he capable of that two years in a row? I would not just let him walk, but pick up his option, then see if we get any offers we can't refuse.

We don't want prospects we are a winning team now. Britton and ODay are the core of the bullpen. They will both be back next year. 4.25 million isn't bad for a guy as dependable as him.

[Aristotelian]

We don't want prospects we are a winning team now. Britton and ODay are the core of the bullpen. They will both be back next year. 4.25 million isn't bad for a guy as dependable as him.

Prospects are always good to have. The reason Tampa has been so successful is they have been willing to trade big pieces even coming off of winning seasons.

One need I would point to is a major lack of SS talent, which has put a lot of pressure on us to resign JJ despite his 32 years. I would not give DOD away, but if we could get a MLB ready SS you have to think about it.

DOD is part of the core of the bullpen, but JJ, Nick, and Nelson are part of the core of our position players. We can't keep all these guys. If O'Day is going to walk in 2016, might as well get something for him now.