Who goes and who stays in 2015

[Frobby]

Giving Machado the opportunity to play SS is worth more to me than whoever we find to play 3B next year. Even if Manny at 3B and Hardy at SS is better than any possible combination of Manny at SS and whatever 3B, it's worth the downgrade to get the best value out of Machado for the future.

I don't get this logic. It seems to me the objective is to maximize the combined value at SS and 3B, not to maximize one player's value. We can debate how to get the best combined value, but I don't think the overall objective should be debatable.

I always find these arguments hard because I don't have a good grip on how good Manny would be at SS. What I do know is, Hardy is extremely good, and underrated defensively by some around here.

[DrOrioles90210]

If you move him, sure, you have a great SS, but you already have a pretty darn good one there already.

Great > pretty good, and how much longer will Hardy be pretty good?

Keep in mind, all the players who played 3rd before Manny, ouch, we have had some pretty bad ones.

This is irrelevant when trying to decide whether to keep Manny at 3B or move him to SS.

The left side combo of Manny & JJ is outstanding and it works.

It's very good now and maybe for 1 or 2 more years. But Manny at SS and [fill in the blank] at 3B for the foreseeable future can be much better, even if there's a slight drop off next year.

[backwardsk]

I figured it would be a good idea to see where that would put us payroll wise with the 25 man roster

Pitchers (37.8 million)

35 Brad Brach Stays (500K)

53 Zach Britton Stays (1 Million)

49 Dylan Bundy Stays (1.25 Million)

16 Wei-Yin Chen Stays (4.75 million)

39 Kevin Gausman Stays (500K)

50 Miguel Gonzalez Stays (2 million) estimated 1st year arbitration

31 Ubaldo Jimenez Stays ((11.3 million)

66 T.J. McFarland Stays (500K)

25 Bud Norris Stays (7 million) This maybe the guy they let go or trade with a high salary.

56 Darren O'Day Stays (4.25 million)

30 Chris Tillman Stays (2.5 million)

58 Ryan Webb Stays (2.75 million

18 Suk-min Yoon Stays (2 million)

# Catchers (9 million)

36 Caleb Joseph Stays (500K)

32 Matt Wieters Stays (8.5 million)

# Infielders (16.75)

19 Chris Davis Stays (12.5 million)

3 Ryan Flaherty Stays has options (500K)

12 Steve Lombardozzi Stays has option (500K)

13 Manny Machado Stays (750K)

28 Steve Pearce Stays (1.5 million)

6 Jonathan Schoop Stays has options (500K)

1 Jemile Weeks * Stays has option (500K)

# Outfielders (13.8 million)

10 Adam Jones Stays (13.3 million)

00 Henry Urrutia Stays (500 K)

These are the guys signed or you would expect to pick up options on with the salaries which puts us at 77.35 million and 24 players

This is a good start, but I believe that you are a little low on Britton, Tillman, and Norris. Plus $2mm needs to be added for Markakis.

[bpilktree]

That should be 79.5 million i forgot Yoon. You have to figure about 10 guys in the 500K to 700K range which puts us around 87 million and needing 6 more players.

[DrOrioles90210]

I don't get this logic. It seems to me the objective is to maximize the combined value at SS and 3B, not to maximize one player's value. We can debate how to get the best combined value, but I don't think the overall objective should be debatable.

I always find these arguments hard because I don't have a good grip on how good Manny would be at SS. What I do know is, Hardy is extremely good, and underrated defensively by some around here.

I agree that you want to maximize the value of the team as opposed to one player. My opinion is that while the optimum left side of the infield NEXT YEAR may be Manny at 3B and Hardy at SS, the long term best left side has Manny at SS and someone else at 3B. If that's the case, then I think it's best to move Manny now and accept the (possible) drop off in overall left side value next year for a better left side value for the years after that.

[bpilktree]

This is a good start, but I believe that you are a little low on Britton, Tillman, and Norris. Plus $2mm needs to be added for Markakis.

I don't think Britton will be much higher he only has this year to fall back on and 1st year arbitration numbers not usually a huge increase. Maybe 1.25 million or so. Tilman is the one that may go higher. If Norris goes any higher he maybe non tendered or traded I don't think they will want to pay the 7 million as it is.

[Reboulet'sStache]

They could always move Schoop over to third and then find someone to play second. If Schoop puts on a few more pounds he might have to move to third anyway.

[Redskins Rick]

Great > pretty good, and how much longer will Hardy be pretty good?

This is irrelevant when trying to decide whether to keep Manny at 3B or move him to SS.

It's very good now and maybe for 1 or 2 more years. But Manny at SS and [fill in the blank] at 3B for the foreseeable future can be much better, even if there's a slight drop off next year.

We can agree to disagree.

[bpilktree]

I think they use Norris to trade and get a younger player under control for either Hardy or Cruz.

[Redskins Rick]

They could always move Schoop over to third and then find someone to play second. If Schoop puts on a few more pounds he might have to move to third anyway.

Haven't been thrilled with Schoop's play at third, yes, SSS, but still.

[wildcard]

I figured it would be a good idea to see where that would put us payroll wise with the 25 man roster

Pitchers (37.8 million)

35 Brad Brach Stays (500K)

53 Zach Britton Stays (1 Million)

49 Dylan Bundy Stays (1.25 Million)

16 Wei-Yin Chen Stays (4.75 million)

39 Kevin Gausman Stays (500K)

50 Miguel Gonzalez Stays (2 million) estimated 1st year arbitration

31 Ubaldo Jimenez Stays ((11.3 million)

66 T.J. McFarland Stays (500K)

25 Bud Norris Stays (7 million) This maybe the guy they let go or trade with a high salary.

56 Darren O'Day Stays (4.25 million)

30 Chris Tillman Stays (2.5 million)

58 Ryan Webb Stays (2.75 million

18 Suk-min Yoon Stays (2 million)

# Catchers (9 million)

36 Caleb Joseph Stays (500K)

32 Matt Wieters Stays (8.5 million)

# Infielders (16.75)

19 Chris Davis Stays (12.5 million)

3 Ryan Flaherty Stays has options (500K)

12 Steve Lombardozzi Stays has option (500K)

13 Manny Machado Stays (750K)

28 Steve Pearce Stays (1.5 million)

6 Jonathan Schoop Stays has options (500K)

1 Jemile Weeks * Stays has option (500K)

# Outfielders (13.8 million)

10 Adam Jones Stays (13.3 million)

00 Henry Urrutia Stays (500 K)

These are the guys signed or you would expect to pick up options on with the salaries which puts us at 77.35 million and 24 players

Most of your arbitration guys look a million or 2 low to me. If Pearce keeps hitting I have him at 3M.

I have Markakis and Hardy re-signing which adds 20M+.

Manny is going to make a ton of money over his career but it will not happen yet. 550-600k maybe.

[backwardsk]

I don't think Britton will be much higher he only has this year to fall back on and 1st year arbitration numbers not usually a huge increase. Maybe 1.25 million or so. Tilman is the one that may go higher. If Norris goes any higher he maybe non tendered or traded I don't think they will want to pay the 7 million as it is.

Frobby had a good post in another thread that showed good comparisons for Britton and what they got in arbitration. I believe it looked like 2-2.3mm. Again, not a huge difference, but they add up. They'll want to think about extending Tillman or his number in 2016 and 2017 may be too high. It's very possible that a starter moves, but I would think that Tillman would get you more in a trade than Norris. So I could see them keeping Bud if they lose a starter. I'd hate to non-tender him and get nothing for him.

[wildcard]

Frobby had a good post in another thread that showed good comparisons for Britton and what they got in arbitration. I believe it looked like 2-2.3mm. Again, not a huge difference, but they add up. They'll want to think about extending Tillman or his number in 2016 and 2017 may be too high. It's very possible that a starter moves, but I would think that Tillman would get you more in a trade than Norris. So I could see them keeping Bud if they lose a starter. I'd hate to non-tender him and get nothing for him.

Norris will not get non-tendered. He has trade value even at 8M in salary. I think the O's keep him though.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Haven't been thrilled with Schoop's play at third, yes, SSS, but still.

Yeah, they just threw him into the fire though. With a full spring training under his belt, he should be better. We know his arm will play at third. It's almost a waste to have that cannon at second.

[Frobby]

I agree that you want to maximize the value of the team as opposed to one player. My opinion is that while the optimum left side of the infield NEXT YEAR may be Manny at 3B and Hardy at SS, the long term best left side has Manny at SS and someone else at 3B. If that's the case, then I think it's best to move Manny now and accept the (possible) drop off in overall left side value next year for a better left side value for the years after that.

I am more sanguine than most about Hardy's ability to retain most of his value, especially defensively, for 3-4 more years. A while back I took a look at several very good shortstops and how they have retained their value at ages 32-35 and it was better than is commonly thought, IMO.

Then there is this hypothetical issue of who is going to play 3B. I need someone to tell me where this 3B is coming from, how old he is, how good he is, how we are getting him and what we're going to pay him. Before the season, I might have thought we'd go with Flaherty at 2B and Schoop at 3B in the future. That seems like a pretty weak plan now. There's nobody else in our system at 3B who's any good. There's not much in the FA market. We don't have a big surplus of assets from which to trade for some young 3B prospect. So I need more than just vague assertions about who will play 3B.

PS, here is a quote from an earlier post of mine, before the season, regarding whether Hardy will retain his value:

Here are a couple of really good studies of how infield range and efficiency declines with age:

Camden Depot: http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2010...urves.html?m=1

Tom Tango: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-aging-curves/

Both studies show that range and/or efficiency declines pretty significantly between peak (age 27-28) and 32. In the Camden Depot study, SS defense declined about 1.4 wins in that period, and there wasn't enough data to reach conclusions about SS over age 32. In Tango's study, the rate of drop in range/efficiency actually slowed significantly between ages 32-34, dropping only about 7 plays (probably about half a win) during that three year stretch.

I have done some anectdotal looking at a number of shortstops who had high similarity ratings through age 30 (the two Alex Gonzalez's, Orlando Cabrera) and some elite guys (Ripken, Jeter, Tejada, Vizquel), and overall their defensive value held up very well through age 34.

My bottom line is that I don't expect Hardy to be as good at ages 32-34 (2015-17) as he was at ages 28-30 (the three years we've had him so far). But Hardy has been elite for those three years, and I think he's got 2-3 more years of being significantly above average and then he'll be average for a bit. He's been worth 11.2 rWAR (6.1 dWAR), 10.3 fWAR (27.2 UZR) in those three years. Put him down for 6-9 WAR from 2015-17 and pay him accordingly.