Who goes and who stays in 2015

[Redskins Rick]

Yeah' date=' they just threw him into the fire though. With a full spring training under his belt, he should be better. We know his arm will play at third. It's almost a waste to have that cannon at second.[/quote']

Sorry, but he played 24 games at third in the minors, so I dont call it throwing into the fire. He also has 224 minor league games at SS under his belt, and the Orioles have said, Flash is the only option this team has for backing up JJ at SS.

Buck has said before that Schoop's glove makes him best suited for 2nd, so you can read that many ways.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Is 24 games in the minors a lot?

[Reboulet'sStache]

It's also not about his glove. If Schoop eventually moves from 2B, it will be because of range. He's a big boy now, and still really young. I can't imagine he isn't going to put on more size.

[Redskins Rick]

Is 24 games in the minors a lot?

Not a ton, but I was referring to his play at 3rd, during ST.

[DrOrioles90210]

I am more sanguine than most about Hardy's ability to retain most of his value, especially defensively, for 3-4 more years. A while back I took a look at several very good shortstops and how they have retained their value at ages 32-35 and it was better than is commonly thought, IMO.

Then there is this hypothetical issue of who is going to play 3B. I need someone to tell me where this 3B is coming from, how old he is, how good he is, how we are getting him and what we're going to pay him. Before the season, I might have thought we'd go with Flaherty at 2B and Schoop at 3B in the future. That seems like a pretty weak plan now. There's nobody else in our system at 3B who's any good. There's not much in the FA market. We don't have a big surplus of assets from which to trade for some young 3B prospect. So I need more than just vague assertions about who will play 3B.

PS, here is a quote from an earlier post of mine, before the season, regarding whether Hardy will retain his value:

And honestly, as a fan, I think Machado has a chance to be special, and even more so at SS. I would like to see him given that opportunity. What if Ripken was never moved off 3B? (not a comparison, just what I think is a similar situation)

[bpilktree]

Frobby had a good post in another thread that showed good comparisons for Britton and what they got in arbitration. I believe it looked like 2-2.3mm. Again, not a huge difference, but they add up. They'll want to think about extending Tillman or his number in 2016 and 2017 may be too high. It's very possible that a starter moves, but I would think that Tillman would get you more in a trade than Norris. So I could see them keeping Bud if they lose a starter. I'd hate to non-tender him and get nothing for him.

I think they try and make Tilman a long term deal if he pitches pretty well in the second half. I would offer the contract that San Fran gave Madison Bumgarner as a good comp. Madison had one more year before arbitration yet then gave him 5/35 million. I would offer Tilman 5/40 million. 3/7/8/10/12 deal.

[bpilktree]

Frobby had a good post in another thread that showed good comparisons for Britton and what they got in arbitration. I believe it looked like 2-2.3mm. Again, not a huge difference, but they add up. They'll want to think about extending Tillman or his number in 2016 and 2017 may be too high. It's very possible that a starter moves, but I would think that Tillman would get you more in a trade than Norris. So I could see them keeping Bud if they lose a starter. I'd hate to non-tender him and get nothing for him.

Tyler Clippard in his first year of arbitration got 1.6 million from the Nats and Drew Storen got 2.5 million after recording 43 saves. Britton though great this year does not have the same track record those guys did though. He will be helped by the more saves but I can't see him getting to 2 million.

[glenn__davis]

And honestly, as a fan, I think Machado has a chance to be special, and even more so at SS. I would like to see him given that opportunity. What if Ripken was never moved off 3B? (not a comparison, just what I think is a similar situation)

But as you say, you think Manny can be a special SS.

We know that he is a special 3B, and we know that Hardy is an elite defender at SS as well.

I certainly understand the argument you're making about thinking long term, but there are times when looking long term in baseball is a bit of a fool's errand, only because so much can change in a few years.

The point is that it's just not as easy as saying move Manny to SS. It may very well work out, but there is a risk there that needs to be considered. It is very possible that Manny is merely an average SS, and certainly whoever plays 3B won't be as good as he is, so now you've downgraded 2 positions.

[luismatos4prez]

There is almost no chance Bud Norris is an Oriole next year. He's going to be worth $8M. The Orioles will not give him that. I guarantee it.

Tillman, Chen, Gausman, Bundy, and Gonzo are all much cheaper. And Ubaldo isn't going anywhere.

[backwardsk]

There is almost no chance Bud Norris is an Oriole next year. He's going to be worth $8M. The Orioles will not give him that. I guarantee it.

Tillman, Chen, Gausman, Bundy, and Gonzo are all much cheaper. And Ubaldo isn't going anywhere.

But they could probably get more for moving Tillman, so that is something to consider. I know $8mm seems a lot for a pitcher, but look at what guys like Hughes and Nolasco got on the open market.

I mentioned this before, Britton could be a very attractive trade piece. That would open up the closer role which Norris could end up in if they keep the other six starters.

Also any of the starters could get hurt between now and then.

[DrOrioles90210]

But as you say, you think Manny can be a special SS.

We know that he is a special 3B, and we know that Hardy is an elite defender at SS as well.

I certainly understand the argument you're making about thinking long term, but there are times when looking long term in baseball is a bit of a fool's errand, only because so much can change in a few years.

The point is that it's just not as easy as saying move Manny to SS. It may very well work out, but there is a risk there that needs to be considered. It is very possible that Manny is merely an average SS, and certainly whoever plays 3B won't be as good as he is, so now you've downgraded 2 positions.

What's the actual downside? We find out Manny can't handle SS and you move him back to 3B. Next year the O's will likely have holes to fill at 2B, 1B, LF, RF, DH and a shaky at best rotation. It's not like 2015 is the year where multiple stars are leaving after the season and our window is closed (unless Davis bounces back, only Wieters leaving hurts). The upside is huge. Machado played 2 games at 3B before coming up to the majors in 2012 and then having one of the best seasons at 3B ever. You see that as a reason to keep him there. I see that as an example of how special he is defensively and that he should be able to handle SS if not exceed there.

[backwardsk]

Tyler Clippard in his first year of arbitration got 1.6 million from the Nats and Drew Storen got 2.5 million after recording 43 saves. Britton though great this year does not have the same track record those guys did though. He will be helped by the more saves but I can't see him getting to 2 million.

Here is the thread I mentioned earlier.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/142149-Zack-Britton-turning-in-to-quite-the-closer/page2

He did reference both Clippard and Storen.

[Redskins Rick]

There is almost no chance Bud Norris is an Oriole next year. He's going to be worth $8M. The Orioles will not give him that. I guarantee it.

Tillman, Chen, Gausman, Bundy, and Gonzo are all much cheaper. And Ubaldo isn't going anywhere.

8MM is cheap for starting pitching.

I would be careful about claiming no chance he will be here.

Remember when DD traded for him, it was because they liked him enough to give up decent mid-level prospects, because he was a veteran pitcher and yet under 30 and they envision being around until the cavalry of young arms arrive for good and that is probably 2016.

[glenn__davis]

What's the actual downside? We find out Manny can't handle SS and you move him back to 3B. Next year the O's will likely have holes to fill at 2B, 1B, LF, RF, DH and a shaky at best rotation. It's not like 2015 is the year where multiple stars are leaving after the season and our window is closed (unless Davis bounces back, only Wieters leaving hurts). The upside is huge. Machado played 2 games at 3B before coming up to the majors in 2012 and then having one of the best seasons at 3B ever. You see that as a reason to keep him there. I see that as an example of how special he is defensively and that he should be able to handle SS if not exceed there.

The downside? We lose a very good player in JJ Hardy and spend the next 3-4 years with the Deivi Cruz's of the world shuttling through SS again if Manny can't handle it. And even assuming Manny can handle it, we now don't have a 3B.

We have no one in the system that can come up and play either 3B or SS. Flaherty can probably handle 3B defensively but obviously his bat isn't there.

Left side infield defense is the single biggest strength of this team, and you are almost certainly downgrading that strength by losing Hardy, even IF Manny can be as good defensively as Hardy. And I think that's a big if. Hardy does so many things well that aren't picked up by box scores or even advanced metrics. Catching short hops, making tags, positioning - can Manny do all of that? Maybe he can, I don't know. It's a risk - that is the point.

[PaulFolk]

Yoon is under contract but I believe they can get out of it after this season.

How so? I haven't heard of any provisions in Yoon's contract that would allow the O's to void it.