Was ERod too much for Andrew Miller

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

The DD haters will keep harping about this trade and the impact to the long term health of the Orioles.

I would make this trade every single time, given the circumstances they found themselves in.

You don’t have to be a DD hater to dislike this trade.    You just have to care about long term gain more than short term gain.    Miller was worth 0.9 rWAR in his two months with the club; EdRod has been worth 4.7 rWAR to the Red Sox so far, and is under team control for four more seasons.     Given the shortage of pitching in our organization, I’d rather have 6+ years of a decent, cheap starting pitcher than 2 months of a lights-out reliever, even knowing that we acquired him to augment the team with the best post-season chance we’ve had in the last 20 years.   Reasonable minds can differ here.  

[Redskins Rick]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You don’t have to be a DD hater to dislike this trade.    You just have to care about long term gain more than short term gain.    Miller was worth 0.9 rWAR in his two months with the club; EdRod has been worth 4.7 rWAR to the Red Sox so far, and is under team control for four more seasons.     Given the shortage of pitching in our organization, I’d rather have 6+ years of a decent, cheap starting pitcher than 2 months of a lights-out reliever, even knowing that we acquired him to augment the team with the best post-season chance we’ve had in the last 20 years.   Reasonable minds can differ here.  

My apologies and you are correct.

However, how does a 19-20 pitcher earn a 4.7 rWAR?

This team hasnt won the big trophy since 1983, they were darn close that year, which is why I would have.

Can you image the good tigers team with a lights out arm in the pen?

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

My apologies and you are correct.

However, how does a 19-20 pitcher earn a 4.7 rWAR?

This team hasnt won the big trophy since 1983, they were darn close that year, which is why I would have.

Can you image the good tigers team with a lights out arm in the pen?

I will assume that if the Tigers had Miller in 2014 instead of us, we would have lost that series.    We don’t actually know it, but I’ll accept it as true for current purposes.    I still wouldn’t trade winning that series for the long-term benefits of having EdRod.   

By the way, it seems to me fair to assume that if the O’s had EdRod in 2016, they would have won at least one more game and therefore, at a minimum, would have played the wild card game at home instead of on the road.    Maybe we win that game and go to an ALDS that we missed last year.   And we probably wouldn’t have traded for Wade Miley, either.

[POR]

3 hours ago, esmd said:

It was a good move to acquire him, the dumb part was letting him leave.  Should've paid him.  I don't buy the "I want to be the closer" argument.  Money talks.

You can debate whether it was a good move to acquire Miller.  However, clearly they should have made a bigger effort to sign Miller.  Miller's contract is only slightly more than the contract the Orioles signed Darren O'Day to the following year.  

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, POR said:

You can debate whether it was a good move to acquire Miller.  However, clearly they should have made a bigger effort to sign Miller.  Miller's contract is only slightly more than the contract the Orioles signed Darren O'Day to the following year.  

I wasn't in favor of keeping Miller but if you had told me it would be Miller or O'Day I would have picked Miller in a heartbeat.

 

[eddie83]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

You don’t have to be a DD hater to dislike this trade.    You just have to care about long term gain more than short term gain.    Miller was worth 0.9 rWAR in his two months with the club; EdRod has been worth 4.7 rWAR to the Red Sox so far, and is under team control for four more seasons.     Given the shortage of pitching in our organization, I’d rather have 6+ years of a decent, cheap starting pitcher than 2 months of a lights-out reliever, even knowing that we acquired him to augment the team with the best post-season chance we’ve had in the last 20 years.   Reasonable minds can differ here.  

Watching the Astros pen just cements even more that I liked the trade. I know the Orioles already had a deep pen but Miller was a difference maker.  

[ArtVanDelay]

5 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

However, how does a 19-20 pitcher earn a 4.7 rWAR?

Because W-L is a terrible stat for pitchers. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Watching the Astros pen just cements even more that I liked the trade. I know the Orioles already had a deep pen but Miller was a difference maker.  

If you are serious about going all in to win a world series, then getting Miller was the right move.  And the 2014 Orioles had a legit shot at the world series.  You have to strike while the iron is hot.  

[MDtransplant757]

If Miller stays here and/or the O's win the WS in 2014, this looks way better

[MDtransplant757]

Gausman in the same time frame as Ed Rod has had 8 WAR, BTW. 

 

[Redskins Rick]

11 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Because W-L is a terrible stat for pitchers. 

Regardless, he hasn't been that good of a pitcher. whats has been his WAR for that time frame?

[Redskins Rick]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

I will assume that if the Tigers had Miller in 2014 instead of us, we would have lost that series.    We don’t actually know it, but I’ll accept it as true for current purposes.    I still wouldn’t trade winning that series for the long-term benefits of having EdRod.   

By the way, it seems to me fair to assume that if the O’s had EdRod in 2016, they would have won at least one more game and therefore, at a minimum, would have played the wild card game at home instead of on the road.    Maybe we win that game and go to an ALDS that we missed last year.   And we probably wouldn’t have traded for Wade Miley, either.

We beat the Tigers, because we could outlast their starters and smash the guys in their pen.

So maybe we had keep EdRod things would have been different, who knows?

But, also keep in mind, since we are dealing with whatifs? What about those 3 arms in the minors that was ahead of EdRod on the food chain? Wright, etc.

If only one of those had developed as expected, then EdRod wouldn't have missed as much?

At the end of the day, the trade was made, and it didnt work, darn it.

I think by this time, we are both set in our opinion, neither of us are wrong or right.

[bobmc]

6 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If you are serious about going all in to win a world series, then getting Miller was the right move.  And the 2014 Orioles had a legit shot at the world series.  You have to strike while the iron is hot.  

Well put, but let's not stop harping about the purported detriments of that deal until after ERod is enshrined.....

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

We beat the Tigers, because we could outlast their starters and smash the guys in their pen.

So maybe we had keep EdRod things would have been different, who knows?

But, also keep in mind, since we are dealing with whatifs? What about those 3 arms in the minors that was ahead of EdRod on the food chain? Wright, etc.

If only one of those had developed as expected, then EdRod wouldn't have missed as much?

At the end of the day, the trade was made, and it didnt work, darn it.

I think by this time, we are both set in our opinion, neither of us are wrong or right.

I don’t know what you mean by “ahead of EdRod on the food chain.”    EdRod was a top 100 prospect going into 2014 and so far as I recall was ranked above Wright on every reputable list.    I’m not sure what other pitchers you are referring to, unless you mean Bundy or Harvey.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Frobby said:

I don’t know what you mean by “ahead of EdRod on the food chain.”    EdRod was a top 100 prospect going into 2014 and so far as I recall was ranked above Wright on every reputable list.    I’m not sure what other pitchers you are referring to, unless you mean Bundy or Harvey.

i thought there were pitchers at AA and AAA performing better and thought to have a better slot at the parent club, of course, wasnt one of those we traded to the Brewers later on?