The Countdown to 90 wins

[bpilktree]

Let's look at the WAR for each team by the starters at this point.

Yankees

Mccann 1.2

Tex 1.5

Drew 0.1

Jeter 0.6

Headley 2.2

Gardner 4.0

Elsbuy 3.3

Prado 2.1

Beltran 0.2

Total 15.2

Orioles

Joseph 1.9

Pearce 4.6

Schoop 1.2

Hardy 3.0

Davis 1.5

Cruz 3.2

Jones 4.0

Markakis 1.5

Young 0.7

Total 21.6

[El Gordo]

Don't kid yourself. The Yankees are a much better team now than they where the first half. Their IF defense is much improved with Drew, Prado, and Teixeira playing full time instead of the likes of Roberts, Johnson, Solarte and Cervelli at 1B. They now have a rotation of Kuroda, Peneda, McCarthy, and Green, soon to be joined by Tanaka. They are playing better baseball at the moment, and we are barely treading water. We need to step it up if we want to hold them off. If our lead has dwindled to 2-3 G by the time we face them all bets are off.

[bpilktree]

Don't kid yourself. The Yankees are a much better team now than they where the first half. Their IF defense is much improved with Drew, Prado, and Teixeira playing full time instead of the likes of Roberts, Johnson, Solarte and Cervelli at 1B. They now have a rotation of Kuroda, Peneda, McCarthy, and Green, soon to be joined by Tanaka. They are playing better baseball at the moment, and we are barely treading water. We need to step it up if we want to hold them off. If our lead has dwindled to 2-3 G by the time we face them all bets are off.

You keep saying that but the facts show we have increased our lead this month. So basically you have the entire theory based on a three game seires against the Cubs. The entire month shows us playing well. You mentioned the Nats as playing well just the other day. I guess they are playing worse then every team in baseball now since they just got swept by the Phils based on your logic. One series makes a season right.

[Jonesy10]

The Yankees beat David Price like he has probably never been beaten before. 12 hits in 2 innings! The '27 Yankees would have been jealous of that kind of violence. The Yankees are very capable of playing 21-10 ball, and if they win 3 of 4 from us in Camden Yards, watch out.

The Yankees haven't been 8 games over .500 for a single day this season. I find it hard to believe they will go 11 games over .500 in the next month. They simply aren't good enough.

[JR Oriole]

Let's look at the WAR for each team by the starters at this point.

Yankees

Mccann 1.2

Tex 1.5

Drew 0.1

Jeter 0.6

Headley 2.2

Gardner 4.0

Elsbuy 3.3

Prado 2.1

Beltran 0.2

Total 15.2

Orioles

Joseph 1.9

Pearce 4.6

Schoop 1.2

Hardy 3.0

Davis 1.5

Cruz 3.2

Jones 4.0

Markakis 1.5

Young 0.7

Total 21.6

In today's game, the Tigers had a 1-0 lead on NY in the top of the 3rd with 2 outs, when some unknown named Wheeler got an infield single. A throwing error by Detroit put him on 2nd, and Ellsbury promptly singled him home. That to me is the equivalent of giving up 6 yards on a 3rd and 5 in football, and it is demoralizing as hell to have that happen. This is the sort of stuff the Yankees do better than everyone except maybe the Cardinals.....in key situations, they seem to come through and it kills the other team. Ellsbury has a WAR a little above 3, but the dude has big time experience and the Yankees are full of guys like this. The only way to avoid these situations is you have to blow them out, and unfortunately none of their pitchers are allowing that to happen anymore.

[El Gordo]

You keep saying that but the facts show we have increased our lead this month. So basically you have the entire theory based on a three game seires against the Cubs. The entire month shows us playing well. You mentioned the Nats as playing well just the other day. I guess they are playing worse then every team in baseball now since they just got swept by the Phils based on your logic. One series makes a season right.

I'm looking at how both teams have played the past 10 G. It's easy to kid your self playing fun with numbers.

[Aristotelian]

I'm looking at how both teams have played the past 10 G. It's easy to kid your self playing fun with numbers.

6-4 vs 7-3. One game difference. At that rate they would still be 2-3 games out at the end of the season. I agree, you can't stick a fork in them yet but my fork is ready. They would have to play absolutely perfect baseball over the last 30 games. A couple game losing streak and they truly will be toast.

[bpilktree]

I'm looking at how both teams have played the past 10 G. It's easy to kid your self playing fun with numbers.

They have been playing about the same one game better and they had to score in the 9th and 10th in two of the games to the White Sox to win. They are not going to see a bullpen that bad when it counts.

[JR Oriole]

They have been playing about the same one game better and they had to score in the 9th and 10th in two of the games to the White Sox to win. They are not going to see a bullpen that bad when it counts.

The problem is that it counts now.

[bpilktree]

The lineup for the Yanks had two guys hitting over .270 in it and 4 guys hitting under .245. They may get hot but if you look at how the players in their lineup are playing it is going to be very difficult.

[El Gordo]

The next 13 games are crucial. We have to play better to keep them from cutting down the lead to 4 games or less by the time we play them Sept. 12.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Let's look at the WAR for each team by the starters at this point.

Yankees

Mccann 1.2

Tex 1.5

Drew 0.1

Jeter 0.6

Headley 2.2

Gardner 4.0

Elsbuy 3.3

Prado 2.1

Beltran 0.2

Total 15.2

Orioles

Joseph 1.9

Pearce 4.6

Schoop 1.2

Hardy 3.0

Davis 1.5

Cruz 3.2

Jones 4.0

Markakis 1.5

Young 0.7

Total 21.6

So we have won 21 more games than a team of replacements would have. Maybe, but not if Keanu Reeves was a part of the replacements.

[SilentJames]

The Yankees need to play .700 ball from here on out to win 90.

The Orioles need to play .500 ball.

Which do you think is more likely?

Come on.

[Guest]

4 Rays 2-2 3-1

4 Twins 2-2

3 Reds 2-1

3 @Rays 1-2

3 @ Bos 2-1

4 NYY 2-2

3 Tor 2-1

3 Bos 2-1

4 @NYY 2-2

3 @ Tor 2-1

Orioles finish 92-70.

Plus 1 had them going 2-2 went 3-1.

[SilentJames]

More evidence that the Yankees are unlikely to play 700 ball over their last 30: You know what their WP was over their last 30?

.500

15-15

They needed to go on this little run to get to .500.

And the only reason anyone is even thinking about this is because the Yankees swept the White Sox, which they needed two walk-offs to do.

The Orioles just won.

They now need to only go 14-16 the rest of the way.

The Orioles could play .460 ball the rest of the way and still get to 90 wins thereby forcing the Yankees to play nearly flawless ball.

In the 8 games remaining with the Yankees the Orioles could go 2-6, in theory. That means the Orioles would need to go 12-10 in their non yankee games and the Yankees would need to go 15-7.

If the Orioles and Yankees split those games: 10-12 for the Birds, 16-5 NYY.

Of course the Orioles could go continue to play at the pace they are on now: A 93 win pace, if that pace holds true the rest of the season that means the O's will go 17-13 - meaning the Yankees are allowed to lose just six (SIX) more games between now and the end of the season.