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Is Markakis Greatest Value to us Sentimental?


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If he was playing for Cleveland or Milwaukee' date=' would you be looking to sign him? What would your offer be? Do you think Dan has any sentimental ties to Nick? Will he have to listen to Angelos?[/quote']

If he was on another team, we'd be emphasizing his OBP (.342) and comparing it to our abysmal .311. Of course, without him it would be worse than .311.

I'd be offering him something close to his WAR value (basically 2.0 or slightly above for the past few years). So 10 or 11M annually roughly.

Does Dan have any sentimental ties to Nick? Definitely not. Dan is all business.

Of course he has to listen to ownership who is likely more sentimental........but I think the deal will get done for close to what I have listed here.

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I think Buck is far more appreciative of Nick than Dan is. I remember the first winter he was here, Dan always mentioned Jones, Hardy and Wieters as the core of the team and never mentioned Nick. And when you look solely at the stats, it's a reasonable position. Buck sees how steady and tenacious Nick is and feels that adds value beyond the stat sheet. Those of us who feel sentiment towards Nick feel that way too. Those who are more analytic-oriented feel that stuff is irrelevant or, at least, overvalued. It's an age-old battle.

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The thing I find hard to fathom is how he can bat lead off for a fairly decent offensive team, log 710 PA's have a .341 OBP and yet only score 81 runs. Is he that slow? Is he that hard to move around the bases.

I think the O's need to upgrade RF & LF, but they can't let the OBP drop any lower than it already is.

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If he was playing for Cleveland or Milwaukee' date=' would you be looking to sign him? What would your offer be? Do you think Dan has any sentimental ties to Nick? Will he have to listen to Angelos?[/quote']

JMO but I doubt that Angelos is telling DD who to sign after DD gave him a 99 win season and a Division championship.

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If he was on another team, we'd be emphasizing his OBP (.342) and comparing it to our abysmal .311. Of course, without him it would be worse than .311.

I'd be offering him something close to his WAR value (basically 2.0 or slightly above for the past few years). So 10 or 11M annually roughly.

Does Dan have any sentimental ties to Nick? Definitely not. Dan is all business.

Of course he has to listen to ownership who is likely more sentimental........but I think the deal will get done for close to what I have listed here.

Nick has been a 2+ WAR player once in the last 4 seasons by Fangraphs, and twice in the last 4 seasons by BR. Why pay market value for a ~2 win player anyway when we already have one for around league minimum?

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The thing I find hard to fathom is how he can bat lead off for a fairly decent offensive team, log 710 PA's have a .341 OBP and yet only score 81 runs. Is he that slow? Is he that hard to move around the bases.

I think the O's need to upgrade RF & LF, but they can't let the OBP drop any lower than it already is.

I've posted this before, but Nick was unbelievably conservative in 2014 in taking an extra base (two bases on a single, three on a double) when someone got a hit while he was on base. He only took an extra base 17% of the time, which is less than half his career rate (he has never been below the low 30's in any other year). I'm not sure if that was a function of being slow, or whether he was under instructions not to kill rallies by trying to take an extra base and risking getting thrown out with the big boppers coming up. I did not feel he looked particularly slow in RF compared to recent previous seasons, so I expect it was some kind of intentional strategy.

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Nick has been a 2+ WAR player once in the last 4 seasons by Fangraphs, and twice in the last 4 seasons by BR. Why pay market value for a ~2 win player anyway when we already have one for around league minimum?

Well to answer #1: Because Nick is a FA. And that is how free agency works. You have to pay market value, or sometimes more. And that's what Nick is worth.

For #2, I guess you are referring to David Lough? I doubt Duquette has enough confidence to send Lough out there in RF every day. For one thing, Lough can't hit lefties at all. Nick can hit both LHP and RHP, and that's valuable. Lough's value is contingent on him being used in the way that Buck used him.

Again, OBP has been a big weakness of this team for a long time, and Nick had one of the highest for us in 2014. Starting Lough would not help there.

Nick > Lough

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Well to answer #1: Because Nick is a FA. And that is how free agency works. You have to pay market value, or sometimes more. And that's what Nick is worth.

For #2, I guess you are referring to David Lough? I doubt Duquette has enough confidence to send Lough out there in RF every day. For one thing, Lough can't hit lefties at all. Nick can hit both LHP and RHP, and that's valuable. Lough's value is contingent on him being used in the way that Buck used him.

Again, OBP has been a big weakness of this team for a long time, and Nick had one of the highest for us in 2014. Starting Lough would not help there.

Nick > Lough

Even if this part is true, which I'm not so sure of... the difference isn't worth 30 million dollars.

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Well to answer #1: Because Nick is a FA. And that is how free agency works. You have to pay market value, or sometimes more. And that's what Nick is worth.

For #2, I guess you are referring to David Lough? I doubt Duquette has enough confidence to send Lough out there in RF every day. For one thing, Lough can't hit lefties at all. Nick can hit both LHP and RHP, and that's valuable. Lough's value is contingent on him being used in the way that Buck used him.

Again, OBP has been a big weakness of this team for a long time, and Nick had one of the highest for us in 2014. Starting Lough would not help there.

Nick > Lough

Even if this part is true, which I'm not so sure of... the difference isn't worth 30 million dollars.

I agree with Aglets' view of the two players. Your point about the $30 mm is fair enough. How would you spend the money? I'd argue that Lough is in a role that allows him to have a lot of value, and by making him an everyday player his value will not be as high as Nick's, but then you have a spot he has vacated so how to you construct your team to add some value there?

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If Nick were playing for another team I'd advocate a contract based on his current value and his likely decline due to aging. Something like 2, 1.5 and 1 wins over three years for a total of (4.5 x 6) or $27M. But I'd also be very tempted to not call him a 2-win player with a 0-win season only year in the past. Weighting his last four seasons 4, 3, 2, 1 his baseline is 1.3 wins/year.

If I was in a pessimistic mood I might say his three years should be paid expecting 1.3, 0.8, and 0.3 wins, for a total of 2.4, and a total value of about 3/15, which would equate to just not offering him a contract.

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Team needs consist of a high OBP lefty with solid defense and some speed around the bases.

Markakis is definitely a lefty last time I checked.

He has always had an above average OBP. Nothing crazy but he is solid in that department.

Solid defense has become debatable. I think it's a wash, he isn't Lorenzo Cain but he isn't Nelson Cruz either. The slower he gets the harder it becomes too watch him try to track down fly balls, I will say that.

That leads me to Nicks lead feet. He is slow and the speed dynamic is sorely missing from the top of this lineup.

Anyways, it's a little bit sentimental but he does fit our needs to a certain extent and if he willing to sign some type of discount then there is value in that. Though, Aoki would be a good fit and Lough could probably hold his own if we were to not expect too much with the bat but the speed and defense are certainly there and that would save a good 10 million plus to use elsewhere.

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