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Justin Smoak Was Non-Tendered By Toronto (And Re-signed)

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stomperspc Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

stomperspc

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I think I'd rather have Smoak than Morse.

First off, he really is a victim of Safeco. His average is .037 points higher away from Safeco. His ISO is .026 points higher. Small sample (only 276 PA's) but the split was even more pronounced last season but that was almost all batting average driven (.100 difference). It would be very surprising if he didn't perform better with a move to Camden Yards for his home games and the more hitter-friendly (relative to the AL West) AL East parks. How much his performance improves is open for debate, of course.

While I am not suggesting that 2013 (1.4 rWAR, 113 OPS+) is his true level of performance and what we can expect going forward, there are plenty of reasons to believe his disappointing 2014 season was largely the product of injuries and (later) inconsistent playing time. He was off to a good start power wise in April and May (.166 ISO, 7 HR's) before going on the DL at the start of June with a quad injury. He came off the DL on July 4th and was optioned to Tacoma because Logan Morrison had a good June playing 1B in Smoak's absence. He was recalled a week later when Michael Saunders landed on the DL and he hit poorly in 5 games before being sent down again to make room for a spot starter. He mashed at AAA and was recalled on September 1st with expanded rosters. He barely played as his 14 PA's for the month would suggest. It is easy to look at his overall numbers and conclude he was demoted because he didn't play well but it seems more complicated than that.

He hits better from the left-side but his .136 ISO versus LHP isn't bad. He is not very good defensively but certainly not worse than Morse. Plus, he would likely get most of his at bats at DH anyway. He also has had better luck staying healthy than Morse. I also like the fact that he should be cheaper than Morse and is significantly younger than him. The Orioles have good success taking players in Smoak's age range who haven't never quite put it altogether and getting good production out of them for a season or two. Smoak feels like he could be the next of those players.

His biggest tool is power and you can't expect to get more out of him than that, but I think his power potential at OPACY would be enough to make him a valuable player assuming he can be had for what most non-tendered players with his track record can be had for.

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21xxxv Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

21xxxv

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I think I'd rather have Smoak than Morse.

First off, he really is a victim of Safeco. His average is .037 points higher away from Safeco. His ISO is .026 points higher. Small sample (only 276 PA's) but the split was even more pronounced last season but that was almost all batting average driven (.100 difference). It would be very surprising if he didn't perform better with a move to Camden Yards for his home games and the more hitter-friendly (relative to the AL West) AL East parks. How much his performance improves is open for debate, of course.

While I am not suggesting that 2013 (1.4 rWAR, 113 OPS+) is his true level of performance and what we can expect going forward, there are plenty of reasons to believe his disappointing 2014 season was largely the product of injuries and (later) inconsistent playing time. He was off to a good start power wise in April and May (.166 ISO, 7 HR's) before going on the DL at the start of June with a quad injury. He came off the DL on July 4th and was optioned to Tacoma because Logan Morrison had a good June playing 1B in Smoak's absence. He was recalled a week later when Michael Saunders landed on the DL and he hit poorly in 5 games before being sent down again to make room for a spot starter. He mashed at AAA and was recalled on September 1st with expanded rosters. He barely played as his 14 PA's for the month would suggest. It is easy to look at his overall numbers and conclude he was demoted because he didn't play well but it seems more complicated than that.

He hits better from the left-side but his .136 ISO versus LHP isn't bad. He is not very good defensively but certainly not worse than Morse. Plus, he would likely get most of his at bats at DH anyway. He also has had better luck staying healthy than Morse. I also like the fact that he should be cheaper than Morse and is significantly younger than him. The Orioles have good success taking players in Smoak's age range who haven't never quite put it altogether and getting good production out of them for a season or two. Smoak feels like he could be the next of those players.

His biggest tool is power and you can't expect to get more out of him than that, but I think his power potential at OPACY would be enough to make him a valuable player assuming he can be had for what most non-tendered players with his track record can be had for.

I for one, am not a Michael Morse fan. Limited defense, many holes in his swing, and I'd rather have Delmon's higher average knowing what his role could be.. The O's however are weak from the left side of the plate, and could be weaker if Markakis goes. I am not saying he should go, but I am not a 4 year 48M advocate for a punch and judy hitter. Melky Cabrera is the best replacement when you look at the whole picture. Contact hitter, Average hitter, doesn't strike out as much, and will fair better playing 81 less games on Toronto's turf. Like many here, Smoak, Saunders and other bats are appealing in Camden Yards, but their OBP are just too risky. We already have Davis, Jones, Schoop, Hardy and Weiters that strikeout far too much. We need Average, OBP and situational improvements To score runs when the HR bats take a night off.

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