Is this a fair deal for the O's AND Cubs?

[Fairfax Bird]

Two pages later and still nobody who feels Murton could be an 850 OPS everyday player has responded to these splits. Interesting.

The splits make their point, I'm not as sure as I was before, but I still feel that Murton could top out at .850 if given every day at-bats over the course of the season. The question is will he ever get 550 ABs in a season to find out?

[skiba7]

However, if your argument doesn't explain the splits I linked in previous posts at some point in your argument, it isn't a very good argument IMO.

I did a couple posts later. Those splits did little to help your case.

As far as the steoirds and ops things go, they are no less valid of arguments than the intagibles that so many speak of. The things I bring up are fact. People are overvaluing Roberts. If I'm wrong, then please tell me what teams are lining up to get him and offering more than the hypothetical Cubs offer.

[Number5]

Orioles fans are seemingly forgetting that they got a multiple time All Star right fielder, formerly face of the Franchise from the Cubs who was tainted with two things 1) steroid user 2) clubhouse problem for the second basemen that Brian Roberts beat out (Hairston).

This brings up a few key issues:

1) All star status has no trade value, only future performance does.

2) Face of the Franchise has no trade value, only future performance does.

3) Tainted by steroids does have a devaluing effect on a trade. In fact it is unbelievable to me that the Astros would trade for Miggy the day before the Mitchell report. Makes me think you got some tainted goods back in return that we just do not know about.

4) Gotta trade guys when their value is high or you get Jerry Hairston in return.

I see, so past positive performance and good rep doesn't matter, but past negative rep (5 years in the past, by the way) does matter? None of your "key issue" are valid. If you aren't interested in Roberts, why are you trying to sell us? Doesn't hold water, Bloop.

[Bloopandablast]

I see, so past positive performance and good rep doesn't matter, but past negative rep (5 years in the past, by the way) does matter? None of your "key issue" are valid. If you aren't interested in Roberts, why are you trying to sell us? Doesn't hold water, Bloop.

Only projectable future performance does.......Holds all the water in the world.

[Number5]

I hope we don't allow too much emotions to get in the way with extensions with Roberts. Don't want us adding unnecessary years or money the way we did to Mora. Don't get me wrong, love Roberts. But think it would be a disservice if we convinced him we would be competitive in less than 2 years.

Mora was as old at the beginning of that extension as Roberts will be at the end of this one. I see no comparison.

[Bloopandablast]

Mora was as old at the beginning of that extension as Roberts will be at the end of this one. I see no comparison.

Roberts plays with his speed. It is a key element. IF he can maintain it like Ricky H, then fine I agree.

[Number5]

Only projectable future performance does.......Holds all the water in the world.

And you base future performance projections on what? Go ahead, say it. We know.

[Insomniac]

Payton is not mediocre, he is awful. Marquis will probably also be worse than mediocre in the AL, but I think he's a lot closer to mediocre than Payton is.

Payton's OPS+: 74

Marquis' ERA+: 101

Payton is also 6 years older. Marquis has put up an ERA+ higher than 100 for three of the past four years. Payton's OPS+ had been in the high 80s to low 90s the three years before he came to the Orioles.

I also doubt AM would care if Marquis pitches to an ERA in the high 4s, has a high WHIP, and gives up more than his share of HRs, as long as he starts 30-34 games, pitches at least 200 innings, and wins 10-12 games (and there is no reason to think that isn't exactly what Marquis should do in an O's uniform in 2008).

Based on what AM flipped Trachsel for last year, I think AM is probably confident he can flip Marquis for something similar in July (if need be), notwithstanding his large contract.

[Bloopandablast]

And you base future performance projections on what? Go ahead, say it. We know.

Performance, age, medical status and ah hem enhancement. There I said it.

[skiba7]

Because he has a career 820 OPS when cherry picking playing time. If he was exposed to all right handed pitchers, it is very unlikely his stats would improve. The argument about playing time isn't very persuasive. It sounds like an excuse. It especially isn't persuasive when you look at his minor league splits, which you conveniently chose to ignore. I think he is unlikely to produce much higher than a 750 OPS if he faced all righties w/o cherry picking. I think that is supported by his historical splits. He would likely have to produce over a 1000 OPS against lefties to maintain an 850 OPS overall if he played every day. I just don't see it.

Ugh. So players can't improve from when they're in the minors? By the way, those links you showed me weren't from the minors. Convenient that you switch your attention to something else once you realize those splits did nothing to help your case. First it's "check out these splits, they'll show you're wrong." Then you realize those stats didn't help you and all of a sudden it's "Yeah, well he was cherry picking! Those stats are irrelevant." Make up your mind.

I think he is unlikely to produce much higher than a 750 OPS if he faced all righties w/o cherry picking.

That doesn't even make sense. He played close to a full season in 2006, and had an .809 ops. If you look at the game log, you'll see that his power didn't start developing more until the end of the season, when he hit 9 home runs in the last 2 months. You could see him developing, and then Soriano is signed and he's back on the bench. I'm confident that if he gets consistent playing time, his power will continue to grow and he'll put up the numbers I mentioned.

[skiba7]

The argument about playing time isn't very persuasive. It sounds like an excuse.

Have you seen Murton play on a daily basis? No. You trash me for talking bad about Roberts, but then you say silly things about Murton. How is it an excuse to point out that he continued to improve only when he got consistent playing time? For a player to improve, isn't it necessary for the player to... you know....... play?

[Number5]

I think that most Cub fans and Oriole fans alike see that there is a bad fit between these teams for a trade. Both teams have needs that can be met by the other team but are not really in a position to make the trade the other team wants to make. Holding onto Roberts is not a bad option for the Orioles at all, and exploring other possible options such as Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Colorado is worth looking into as well. The Cubs have DeRosa at 2B now and some of their fans seem positive that the Cubs would continue to bat Soriano lead-off if they were to obtain Roberts. If that is the case, it is hard to see much benefit to the Cubs in making such a trade, especially when considering the cost in talent they would be giving up. How is there a fit for a trade here?

[Roll Tide]

Please show me any evidence at all that Murton will produce an 850 OPS if he played every day. He would likely produce an 850 OPS ONLY if he sat against 50% or so of the league's righthanders based on his history thus far. He'd be an 800 OPS player or so if he played every single day. That is valuable, but not as valuable as the 800ish OPS out of Roberts at 2nd base.

I don't think he is a superstar. However, I think he is better now than Murton and likely to continue to be better over the next several years (when normalizing for position). I think you clearly overvalue Murton based on the quoted sentence above.

Yes, evaluating Roberts based on his career OPS and throwing out the steroids thing shows you're clearly a non-biased outfielder. This is about the 5th time I've seen you use the steroids thing and career OPS in a post to "analyze" his value. I think you've done more to indict yourself with these statements than anything I could do.

I agree with Skiba that Murton could be a pretty good player. Heck in 2006 He hit .297 w/ 809 OPS in 457 AB's. Had 13 HRs that season (which really was his rookie year)

Besides we'd be getting three other players in the 4 for 1. I think his power numbers could easily go up to the low 20's.

[ChaosLex]

Considering there's a lot of O's and Cubs fans that don't like the rumored 4-1 (or 5-2) deal, I'd say that makes it a fair trade.

[Insomniac]

Unless the Os are completely overwhelmed by a trade offer now (which, IMO, would require either Pie or all of their other top prospects to be in the offer from the Cubs), I think the Os should wait until at least July trade deadline to see what other offers are out there.

If nothing else, I would love to have BRob around for a few more months so he can work with Adam Jones on stealing bases. Nobody else on this team is qualified to mentor AJ in that category.