Is this a fair deal for the O's AND Cubs?

[Cokeman]

To extend Roberts your going to have to convince him that this team has a plan o win in the future. If he stays.

Well, I think the plan should be obvious to him by now...don't you? The results are pending, but the plan is there.

[JoeOrsulak]

To extend Roberts your going to have to convince him that this team has a plan o win in the future. If he stays.

I hope we don't allow too much emotions to get in the way with extensions with Roberts. Don't want us adding unnecessary years or money the way we did to Mora. Don't get me wrong, love Roberts. But think it would be a disservice if we convinced him we would be competitive in less than 2 years.

[Lester Freamon]

It's my opinion that Roberts will remain an Oriole unless we get a young SS or 2B with a lot of upside in return.

This is a good point, but I don't think we have to acquire said SS or 2B this season. With all the arms we've stockpiled so far and with the potential of Gallagher and Veal coming over from the Cubs and adding to that, there is no reason we can't still add our future SS or 2B by trading from our strength.

IMO, Gallagher, Murton, Cedeno and Veal is too much to pass up.

[JoeOrsulak]

I think you need to look a little more closely at Cabrera. Specifically, age vs level. He has the chance to be an absolute stud. He was ridiculously rushed by the Indians and still managed to more than hold his own in the majors last year at 21. I'd be shocked if the Indians would trade him straight up for Roberts.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Asdrubal-Cabrera.shtml

Peralta's value is tied up in the fact that he is a SS and he isn't likely to remain one for more than another season or so. He has become much thicker and slower over the last couple years. And his hands were never great at his best. He wouldn't be an ML starter at 3B, 1B, or LF/RF which is where he is likely to end up. Cabrera is a better player today IMHO.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Jhonny-Peralta.shtml

thanks, did check out his stats before. I did like his walk to k ratio. The one thing that jumped out was his lack of power (looked at doubles), also his lack of sb's (only good last year).

I did neglect his age to a point. Just see a major league starter, instead of a star or all-star caliber. Don't get me wrong, don't mind having a major league starter coming over. Just see the same potential in Murton, abeit a RF, but 3 other parts coming in the deal that 'could' grow.

I know CLE would include others, but they don't have that much to give. I assume Adam Miller wouldn't be included.

[ChaosLex]

This is a good point, but I don't think we have to acquire said SS or 2B this season. With all the arms we've stockpiled so far and with the potential of Gallagher and Veal coming over from the Cubs and adding to that, there is no reason we can't still add our future SS or 2B by trading from our strength.

IMO, Gallagher, Murton, Cedeno and Veal is too much to pass up.

Agreed. I have a bad feeling that if we don't make that trade, it's going to come back to bite us in the tail.

[JoeOrsulak]

This is a good point, but I don't think we have to acquire said SS or 2B this season. With all the arms we've stockpiled so far and with the potential of Gallagher and Veal coming over from the Cubs and adding to that, there is no reason we can't still add our future SS or 2B by trading from our strength.

IMO, Gallagher, Murton, Cedeno and Veal is too much to pass up.

Maybe we draft Tim Beckham, SS from Georgia in the draft. He has been compared to Jimmy Rollins. I know HS guy wouldn't be ready for 3 or 4 years, but still. You trade for the best package and deal with positions later.

[skiba7]

I agree that the Cubs and Orioles don't match up well. I also think you drastically overvalue your own players, based on what I've read from you on this board.

Of those four guys, I'd say there is a 50% or so chance that none of them ends up with a career comparable to Brian Roberts. I can't trade my best 2B, who also isn't about to fall off a cliff re: numbers, unless I get back someone who is a good bet to be as good as he is today at some point in the future. I'm not sure any of them are good bets. They are all possible bets, but not good bets.

My review of them -

Veal: 75% chance of getting to the majors; 50% chance of breaking 200 IP in the majors; 25% chance of ever being discussed as a potential all star level player

Gallagher: 80% chance of breaking 200 IP in the majors; 40% chance of accumulating enough service to see his free agency years (assuming no injury); 20% chance of ever being discussed as a potential all star level player

Murton: 75% chance of breaking 2000 at bats in the majors; 60% chance of accumulating enough service to see his free agency years (assuming no injury); 10% chance of ever being discussed as a potential all star level player

Cedeno: 50% chance of breaking 2000 at bats in the majors; 30% chance of accumulating enough service to see his free agency years (assuming no injury); 15% chance of ever being discussed as a potential all star level player

Murton is the only "known" quantity and he projects to be a borderline starter in his best years. He wouldn't break our starting outfield this year IMHO.

I'm not overvaluing my players at all. I think I'm properly valuing Roberts. Gallagher I think will be good, but nothing more than a #3 starter in the NL. Cedeno will either turn a corner, or fade into oblivion. I tend to go with the latter, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him put it all together. Murton is solid. Not a superstar, but if he plays every day I'd expect something along the lines of an .850 ops out of him. Every time he gets regular playing time, he starts to hit. Then they reduce him back to a pinch hitting role and he loses his rythm and starts struggling. Same thing with his power. I'd really like to see him start somewhere and see how he does. Veal is hit or miss, too early to tell. As you can see, I'm not overvauling my players, I just think that a lot of people here are under the impression that Roberts is a superstar. Yes, I know that he's a great leadoff hitter, great clubhouse guy, blah blah. That fact of the matter is that he's 30 year old. .760 career ops, second basemen who recently admitted to using steroids. I don't think the market for him is nearly as big as a lot of you think. Where are the teams lining up to get him? They aren't. That trade would not be fair value.

[davearm]

I concur. The only way I take Marquis ridiculous contract is if the Cubs give up Pie, Cedeno, Fontenot and Gallagher with him. And that isn't going to happen. Paytons contract is not out of order. It is a fair contract, maybe slightly high. Marquis has one of baseball's most laughable contracts. Not as bad as Gibbons, but close. No way I take Marquis unless the Cubs let me empty there system with him.

Name me all of the 4th OFs like Payton making ~$5M.

I'd have no problem naming a bunch of 4th/5th starters like Marquis making ~$8M.

Javier Vasquez

Woody Williams

Jarrod Washburn

Jeff Suppan

Jeff Weaver

Joel Piniero

Hiroki Kuroda

Kris Benson

Jake Westbrook

Paul Byrd

Carlos Silva

Miguel Batista

Randy Wolf

Adam Eaton

Matt Morris

Vicente Padilla

Jose Contreras

Kei Igawa (with posting fee included)

Freddy Garcia

Livan Hernandez

Eric Milton

Russ Ortiz

Odalis Perez

Now you can cherrypick a few names here and say "these guys are better than Marquis" or "that guy only makes $7M", but the point remains that there is a pretty large market of starting pitchers in this talent/price tier.

You'll have a much harder time building a list of players in Jay Payton's talent/price tier.

[davearm]

Veal has walked about 5 guys per nine for three straight ML seasons, meanwhile his K numbers have dropped (though they are still pretty good), and his hits/9 jumped at AA last year. I feel comfortable saying that Veal will never qualify for a ML pension if he doesn't seriously improve his command. Veal is a huge gamble.

Adam Loewen says hi.

[FR500]

Probably not....If they took Payton ans added Colvin instead of Veal I would. I'd first offer Roberts a 5 year $40 million deal.

I'm hoping they do it... offer him a 5 year deal. Once the dust settles this off season and they offer him a respectable deal, I would hope he accepts it and his role as the team's all important leader -- on and off the field. He's much too classey of a player to whine and complain about being on a rebuilding team and wanting to be traded. I think he could accept being an Ernie Banks type player. If you know what I mean. Os need to keep BRob. IMO.

[ChaosLex]

I'm hoping they do it... offer him a 5 year deal. Once the dust settles this off season and they offer him a respectable deal, I would hope he accepts it and his role as the team's all important leader -- on and off the field. He's much too classey of a player to whine and complain about being on a rebuilding team and wanting to be traded. I think he could accept being an Ernie Banks type player. If you know what I mean. Os need to keep BRob. IMO.

Unfortunately, I think it'd take more than a 5/40 to sign BRob to an extension. Especially if someone like Garry matthews got 5/50 just last year.

[davearm]

You know what I find amazing is that the vast majority of Cub fans I know would be thrilled if Cedeno was the Cubs' everyday SS in 2008 (over Theriot), yet most folks here seem to be uninterested in Cedeno, despite their default option being even worse than Theriot.

[clapdiddy]

You know what I find amazing is that the vast majority of Cub fans I know would be thrilled if Cedeno was the Cubs' everyday SS in 2008 (over Theriot), yet most folks here seem to be uninterested in Cedeno, despite their default option being even worse than Theriot.

I'd take him! Sign me up! If we can get Gallagher, Cedeno, Murton, and Veal from the Cubbies, we'd be dumb not to do it.

[davearm]

I'd take him! Sign me up! If we can get Gallagher, Cedeno, Murton, and Veal from the Cubbies, we'd be dumb not to do it.

I'd do that with Patterson in place of Cedeno, and Marshall in place of Gallagher.

If you're taking Veal, I need to get my way with those first two guys.

[bigbird]

Unfortunately, I think it'd take more than a 5/40 to sign BRob to an extension. Especially if someone like Garry matthews got 5/50 just last year.

Let's compare apples to apples. Robinson Cano just got 4 years $30 million from the Yankees.