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How many sure things do we have in our lineup right now?

ChuckS

By ChuckS
in Orioles Talk

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I think you are missing my point. Wieters and Machado are not sure things because of their injury question marks. It doesn't matter what their projected OPS would be over a full season.

Also, Chris Davis needs to OPS at least .750 to be productive with the number of unproductive outs he makes. De Aza can't hit lefties and I don't see how you can call Pearce a sure thing given what an anomaly his 2014 was.

My definition of a sure thing is a player that can be relied on for SOLID production on an EVERYDAY basis based on their statistical history. We have more question marks than answers in my opinion.

Who told you that Chris need to OPS .750 because of his unproductive outs? That's not true. Who made that up?

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I think you are missing my point. Wieters and Machado are not sure things because of their injury question marks. It doesn't matter what their projected OPS would be over a full season.

Also, Chris Davis needs to OPS at least .750 to be productive with the number of unproductive outs he makes. De Aza can't hit lefties and I don't see how you can call Pearce a sure thing given what an anomaly his 2014 was.

My definition of a sure thing is a player that can be relied on for SOLID production on an EVERYDAY basis based on their statistical history. We have more question marks than answers in my opinion.

Every number I put up in my post is as sure a thing as Adam or Hardy. Or anyone else we could get.

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ChuckS Hangout Grand Counsel

ChuckS

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Let me make sure I picked up on your major points:

1) This team sucks

2) This team expects to contend

3) Teams that contend don't suck

Did I miss anything?

I said none of those things. But going into 2015 with our current cast, I would not expect to come close to replicating 2014 unless a lot of things break right. We have a lot of offensive production to make up for and expecting Machado, Wieters, and Davis to fill the void is unrealistic given their injuries and 2014 performance (Davis).

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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.And the good news is, whoever has predicted most correctly, or least correctly, in 50 years from now, it will not make a bit of difference. In case I do not post the rest of the year, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Merry Christmas. To you and all that you care about.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I said none of those things. But going into 2015 with our current cast, I would not expect to come close to replicating 2014 unless a lot of things break right. We have a lot of offensive production to make up for and expecting Machado, Wieters, and Davis to fill the void is unrealistic given their injuries and 2014 performance (Davis).

I posted very realist floors for each of your players you have concerns about.

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mdbdotcom Hangout Grand Counsel

mdbdotcom

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I said none of those things. But going into 2015 with our current cast, I would not expect to come close to replicating 2014 unless a lot of things break right. We have a lot of offensive production to make up for and expecting Machado, Wieters, and Davis to fill the void is unrealistic given their injuries and 2014 performance (Davis).

Then we can't win, because we don't have the ability to replace all the people who would need to be replaced in order to have players you can "count on."

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I said none of those things. But going into 2015 with our current cast, I would not expect to come close to replicating 2014 unless a lot of things break right. We have a lot of offensive production to make up for and expecting Machado, Wieters, and Davis to fill the void is unrealistic given their injuries and 2014 performance (Davis).

What offensive production do we have to make up for? What is missing? We were a top offensive team last year. Cruz was above average. Nick far below. You realize Nick's year was close to being the same as Chris Davis. Very close.

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mdbdotcom Hangout Grand Counsel

mdbdotcom

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What offensive production do we have to make up for? What is missing? We were a top offensive team last year. Cruz was above average. Nick far below.

Cruz partially made up for the loss of Wieters, Machado, and Davis's dropoff, but that's all. That's why we scored fewer runs last season than in 2013. I expect we will score more runs in 2015 than we did in 2014, even though we won't be able to "count on" three core members of the team.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Not contending is a very real possibilty. The FO decided to stick with what they have. Chris Davis has to rebound. Hopefully aderall will allow him to hit fastballs down the middle again.

Not contending? Hardly. No one thinks that. We are verly nearly the same team that was third or fourth best last year. And don't got to 2016 again. Next year. How are we so bad? And don't say Cruz, he's not all that. He's a DH that could be counted on for a .800 OPS.

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ChuckS Hangout Grand Counsel

ChuckS

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Who told you that Chris need to OPS .750 because of his unproductive outs? That's not true. Who made that up?

With Chris's power and ability to draw walks, he could hit .200 and strike out 200 times and still OPS .750. I don't consider that good production, sorry. This is one of the cases were OPS is a flawed statistic.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I think there is way more upside than downside for Davis, Schoop, Machado and Wieters compared to what they contributed last year. So are they "sure things?" Nobody's a sure thing in baseball. Any player could get hurt and miss the entire season. But I think there is way more positive than negative with these players.

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mdbdotcom Hangout Grand Counsel

mdbdotcom

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Not contending is a very real possibilty. The FO decided to stick with what they have. Chris Davis has to rebound. Hopefully aderall will allow him to hit fastballs down the middle again.

A lot has to happen. Baseball is like that every year for every team. That's why they play the games. No team is perfect, and no player is perfect. There are no absolutes, only probabilities.

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