Draft order finalized

[AdamK]

The Orioles will likely not get another competitive balance pick. ...

...

Regardless, the Orioles had the best record last year of the 15 (or 14) teams eligible, so unless they really beat the odds like the 2014 Cardinals, they will not get a competitive balance pick this season.

Also too, because Bob Manfred also too.

[MurphDogg]

Also too, because Bob Manfred also too.

Yeah. The fact that the Cardinals are even eligible really bothers me. It delegitimizes the system for a team that has been in the top 20 percent (top 6) in attendance every season for the last 10 years, to be eligible for a competitive balance pick that is supposed to go to teams in the bottom half every season.

[AdamK]

Yeah. The fact that the Cardinals are even eligible really bothers me. It delegitimizes the system for a team that has been in the top 20 percent (top 6) in attendance every season for the last 10 years, to be eligible for a competitive balance pick that is supposed to go to teams in the bottom half every season.

If there was a benefit that the Orioles were originally looking forward to, its probably best for a while that we assume it is not going to happen now. Better to be pleasantly surprised by screws not being turned than shocked over it happening again and again.

[Stotle]

Yeah. The fact that the Cardinals are even eligible really bothers me. It delegitimizes the system for a team that has been in the top 20 percent (top 6) in attendance every season for the last 10 years, to be eligible for a competitive balance pick that is supposed to go to teams in the bottom half every season.

Why would you be upset that a small market team draws well? If anything, isn't it a testament to St Louis that they can qualify for a comp pick and, despite the disadvantage of playing in a small market, continue to perform at the major league level? St Louis is the type of club (like Baltimore) this system is supposed to help.

[fearthenoodle]

The Orioles will likely not get another competitive balance pick. The eligible teams are the 10 teams with the lowest revenue and the 10 teams with the smallest market. There is overlap among these groups. In 2013 there were 14 teams eligible and 12 of them received picks. The determination of where in the lottery a team picks is odds based, tied to lowest winning percentage from last season. Hence the A's and Rays missed out in 2013 (The O's beat the odds in even getting a pick that year, let alone in the first round, as they had the 13th worst record of the 14 teams, better than the Rays who missed out completely).

In 2014 there were 15 teams eligible for the 12 spots and the Pirates, Rays and Royals all missed out, they had three of the four best records of the competitive balance teams, with the Cardinals beating the odds and getting a pick over those three teams.

Assuming the pool is the same as last season, the following 15 teams would be eligible for 12 picks:

Marlins

Rockies

Cardinals

Brewers

Padres

Indians

Reds

Athletics

Mariners

Twins

Orioles

Diamondbacks

Pirates

Rays

Royals

The Reds were eligible in 2014 but not in 2013, so it could be 14 teams for 12 picks.

Regardless, the Orioles had the best record last year of the 15 (or 14) teams eligible, so unless they really beat the odds like the 2014 Cardinals, they will not get a competitive balance pick this season.

I had forgotten that component, but there are still only 2-3 teams that won't get a pick. We got a pick after 2012, after all.

[MurphDogg]

Why would you be upset that a small market team draws well? If anything, isn't it a testament to St Louis that they can qualify for a comp pick and, despite the disadvantage of playing in a small market, continue to perform at the major league level? St Louis is the type of club (like Baltimore) this system is supposed to help.

Their payroll was $20 million higher than the Orioles every season from 2006-2013. Until the 1950s they were the western AND southernmost team, so their historical fan base is enormous. The St. Louis metropolitan area may be a small market comparable to NY and Boston but they draw from huge swaths of the middle of the country. It isn't that I am unhappy that they draw well, it is simply they are clearly the team that belongs least amongst that list of 15 teams. They have a bigger payroll and higher attendance than every other team on the list and thus they are only a small market team by a quirk of methodology.

[MurphDogg]

I had forgotten that component, but there are still only 2-3 teams that won't get a pick. We got a pick after 2012, after all.

2-3 teams won't get a pick and we have the worst odds of getting a pick. It is more likely than not that we will not get a pick. Yes it is possible we will still get a pick like the Cardinals did in 2014, and we did in 2013 but chances are we will not. I laid out all the facts for you. You are welcome.

[sportscoma]

should get some solid value from this draft.

[Stotle]

Their payroll was $20 million higher than the Orioles every season from 2006-2013. Until the 1950s they were the western AND southernmost team, so their historical fan base is enormous. The St. Louis metropolitan area may be a small market comparable to NY and Boston but they draw from huge swaths of the middle of the country. It isn't that I am unhappy that they draw well, it is simply they are clearly the team that belongs least amongst that list of 15 teams. They have a bigger payroll and higher attendance than every other team on the list and thus they are only a small market team by a quirk of methodology.

I guess I don't see the issue. Isn't market size in large part about opportunity for profit? True, STL appears to have made the absolute most out of their opportunity, but I don't see how that changes the fact that there are 20 teams with larger markets to tap. If Baltimore builds up a similar run of success and continues to push payroll as they benefit from playoff money, I would still argue they are deserving of access to the competitive balance picks.

[MurphDogg]

I guess I don't see the issue. Isn't market size in large part about opportunity for profit? True, STL appears to have made the absolute most out of their opportunity, but I don't see how that changes the fact that there are 20 teams with larger markets to tap. If Baltimore builds up a similar run of success and continues to push payroll as they benefit from playoff money, I would still argue they are deserving of access to the competitive balance picks.

As stated above, competitive balance picks are based on the teams with the 10 smallest market and the 10 lowest revenues. The Cardinals are presumably just inside of the 10 smallest markets but they are not one of 10 lowest revenue teams. I just think the system should be skewed more towards the smaller market teams.

KC, Tampa, Milwaukee, San Diego, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Cleveland have much more in common with one another than they do with Baltimore, St. Louis and Oakland. Baltimore and Oakland are greatly affected by nearby teams as is San Diego to a lesser extent. Oakland is unique because of its stadium situation despite its relatively large and affluent population. If you look at that list of teams, St. Louis has been (significantly) more successful on and off the field than the other 12-13 teams over the last 15 years. I agree that the Orioles ought to be in a similar boat to the Cardinals, they along with Seattle and Arizona are in a significantly better situation than the other teams that qualify for compensation picks, but St. Louis is clearly in the best situation of all 14-15.

[hoosiers]

As stated above, competitive balance picks are based on the teams with the 10 smallest market and the 10 lowest revenues. The Cardinals are presumably just inside of the 10 smallest markets but they are not one of 10 lowest revenue teams. I just think the system should be skewed more towards the smaller market teams.

KC, Tampa, Milwaukee, San Diego, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Cleveland have much more in common with one another than they do with Baltimore, St. Louis and Oakland. Baltimore and Oakland are greatly affected by nearby teams as is San Diego to a lesser extent. Oakland is unique because of its stadium situation despite its relatively large and affluent population. If you look at that list of teams, St. Louis has been (significantly) more successful on and off the field than the other 12-13 teams over the last 15 years. I agree that the Orioles ought to be in a similar boat to the Cardinals, they along with Seattle and Arizona are in a significantly better situation than the other teams that qualify for compensation picks, but St. Louis is clearly in the best situation of all 14-15.

St. Louis success has been built upon the dismal failures of divisional teams over the past 20 years including the Reds, Astros, Brewers, Pirates and Cubs. No team has had an easier path to the post-season. I think the Cubs are going to change that equation rapidly and the Pirates should be good for several more years. I think the Cards recent success will be brought down a few notches - however, there is nothing to begrudge their strong draft and development system and their strong attendance. I believe the Cards will also benefit from a new local TV contract in the next few years which should be a strong boost to their finances. I think the Cards absolutely belong in the discussion/methodology for these draft picks. Teams should not be disqualified from these picks because they are successful. It is an uphill battle going against large market teams and brief (or long) periods of success should not cause the rescinding of picks. Indeed, one could argue that the successful small market teams need those picks even more in times of success since they draft toward the bottom of each round.

[Can_of_corn]

Love the quantity there. Lets do it again next year.

Projected pool of $7,986,953.

Which is less then they spent on the '09 draft. (8.8M). Looks like they won't be able to get too fancy with the moves. I will be pleased enough with TBPA.

[weams]

I had forgotten that component, but there are still only 2-3 teams that won't get a pick. We got a pick after 2012, after all.

18 teams do not get picks.

[AdamK]

Projected pool of $7,986,953.

Which is less then they spent on the '09 draft. (8.8M). Looks like they won't be able to get too fancy with the moves. I will be pleased enough with TBPA.

8.8m was apparently too much for the 2009 draft.

[fearthenoodle]

18 teams do not get picks.

I thought context made it pretty clear I was only talking about the teams that are eligible in the first place.