Payton to get majority of starts in LF

[tim27]

I looked at his splits for thae last 3 years. He hits RHSP better than LHSP.

OPS vs LHSP

.745

OPS vs RHSP

.837

Again, this doesn't mean he can't hit left handed pitching. Look at his splits earlier in his career. Splits, bc of the much smaller sample size, or more prone to random deviation. So I really would expect Millar to exceed that performance against lefties this year.

[El Gordo]

Three year splits doesn't mean he can't hit lefties. Those things tend to even out over time, so it wouldn't be a bad bet to expect Millar to exceed his recent performance against lefties. Also, those split don't equate him to left handed batter. The intial point I objected to.

They do if a player is aging. Millar is not likly to improve his splits much at his age and his LHSP OPS of .745 is exactly the same as Huff's, a LH batter, for the past three years.

[tim27]

Sure, a .260 EqA from your left fielder isn't going to kill you dead, especially when you're getting such great production from first base, third base, designated hitter...

I'm not saying the Os are a great offensive juggernaut. But that still doesn't change the fact that Payton, imo, is more valuable in lf than Gibbons or Millar, or any of the assorted minor leaguers we have. The time to have been complaing about this move was in December.

[Leitch]

Again, this doesn't mean he can't hit left handed pitching. Look at his splits earlier in his career. Splits, bc of the much smaller sample size, or more prone to random deviation. So I really would expect Millar to exceed that performance against lefties this year.

Considering he's likely to be part of a platoon with Gibbons, you don't see looking at his splits to be terribly relevant?

[tim27]

They do if a player is aging. Millar is not likly to improve his splits much at his age and his LHSP OPS of .745 is exactly the same as Huff's, a LH batter, for the past three years.

Neither of us can say with certainity that the other is wrong. But I think I've made my point clear that I expect Millar, due to the flucuation of splits, to hit lefties better this year. I also respect your opinion that he won't. Time will tell.

[Frobby]

I don't like these statements, but I am simply not going to worry about this stuff too much. Perlozzo can have whatever initial ideas he wants. The facts on the ground are going to determine who plays. He essentially has 10 quasi-full time players for 9 spots. All it takes is one injury to any of Payton, Huff, Gibbons, Mora or Millar and suddenly the healthy guys are playing pretty much every day. And if everyone's healthy but one guy is hitting .220 and the other is hitting .290, the guy who hits better will play more.

[tim27]

Considering he's likely to be part of a platoon with Gibbons, you don't see looking at his splits to be terribly relevant?

I wouldn't platoon him. He'd be my everyday first baseman. I'm not saying his splits aren't relevant, especially in light of him being considered for a platoon, I'm saying they aren't definitive.

[Mackus]

Three year splits doesn't mean he can't hit lefties. Those things tend to even out over time, so it wouldn't be a bad bet to expect Millar to exceed his recent performance against lefties. Also, those split don't equate him to left handed batter. The intial point I objected to.

3 year splits are much more accurate than career numbers for players who are past their peak, which Millar clearly is.

And his numbers clearly show that if he was to be platooned, he would be used against RHP, so he'd be the "left-handed" part of the platoon.

[Sports Guy]

I don't like these statements, but I am simply not going to worry about this stuff too much. Perlozzo can have whatever initial ideas he wants. The facts on the ground are going to determine who plays. He essentially has 10 quasi-full time players for 9 spots. All it takes is one injury to any of Payton, Huff, Gibbons, Mora or Millar and suddenly the healthy guys are playing pretty much every day. And if everyone's healthy but one guy is hitting .220 and the other is hitting .290, the guy who hits better will play more.

You are giving Perlozzo too much credit.

[Mackus]

Neither of us can say with certainity that the other is wrong. But I think I've made my point clear that I expect Millar, due to the flucuation of splits, to hit lefties better this year. I also respect your opinion that he won't. Time will tell.

He may hit lefties better this year than he has in the past, but its incredibly unlikely that he'll hit them better than he hits righties. Its also unlikely (also not as unlikely) that he hits lefties well enough to be an everyday player. It'd be much better to platoon him with someone who hits lefties well, like Knott or Dubois. Both of whom will likely hit better against LHP than Millar this season (and Gibbons, Huff and Patterson for that matter).

[tim27]

It'd be much better to platoon him with someone who hits lefties well, like Knott or Dubois. Both of whom will likely hit better against LHP than Millar this season

What's your definition of likely?

[Mackus]

What's your definition of likely?

Having a better chance of occurring.

[Leitch]

I'm not saying the Os are a great offensive juggernaut. But that still doesn't change the fact that Payton, imo, is more valuable in lf than Gibbons or Millar, or any of the assorted minor leaguers we have. The time to have been complaing about this move was in December.

I don't see how you can come to that conclusion. Payton's bat is slightly above execrable. Payton's offensive game revolves almost entirely around batting average and decent, not great, speed. He takes nary a walk, his isolated power has been under .200 for the last 4 years, and he doesn't steal bases(and when he has, his percentages are not good). His defense is not going to make up for all of this.

This is a team that has been consistently and repeatedly killed by awful production at the corners - now that we've got Bats With Upside in camp, we're going to balk and put the highly paid tweener out there every day, crowding the usual hiding spots for the defensively challenged and keeping Knott, etc., in Norfolk.

Payton's only use on a good team is late-inning defensive replacement and short half of a platoon in CF, and for the record, the complaining about this move was definitely here in December.

[Sports Guy]

I don't see how you can come to that conclusion. Payton's bat is slightly above execrable. Payton's offensive game revolves almost entirely around batting average and decent, not great, speed. He takes nary a walk, his isolated power has been under .200 for the last 4 years, and he doesn't steal bases(and when he has, his percentages are not good). His defense is not going to make up for all of this.

This is a team that has been consistently and repeatedly killed by awful production at the corners - now that we've got Bats With Upside in camp, we're going to balk and put the highly paid tweener out there every day, crowding the usual hiding spots for the defensively challenged and keeping Knott, etc., in Norfolk.

Payton's only use on a good team is late-inning defensive replacement and short half of a platoon in CF, and for the record, the complaining about this move was definitely here in December.

No doubt...Especially since Jose Cruz Jr, a better player, signed for 1/600K.

[El Gordo]

Perlozzo has said that the first 6 guys in the order are going to be pretty much the same from day to day. Is anyone arguing that we should platoon Mora, BRob, and Huff starting opening day? I assume no one is calling for a Fahey/Tejada, Ramon/Bako or Nick/Knott platoon. So the last three guys are going to be played according to day to day match ups. Gibbons/Millar is barely a paltoon at DH. Gibbons/Payton is good in LF if you want to play Jay that much and risk injury. and suffer his defense. CPat/Payton makes a lot of sense and most likely will happen just not immediately. So it seems to me the questions are who makes the most of 150 AB, Bynum or Knott/Dubois and Bako/House. I don't see these choices as make or break for the season. Personally I think if Sam wants speed and OF defense he might do better with Yan than Bynum. Knott's and Dubois' defense is questionable as is Huff's at any position and these are legitamate concerns.