Payton to get majority of starts in LF

[DrungoHazewood]

Congrats on the first sensible post on this thread. Payton is the best option in left, notwithstanding the gnashing of teeth from those chomping at the bit to whine and criticize about something.

Defense matters. Who is a better defensive left fielder that Jay Payton on this team? Huff? NO. Gibbons? NO. Millar? NO. On top of that, Payton is going to hit for a .300 average, albeit with limited power.

Sometimes fans whine for the sake of whining, and we're seeing it here on this thread.

Wrong. Payton is a guy who's going to give us a .700-ish OPS against right handers. An average Major League left fielder had about an .810 in 2006. The Orioles will be, on average, giving up 100+ points of OPS in left field in every single game started by a right handed pitcher. Games against teams like the Red Sox or Yankees or Blue Jays it'll be even uglier. They play in a division chock full of power offensive teams anchored by huge offensive players like ARod and Manny and Vernon Wells, and the O's are willingly going into 2/3 of their games with a popgun in left.

Payton is a good fielder, but not that good.

The Orioles' roster desperately calls out for doing little things that'll close the gap with their competition. Such as playing Huff in left and Millar at first against righties. And Payton in center, Knott/Dubois in left, and Huff at 1B against lefties. Throw in a House/Gibbons DH platoon and we've got something. They'll make up 30, 40, 50 runs and give the young pitchers a chance.

Just throwing a regular lineup out there 140 times is going to cost the Baltimore Orioles wins. I don't "whine" for the sake of whining. I whine because I'm sick of idiotic decisions that lead to fewer wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't doubt that they are able to project, but it's simply illogical to claim they can project as well as major league #s. Any projection system that has more luck w minor leaguers than major leaguers I would label suspect.

And where does he play? And when?

For me, he dhs vs lh. And Payton gets more abs.

I think I need a sticky for this, since I have to refute statements like this about once a week.

But, worry, that's flat-out wrong. It's a hard thing to wrap one's mind around, but it's absolutley, positively true that once you've adjusted for league offensive levels, age, league difficulties, and park effects minor league numbers do predict future major league performance as well as past major league numbers predict future major league performance.

Of course, if you look at a 27-year old playing in an offensive paradise like High Desert in the single A Cal League, at first glance he might look like Babe Ruth. But there's a lot of air in those numbers and he'd probably translate to a pretty poor major leaguer. That's why minor league numbers get a bad rap - people don't know what they're looking at, they don't properly adjust for the differences between leagues and parks, and when the players fail to live up to utterly unrealistic expectations you see attitudes like yours.

Believe me, don't believe me, whatever... but Bill James and Pete Palmer and others first proved this 20-some years ago, and the work done since has just confirmed it.

[Fan4Life]

Is this the best proposed lineup against RH pitching?

Roberts 2b

Markakis rf

Mora 3b

Tejada ss

Huff lf

Hernandez c

Gibbons dh

Millar 1b

Patterson cf

[Hank Scorpio]

I think I need a sticky for this, since I have to refute statements like this about once a week.

But, worry, that's flat-out wrong. It's a hard thing to wrap one's mind around, but it's absolutley, positively true that once you've adjusted for league offensive levels, age, league difficulties, and park effects minor league numbers do predict future major league performance as well as past major league numbers predict future major league performance.

Of course, if you look at a 27-year old playing in an offensive paradise like High Desert in the single A Cal League, at first glance he might look like Babe Ruth. But there's a lot of air in those numbers and he'd probably translate to a pretty poor major leaguer. That's why minor league numbers get a bad rap - people don't know what they're looking at, they don't properly adjust for the differences between leagues and parks, and when the players fail to live up to utterly unrealistic expectations you see attitudes like yours.

Believe me, don't believe me, whatever... but Bill James and Pete Palmer and others first proved this 20-some years ago, and the work done since has just confirmed it.

You're slippin' Jon...

It took you a good 9 hours to refute this!!!

[Bryce]

Payton in left most of the time is the way to go. It gives the Orioles the best defensive outfield they've had in some time (yes, you have to catch the ball, too) and he might be able to fill that number 2 hole better than Mora with his ability to get the bat on the ball. And Payton's numbers will improve with the move to a much better hitter's park (especially for RHBs). This pretty much settles the lineup with Gibbons/Millar, Gomez and Bako on the bench. What they need now is a left handed bat off the bench, preferably somebody who can handle all the outfield spots, steal a base late and pinch hit. Bynum probably comes the closest of those in camp now but they probably need to do better.

What am I missing here? Please, update me on why everyone is having a fit? Payton playing LF is not a problem at all? Gibbons can't play left. He can't! He couldn't play right field without hurting himself. Millar never should play the outfield. i have no problem with Payton playing left cause he is the best option, period! Unless they go out and get a better option what are we fussing about here?

[MP]

What am I missing here? Please, update me on why everyone is having a fit? Payton playing LF is not a problem at all? Gibbons can't play left. He can't! He couldn't play right field without hurting himself. Millar never should play the outfield. i have no problem with Payton playing left cause he is the best option, period! Unless they go out and get a better option what are we fussing about here?

If the overreacting anger should be pointed anywhere, it's the FO. Sam can't polish a turd.

[Tony-OH]

Minor league statistics predict Major League production as well as Major League statistics.

No they don't. Minor League statistics give an indication of Major League production, they do not predict anything. Certain statistical categories such as K-BB ratio for hitters and K-BB and H/9 for pitchers are fairly good indicators, but don't always tell the whole story.

[NewMarketSean]

Agree with what SG said on page 1 of this thread. I am worried that Perlozzo is going to blow this season up with mis-management.

[rolliefingers]

What am I missing here? Please, update me on why everyone is having a fit? Payton playing LF is not a problem at all? Gibbons can't play left. He can't! He couldn't play right field without hurting himself. Millar never should play the outfield. i have no problem with Payton playing left cause he is the best option, period! Unless they go out and get a better option what are we fussing about here?

Did'ja READ the last four pages? We're fussing about Payton's woeful offensive numbers vs. RHPs. "Payton will get majority of ABs in LF" + "2/3 of MLB pitchers are RHPs" * "Payton sucks against RHPs" = Our collective LF OPS is likely to be not much better than last year's.

Millar is likely to be a better hitter than Payton. Payton should be the odd man out in this mix.

Payton should ALWAYS start in CF vs. LHPs, and be Patterson's pinch hitter in games he doesn't start. I also don't mind seeing him start in LF in larger parks, like OAK and SEA - you can make the argument that having the best defensive OF is important in those situations.

But in no way should Payton get "the majority" of starts in LF.

[Tony-OH]

Not sure why any of this is surprising to people.

- We had a hole at 1B ... so we signed a corner IF who is known more for his bat that his glove. (Huff) Yet we're surprised that he's going to get most of his AB's at 1B??

- We had a hole in LF ... so we spent almost $10 Mil. on an OFer. (Payton) Yet we're surprised that he's going to get most of the playing time in LF??

- Jay Gibbons is 30 years old and has really only had one healthy season since joining the Orioles ... yet we're surprised the team won't guarentee him a position or playing time??

- We trade for a player w/ no options (Bynum), take a rule V pick (Donachie) who himself is blocked by an even worse FA signing at the same position (Bako), trade for ANOTHER V pick (Guthrie) and retain a FA (Millar) who, though he performed well offensively, really isn't good defensively at any position ... yet we're surprised that guys like Penn, Knott, DuBois, House, Burres, etc. will all probably spend most of the year in Norfolk??

- Seems like this team hasn't platooned anyone since at least the early 90's when Angelos bought the team ... yet we're surprised they don't seem warm to the idea of platooning CF, LF, 1B AND DH??

Well that probably best sums it up !!!

I really don't find any of this surprising. As much as the Orioles talk about competition in order to get the depth guys to sign, there really was little chance of them making the opening day roster barring an injury.

One good thing about all that is that either Millar or Gibbons will be on the bench and that should give us better bench depth.

[rolliefingers]

One good thing about all that is that either Millar or Gibbons will be on the bench and that should give us better bench depth.

Why is that good? Millar and Gibbons are both better hitters than Payton. Why shouldn't Payton be on the bench?

[DrungoHazewood]

What am I missing here? Please, update me on why everyone is having a fit? Payton playing LF is not a problem at all? Gibbons can't play left. He can't! He couldn't play right field without hurting himself. Millar never should play the outfield. i have no problem with Payton playing left cause he is the best option, period! Unless they go out and get a better option what are we fussing about here?

This isn't hard, folks. The problem is that Payton can't hit, at least not right handed pitching. Not at a level befitting a starting left fielder.

He had a .718 OPS against righties last year, .754 for his career.

Here's the 2006 team batting rankings by left fielders:

RK	    TEAM	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS1	Boston	      162	582	101	176	34	2	36	322	105	.302	.423	.553	.9772	Colorado	162	650	125	210	48	6	38	384	125	.323	.380	.591	.9713	San Francisco	161	556	99	149	38	3	29	280	97	.268	.414	.504	.9184	Pittsburgh	162	592	103	166	29	3	36	309	112	.280	.389	.522	.9115	LA Dodgers	162	600	96	190	30	9	24	310	90	.317	.387	.517	.9036	Philadelphia	162	608	104	161	32	2	39	314	121	.265	.379	.516	.8967	Washington	162	672	120	183	42	2	46	367	96	.272	.346	.546	.8928	Seattle	      162	639	105	185	36	5	33	330	124	.290	.354	.516	.8719	Toronto   	162	635	96	196	44	2	15	289	71	.309	.395	.455	.85010	Oakland	      162	617	109	171	35	3	31	305	86	.277	.355	.494	.84911	Milwaukee	162	623	87	175	36	3	33	316	115	.281	.337	.507	.84412	Cincinnati	162	594	103	143	25	0	39	285	94	.241	.363	.480	.84313	Tampa Bay	162	647	97	191	23	16	20	306	83	.295	.344	.473	.81714	Texas	          162	604	103	165	36	5	24	283	90	.273	.341	.469	.80915	Florida	          162	626	77	167	30	2	31	294	86	.267	.339	.470	.80916	Arizona	         162	630	99	171	55	2	17	281	83	.271	.354	.446	.80017	Houston	          162	634	78	178	42	7	18	288	88	.281	.345	.454	.79918	Kansas City	162	646	102	184	44	7	16	290	94	.285	.342	.449	.79119	Atlanta	          162	577	81	162	26	5	17	249	65	.281	.352	.432	.78320	Detroit	          162	618	94	153	35	3	34	296	98	.248	.303	.479	.78221	St. Louis	161	631	112	172	32	5	20	274	60	.273	.344	.434	.77822	NY Yankees	162	609	102	172	38	3	13	255	72	.282	.360	.419	.77823	LA Angels	162	647	83	184	39	3	19	286	91	.284	.335	.442	.77724	Chicago Cubs	162	610	85	171	29	5	17	261	76	.280	.346	.428	.77425	Minnesota	162	633	74	181	24	4	17	264	78	.286	.329	.417	.74626	NY Mets	      162	605	74	151	36	4	17	246	80	.250	.330	.407	.73727	San Diego	162	665	101	183	26	12	8	257	57	.275	.340	.386	.72728	Chicago Sox	162	672	98	188	39	8	4	255	57	.280	.341	.379	.72029	Cleveland	162	652	98	168	43	3	13	256	76	.258	.311	.393	.70430	Baltimore	162	576	60	143	29	7	7	207	66	.248	.322	.359	.682

At 31 Payton won't get much better, even with the change in parks. His 2006 rate against right handers was worse than all but two teams, and his career rate is worse than all but five.

The comment has been made that he's a lot better than Fahey. Duh. Fahey heavily contributed to the worst left field situation in baseball last year. But Payton's contributions against right handers are only marginally better than the sum total of all Oriole left fielders last year, and they were abysmal.

Simply put, unless Jay Payton is a left field version of Corey Patterson with the glove (and he ain't), he's costing the Orioles wins every time he starts against a right handed pitcher.

[Tony-OH]

Why is that good? Millar and Gibbons are both better hitters than Payton. Why shouldn't Payton be on the bench?

I didn't say that this was a wise decision, I just said it means we'll have better bench depth. Personally, I would prefer a better hitter in left field. With the current personnel, I would prefer a Gibbons/Payton platoon in left.

[JTrea81]

What am I missing here? Please, update me on why everyone is having a fit? Payton playing LF is not a problem at all? Gibbons can't play left. He can't! He couldn't play right field without hurting himself. Millar never should play the outfield. i have no problem with Payton playing left cause he is the best option, period! Unless they go out and get a better option what are we fussing about here?

We are fussing about the fact that when Aubrey Huff was signed it was assumed he'd be the LFer vs. RHP and Payton would be a 4th outfielder getting 2-3 starts a week vs. LHP and to relieve the other OFs when they needed a break. Gibbons or Millar would man 1B while the other would DH. The problem is Perlozzo is too afraid (or too stubborn) to consider Huff at LF or Gibbons at 1B full time, instead giving Huff the 1B job and giving the LF job to a guy who had a .718 OPS (.320 OBP .398 SLG.) last year vs. RHP when that is clearly not his strength. Defense is great, but this lineup needs to have Millar, Gibbons and Huff in it at all times vs. RHP to be decent. Perlozzo has already handicapped the lineup and taken away it's strength - versatility by making this boneheaded decision.

Granted it's not entirely his fault because if Flanny and Duq actually had the stones to trade some pitching for a young LF solution (such as Baldelli) instead of a stopgap, he would be forced to sit Payton on the bench for the better player. They would have saved Perlozzo from himself.

[Hank Scorpio]

Simply put, unless Jay Payton is a left field version of Corey Patterson with the glove (and he ain't), he's costing the Orioles wins every time he starts against a right handed pitcher.

....and this is why I'm on board with what you're saying. I can live with average production in left field if you're getting elite defense, but to characterize Payton's defense as elite is a stretch.

Conversely, if you stick Gibbons in left field against right handers you're probably going to get god awful defense. But I guess they can only hit so many balls to left field...

I'd rather Gibbons in left rather than Huff. Something about Huff in the outfield makes me shudder.