Payton to get majority of starts in LF

[El Gordo]

Payton in left most of the time is the way to go. It gives the Orioles the best defensive outfield they've had in some time (yes, you have to catch the ball, too) and he might be able to fill that number 2 hole better than Mora with his ability to get the bat on the ball. And Payton's numbers will improve with the move to a much better hitter's park (especially for RHBs). This pretty much settles the lineup with Gibbons/Millar, Gomez and Bako on the bench. What they need now is a left handed bat off the bench, preferably somebody who can handle all the outfield spots, steal a base late and pinch hit. Bynum probably comes the closest of those in camp now but they probably need to do better.

Millar is for all intents and purposes a LH bat. That gives you two on the bench why do you need another one?

[tim27]

Payton in left most of the time is the way to go. It gives the Orioles the best defensive outfield they've had in some time (yes, you have to catch the ball, too)

That's a good point. Also, its long been noted, that lf in Camden Yards is more expansive and difficult to play than center. Millar nor Gibbons would look good out there. Would thier bats be more valuable than Payton's glove? Its at least debatable, so lets not all act as if Perlozzo doesn't have a clue.

And Payton's numbers will improve with the move to a much better hitter's park (especially for RHBs).

This occured to me the other day. It wouldn't suprise me a bit if he hit 15+ homers and drove in 70. Look at the way leaving Oakland and coming to Baltimore affected Tejada's and Hernandez's #'s. Is it optimal for a LF? No. But with his defense and speed, and theroretically improved hitting, he figures to be at least 3.5 warp this year. So hes no Brandon Fahey either.

I'm not trying to defend this move, or the ones coming in the next few weeks that will really anger everybody, I'm just saying that Perlozzo has reasons for doing this and they shouldn't be dismissed so easily.

FWIW, if I had my druthers, my lineup would look like this:

vs righties

2b Roberts

rf Markakis

ss Tejada

lf Huff

c Hernandez

dh Gibbons

3b Mora

cf Patterson

1b Millar

vs lefties

2b Roberts

3b Mora

ss Tejada

lf Huff

c Hernandez

rf Markakis

1b Millar

dh Knott/ House/Dubois

cf Payton

[tim27]

Millar is for all intents and purposes a LH bat.

This is entirely untrue. I'd like to know how you arrive at this conclusion.

[El Gordo]

You're protecting Tejada with Payton?!

This should be the lineup

2B Roberts

LF Payton

RF Markakis

SS Tejada

1B Huff

3B Mora

DH Gibbons

C Hernandez

CF Patterson

I'd switch Mora and Ramon

[vab]

Upon further review, (I really haven't thought that much about the details of this lineup before today. I guess the warm weather is getting me into baseball mode) if they're going to be sliding Payton to center vs lefties, they do need a right handed bat in left field and Millar is too much of a defensive liability out there. I think Dubois or Knott could probably handle it offensively but they still need somebody who run at least a little bit. Seems like the real problem is Millar doesn't serve much of a purpose if you're turning over 1st to Huff.

[Leitch]

This occured to me the other day. It wouldn't suprise me a bit if he hit 15+ homers and drove in 70. Look at the way leaving Oakland and coming to Baltimore affected Tejada's and Hernandez's #'s. Is it optimal for a LF? No. But with his defense and speed, and theroretically improved hitting, he figures to be at least 3.5 warp this year. So hes no Brandon Fahey either.

Why are we expecting a batting average dependent hitter in his mid thirties to improve because he left Oakland? Doesn't anyone realize he had a .250 EqA for the Red Sox in 2004? His projection is for 2.7 WARP.

The problem with the Orioles is that if they even see this at all, they shrug and say "Oh well, he isn't Brandon Fahey..."

[Leitch]

This is entirely untrue. I'd like to know how you arrive at this conclusion.

He can't hit lefties. Look at his 3-year splits. He hits righties way better.

[Hank Scorpio]

Upon further review, (I really haven't thought that much about the details of this lineup before today. I guess the warm weather is getting me into baseball mode) if they're going to be sliding Payton to center vs lefties, they do need a right handed bat in left field and Millar is too much of a defensive liability out there. I think Dubois or Knott could probably handle it offensively but they still need somebody who run at least a little bit. Seems like the real problem is Millar doesn't serve much of a purpose if you're turning over 1st to Huff.

Well... they need a right handed bat in left field unless Huff's out there and you DH the right handed bat, as Tim mentioned above.

So, I guess the question is do you feel better about Huff's 7 games worth of left field experience or Knott's glove out there.... I've never seen Knott play defense and neither has anyone on this board save for maybe a few innings this spring, so I'd say it's hard to qualify.

[rolliefingers]

Bynum at 1B?! Seriously, there's so much wrong with that on so many levels...

[Hank Scorpio]

Bynum at 1B?! Seriously, there's so much wrong with that on so many levels...

If that happens, Perlozzo will be a laughingstock somewhere other than here.

[tim27]

Why are we expecting a batting average dependent hitter in his mid thirties to improve because he left Oakland? Doesn't anyone realize he had a .250 EqA for the Red Sox in 2004? His projection is for 2.7 WARP.

The problem with the Orioles is that if they even see this at all, they shrug and say "Oh well, he isn't Brandon Fahey..."

So then I assume you also know he hit 18 hrs in 400 or so at bats in 05, w the majority of those coming in Oakland. I don't think the reasoning behind the idea that a player will put up better offensive #'s in Balt. than in Oak. is flawed. No one, I'm not at least, is arguing that he's going to morph into Manny Ramirez. This isn't some idealistic debate about offense vs. defense. All I'm proposing is that Payton getting the majority of the abs in LF, over Millar or Gibbons or Knott/House, the realistic alternatives, isn't going to end the season before it begins.

[CrazyTrain]

This is entirely untrue. I'd like to know how you arrive at this conclusion.

2005

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

vs. Left 66 142 19 35 8 0 2 8 18 22 0 1 .246 .341 .345 .687

vs. Right 129 307 38 87 20 1 7 42 36 52 0 0 .283 .361 .423 .784

2006

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

vs. Left 66 119 15 29 8 0 3 12 16 18 1 0 .244 .336 .387 .722

vs. Right 127 311 49 88 18 0 12 52 43 56 0 1 .283 .388 .457 .845

Career

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

vs. Left 477 929 125 265 62 2 28 114 118 145 1 2 .285 .368 .447 .815

vs. Right 1002 2501 358 718 169 12 98 421 268 457 5 5 .287 .365 .482 .847

While his career number vs. lefty and righty are similar the last few years this has changed.

[tim27]

He can't hit lefties. Look at his 3-year splits. He hits righties way better.

Three year splits doesn't mean he can't hit lefties. Those things tend to even out over time, so it wouldn't be a bad bet to expect Millar to exceed his recent performance against lefties. Also, those split don't equate him to left handed batter. The intial point I objected to.

[El Gordo]

This is entirely untrue. I'd like to know how you arrive at this conclusion.

I looked at his splits for thae last 3 years. He hits RHSP better than LHSP.

OPS vs LHSP

.745

OPS vs RHSP

.837

[Leitch]

So then I assume you also know he hit 18 hrs in 400 or so at bats in 05, w the majority of those coming in Oakland. I don't think the reasoning behind the idea that a player will put up better offensive #'s in Balt. than in Oak. is flawed. No one, I'm not at least, is arguing that he's going to morph into Manny Ramirez. This isn't some idealistic debate about offense vs. defense. All I'm proposing is that Payton getting the majority of the abs in LF, over Millar or Gibbons or Knott/House, the realistic alternatives, isn't going to end the season before it begins.

Sure, a .260 EqA from your left fielder isn't going to kill you dead, especially when you're getting such great production from first base, third base, designated hitter...