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So who wants Baldelli?

HoodGuy007

By HoodGuy007
in Orioles Talk

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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If you want to confine the analysis to Baldelli vs. Payton, then you have to assume replacement for the games Baldelli misses.

The more complicated question you're asking is certainly worthwhile to consider, it's just a different than the one I'm trying to address.

LOL..Why do you have to assume this? We have guys on our team and in our organization who are certainly better than replacement players.

Are you telling me that every 4th OFer in MLB is a replacement player?

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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Ray has most likely reached his ceiling (if you read the other thread with all of that analysis) and Penn may never reach his. His ceiling isn't as high as some of those pitchers in back of him namely Erbe and Beato. We need to win before 2009 so we need players that can help us do that now. If Penn isn't suitable for the 5th starter spot then he can't help us now so we might as well get someone who can. We have no one to replace Patterson and we don't have an adequate LF solution. We do have SP depth and we do have depth in the BP. Ray right now is at his highest value to the Rays and Penn is still seen as a prospect. Now is the perfect time to deal them before their value drops. I don't believe Chris Ray and Hayden Penn would help the Orioles more or equal than Rocco Baldelli would in 2007 and beyond so that's why I'd make the deal.

I don't agree at all. You say the O's have to win before 2009 and I agree. But Erbe and Beato are not likely to be in the rotation before 2009. Penn is ready for the rotation now or in the near future.

Ray has peaked. I take the performance he gave last year for the next 5 years. Thank you very much.

If you want to trade someone with value from the O's pen, trade Baez. I am glad they signed him but one of the other guys in the pen or on the farm may be able to prove they are a setup guy. Maybe Williamson. No one will be as good as Ray.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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What is short sighted is worrying about 2007. What is short sighted is worrying about one year for a team that may be lucky to be 500.

Long term, Baldelli helps us out alot more than Ray.

Penn is the wildcard obviously but still, we need top young positional talent for the future and we ain't got none.

Trade Baez for a young position player when someone else proves they can be the setup guy.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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I bet it can be done before the trade deadline if the O's want to.

Baez would have to pitch very well and we would probably have to pay some of his contract for us to get a young player with any real value.

And besides, one has nothing to do with the other.

We should trade Ray(if the right deal is there) AND Baez.

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Baroquen131 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Baroquen131

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I bet it can be done before the trade deadline if the O's want to.

No way do I see you getting the same value with the guys you mentioned (Baez, Trachsel, Wright) as compared to Ray, Penn, etc. Part of the appeal of the young guys is that they are cheap and under team control for years. And in this case, they have a heck of a lot more upside than the three vets.

Can you trade your three at the deadline? Sure. Will you get much? I doubt it.

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tim27 AAA

tim27

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Good luck with that.

Yeah, really. So we're going to trade Baez back to the Rays, a year after they got rid of him, at a inflated salary for.... whom exactly? Or any other team for that matter. Unless he ends up closing for us this year- and has a hell of a year doing it- he is virtually worthless to another team.

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geschinger Veteran All-Star

geschinger

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That is very short sighted.

Wright is likely to get hurt. Trachsel has a decent chance to be a bust. Who do you replace them with. Penn is ready. Guthrie may be a pitch short. Olson, Liz and Johnson are not ready.

The short and long term future are much better with Penn staying an O.

Baez is potentially good but he is not Ray. Ray is likely to be cheap and good for years. Baez is much better trade material if the O's wait until June.

You say it's shortsighted but then your scenario for why is by definition short sighted thinking.

Trades are risk/reward endeavors. Ray is a solid closer and Penn is a solid prospect. Baldelli is a stud if he stays healthy but of course there is a risk that he won't.

IMO it would be a no brainer to make the trade if Baldelli could be had for Penn and Ray. The risk of giving up a solid prospect like Penn is lessened somewhat based on the makeup of the O's system with guys like Olson Beato and Erbe around and 3/5 of the rotation likely to be around for a while. Ray is solid but replacing a solid closer is a lot easier than getting an impact player like Baldelli whose still got his peak years ahead of him.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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Baez would have to pitch very well and we would probably have to pay some of his contract for us to get a young player with any real value.

And besides, one has nothing to do with the other.

We should trade Ray(if the right deal is there) AND Baez.

I don't agree. The O's are building a good staff. Probably good enough to be the staff on a contending team. Ray is a key player. When Gillick came to Baltimore and built a winner, what did he do? He signed Randy Myers. The O's need a closer like Ray.

Baez is a potential closer with potential closer value. A contending team will trade someone on high value for him at the trade deadline. He is the better one to trade. If it is to a closing role, he would love it, the acquiring team would love it and the O's would benefit from it if the O's have a replacement setup guy at that time.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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Yeah, really. So we're going to trade Baez back to the Rays, a year after they got rid of him, at a inflated salary for.... whom exactly? Or any other team for that matter. Unless he ends up closing for us this year- and has a hell of a year doing it- he is virtually worthless to another team.

No one said anything about trading him back to the DRays.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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I don't agree. The O's are building a good staff. Probably good enough to be the staff on a contending team. Ray is a key player. When Gillick came to Baltimore and built a winner, what did he do? He signed Randy Myers. The O's need a closer like Ray.

Baez is a potential closer with potential closer value. A contending team will trade someone on high value for him at the trade deadline. He is the better one to trade. If it is to a closing role, he would love it, the acquiring team would love it and the O's would benefit from it if the O's have a replacement setup guy at that time.

Closers are only key on contending teams...We aren't there yet and probably won't be for a few years.

Hoey and/or Parrish are very likely to be that good by then. Both have as much, if not more, upside than Ray does.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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No way do I see you getting the same value with the guys you mentioned (Baez, Trachsel, Wright) as compared to Ray, Penn, etc. Part of the appeal of the young guys is that they are cheap and under team control for years. And in this case, they have a heck of a lot more upside than the three vets.

Can you trade your three at the deadline? Sure. Will you get much? I doubt it.

I'd rather keep Ray and Penn then trade Baez for some young position player of lesser value. Maybe Baez does not get Baldelli in trade but it gets someone good with a future.

This way you have Ray, Penn and a good young position player. The Other way you have ---an injury prone Baldelli and Baez.

I'll stick with high ceiling guys like Ray, Penn and the player that is traded for.

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