So who wants Baldelli?

[Sports Guy]

I converted WARP3 from a counting stat to a rate stat by dividing by PAs.

And like you said, Baldelli cranks out one win in every 92 PAs, while Payton's at one per 120 PAs.

That's a ratio of 0.767.

The ratio of 125 games to 162 is 0.772.

So 125 games of Baldelli yields virtually the same quantity of WARPs as does 162 games of Payton (assuming negligible changes in WARP/PA rate for either guy).

The thing you are forgetting is that you still have 37 games that can be started by another player. So, 125 games of baldelli + another player is more valuable than Payton.

[DrungoHazewood]

I wasn't kidding.

Over the course of his career, Payton has collected WARPs at a certain rate, relative to PAs (specifically, the rate is given by 30.3 / 3620). Is that rate subject to change over time? Sure, but probably neither dramatically, nor suddenly.

Same goes for Baldelli. It's certainly reasonable to assume a modest improvement over time, but I'd be highly skeptical that his win rate will change significantly all of a sudden.

They already did. Baldelli produced at a rate of 8.1 WARP3/162 games last year. I think that's reasonable for him, maybe a touch high, but he just might improve on it, too.

Payton has produced at a rate of 5.0 WARP3/162 since 2004. At his age he'd be lucky to reproduce that.

As I see it Baldelli is worth at least three wins a year over Payton, so 110 games of Baldelli + 50 of Payton is worth at least a win more than 160 of Payton.

[wildcard]

This trade goes entirely in the wrong direction for the O's in my opinion. Trading two, young, cheap, high ceiling pitchers is not smart.

If you want to trade from surplus wait until Hoey, Parrish or Bradford have established themselves as a setup guy and trade the more expensive Baez. Wait until the Penn and Olson or Guthrie are ready for the rotation then trade Wright and Trachsel.

The long term competitiveness of the O's is all about keeping the high ceiling guys and trading other guys to fill holes.

[El Gordo]

This is the problem. You think that the DRays and O's would approach it like this:

What is more important - Baldelli in CF and Dukes and Upton on the bench or in AAA with no closer and suspect SP or No Baldelli, but a spot for Dukes or Upton and a solid hometown ML closer (named Ray no less) not to mention a pitching prospect that could be a #3 or 4 in that rotation with the possibliity of being a #2 in the future.

What is more important - Payton and his .718 OPS vs. RHP and a deep bullpen with all veterans including a former closer who wants to close and a SP pitching prospect who can only be a #5 right now and has other pitchers right behind him in AAA. or Baldelli in LF for the next 5 years with a .850+ OPS and a bullpen that isn't as deep but still quite good and the former closer now gets to close and the SP you traded can be replaced with another SP in the minors, possibly in 2007.

That's how I would look at it. The O's are taking the big risk here no doubt with Baldelli's health, and I'm guessing that's the only reason they haven't made the deal. The DRays need to make a deal, otherwise they have Upton or Dukes rot in the minors or the bench and have suspect SP and no closer to protect leads.

The problem with all this is the Rays don't want Penn they wan't one of DCab, Loewen or Bedard. Mostly Loewen.

[davearm]

Do you think, if they both have 550 PA that they will produce similar WARP3s?

Obviously not. And that's not the comparison.

The comparison is 125 games of Baldelli (plus 37 games at replacement level) versus 162 games of Payton.

[davearm]

The thing you are forgetting is that you still have 37 games that can be started by another player. So, 125 games of baldelli + another player is more valuable than Payton.

By definition, a replacement-level player contributes zero wins.

[square634]

By definition, a replacement-level player contributes zero wins.

Right... and someone like Fahey is probably below replacement level. If you assume we are keeping Baldelli AND Payton, that's a different story.

[Sports Guy]

This trade goes entirely in the wrong direction for the O's in my opinion. Trading two, young, cheap, high ceiling pitchers is not smart.

.

In this instance, it is smart.

This team has 1 good, young established player. We need more young positional talent. Ray is easily replaced.

Penn, while i would hate to lose him, can be replaced within our organization if some of the other guys live up to their potential and that is before we see what we are going to get in the draft.

[El Gordo]

They already did. Baldelli produced at a rate of 8.1 WARP3/162 games last year. I think that's reasonable for him, maybe a touch high, but he just might improve on it, too.

Payton has produced at a rate of 5.0 WARP3/162 since 2004. At his age he'd be lucky to reproduce that.

As I see it Baldelli is worth at least three wins a year over Payton, so 110 games of Baldelli + 50 of Payton is worth at least a win more than 160 of Payton.

So is trading Penn and Ray or more likely Ray and Loewen worth tha extra win?

[davearm]

They already did. Baldelli produced at a rate of 8.1 WARP3/162 games last year. I think that's reasonable for him, maybe a touch high, but he just might improve on it, too.

Payton has produced at a rate of 5.0 WARP3/162 since 2004. At his age he'd be lucky to reproduce that.

As I see it Baldelli is worth at least three wins a year over Payton, so 110 games of Baldelli + 50 of Payton is worth at least a win more than 160 of Payton.

The two alternatives are:

Baldelli for 125, and replacement-level for 37 (Bynum, say).

versus

Payton for 162.

Baldelli for 125 then Payton for 37 would be better than either of the above. But I'm considering Baldelli and Payton as mutually exclusive.

[Sports Guy]

By definition, a replacement-level player contributes zero wins.

Who said anything about a replacement player?

Payton is the guy who would get the starts.

But let's say he isn't here...What about a Huff/Knott platoon in LF for the other 37 games? Are you saying that will produce zero wins?

[JTrea81]

This trade goes entirely in the wrong direction for the O's in my opinion. Trading two, young, cheap, high ceiling pitchers is not smart.

If you want to trade from surplus wait until Hoey, Parrish or Bradford have established themselves as a setup guy and trade the more expensive Baez. Wait until the Penn and Olson or Guthrie are ready for the rotation then trade Wright and Trachsel.

The long term competitiveness of the O's is all about keeping the high ceiling guys and trading other guys to fill holes.

Ray has most likely reached his ceiling (if you read the other thread with all of that analysis) and Penn may never reach his. His ceiling isn't as high as some of those pitchers in back of him namely Erbe and Beato. We need to win before 2009 so we need players that can help us do that now. If Penn isn't suitable for the 5th starter spot then he can't help us now so we might as well get someone who can. We have no one to replace Patterson and we don't have an adequate LF solution. We do have SP depth and we do have depth in the BP. Ray right now is at his highest value to the Rays and Penn is still seen as a prospect. Now is the perfect time to deal them before their value drops. I don't believe Chris Ray and Hayden Penn would help the Orioles more or equal than Rocco Baldelli would in 2007 and beyond so that's why I'd make the deal.

[wildcard]

In this instance, it is smart.

This team has 1 good, young established player. We need more young positional talent. Ray is easily replaced.

Penn, while i would hate to lose him, can be replaced within our organization if some of the other guys live up to their potential and that is before we see what we are going to get in the draft.

That is very short sighted.

Wright is likely to get hurt. Trachsel has a decent chance to be a bust. Who do you replace them with. Penn is ready. Guthrie may be a pitch short. Olson, Liz and Johnson are not ready.

The short and long term future are much better with Penn staying an O.

Baez is potentially good but he is not Ray. Ray is likely to be cheap and good for years. Baez is much better trade material if the O's wait until June.

[Sports Guy]

That is very short sighted.

Wright is likely to get hurt. Trachsel has a decent chance to be a bust. Who do you replace them with. Penn is ready. Guthrie may be a pitch short. Olson, Liz and Johnson are not ready.

The short and long tern future are much better with Penn staying a O.

Baez is potentially good but he is not Ray. Ray is likely to be cheap and good for years. Baez is much better trade material if the O's wait until June.

What is short sighted is worrying about 2007. What is short sighted is worrying about one year for a team that may be lucky to be 500.

Long term, Baldelli helps us out alot more than Ray.

Penn is the wildcard obviously but still, we need top young positional talent for the future and we ain't got none.

[davearm]

Who said anything about a replacement player?

Payton is the guy who would get the starts.

But let's say he isn't here...What about a Huff/Knott platoon in LF for the other 37 games? Are you saying that will produce zero wins?

If you want to confine the analysis to Baldelli vs. Payton, then you have to assume replacement for the games Baldelli misses.

The more complicated question you're asking is certainly worthwhile to consider, it's just a different than the one I'm trying to address.