So who wants Baldelli?

[wildcard]

Penn & Ray for Baldelli? I don't say it's a slam dunk either way, but I would do it. Baldelli has a lot of talent and upside. Of course, the injury thing is a concern. I just think Ray & Penn are more replaceable, even if they hit thier ceilings. If Baldelli hits his ceiling he's probably a superstar. A lot of objective people think he has that type of talent. He may never reach it but even then, he's a solid, young, all-around player. Ray is a solid closer. Will he be elite? I don't think so. The best projection I've ever seen for Penn was as a #2 starter but most peg him as a #3. I love the minor league numbers combined with the age that he put them up, but I gotta go with what I've seen and read. We have Olson who projects similar to Penn, and we have younger guys like Erbe & Beato with better upsides. We also have the #5 pick in the draft which COULD be used on a top college pitcher, of which there are quite a few available. Ray's loss would create a more immediate void, but the bullpen this year is probably deep enough for it not to hurt too much. I'd say Hoey or Liz stands a good chance of being a top bullpen contributor by next year, and both have closer stuff. I can see the other side too, but I think it would be worth the risk. It probably isn't a concern as it seems that a Ray/Penn package wouldn't be enough in TB's eyes.

So what you are saying is you see no value in getting to .500 or better this year. You say losing Ray would hurt and odds are that trading Penn (who you say is likely to be a #2 or #3) would definitely hurt. Olson is not ready yet. Penn is real close to a major league pitcher.

Baldelli is not the only guy out there that can help. I think this trade sets the O's back. I prefer to progress instead of taking a hit. I don't think Flanagan, Duke or Sam can afford a down turn this year.

[AgentOrange]

1. Is Ray a lights out closer?

2. Is Penn a high ceiling pitcher?

3. Are we a .500 team or better this year?

Answers

1. The stats from last year say: "No. Not yet anyway."

2. Most ojbective observers of prospects say "He's a #3."3. This is highly debatable but a lot of people still think we're a sub .500 team

I agree that we must hold onto high ceiling pitchers. I'm just not sure Penn is one. You're banking quite a bit on that .500 record this year. I'm not sure I buy the bit about the FA's but even if I do, it's not much good if you're wrong about that .500 record.

Yeah but if you have Penn as a number 3 and get another pitcher that is of number 3 calibur, we would have one of the best rotations in baseball.

[Sports Guy]

So what you are saying is you see no value in getting to .500 or better this year.

I think it is crazy for you to assume we wouldn't be 500 with Baldelli vs Ray. You can't really include Penn yet because he isn't on the team. So, who knows how much he will contribute this year?

Olson is not ready yet..

Maybe not yet but who says he won't be in June, when we will likely need to call up a 5th starter?

We can replace ray with several guys, including top young arms like Hoey or Liz.

In the meantime, Parrish, Williamson or Baez can close for us.

[wildcard]

As long as another team buys into those save totals. His contract will still be a deterrent though. You realize that no one signed him to be their closer this year? Yeah. I know you did.

Because the O's paid him after a down year and everyone else wanted him to take a cut. We will see come July.

[wildcard]

I wouldn't bet on it.

I would. Thin pitching = under .500

[tim27]

isn't there also the chance he never becomes more than a player with great potential that couldn't escape the injury bug?

Of course, that's a possibility. It happens fairly consistently. It would be hard however, to put an exact % on that. As someone earlier in the thread said, it's likely that his max value is only achieved for two or so years and the real value would be to hold onto him for that time. Of course, it's also possible we've seen the best he has.

At least, that's what I remember reading. I'm probably wrong though; those squiggly lines make it tuff for me to understand.

[DrungoHazewood]

Since we speaking about chances of this or that.. isn't there also the chance he never becomes more than a player with great potential that couldn't escape the injury bug?

Sure, you have to weigh the risks. My problem is that the O's seem to rarely take on a guy who has a 30% chance of being and MVP/30% chance of being on the DL half the time. They're much more content with players who have a 95% chance of showing up every day and cranking out a .750 OPS.

[Leitch]

Yeah but if you have Penn as a number 3 and get another pitcher that is of number 3 calibur, we would have one of the best rotations in baseball.

And you give that advantage right back by employing a scrub like Payton at LF fulltime.

[HoodGuy007]

Of course, that's a possibility. It happens fairly consistently. It would be hard however, to put an exact % on that. As someone earlier in the thread said, it's likely that his max value is only achieved for two or so years and the real value would be to hold onto him for that time. Of course, it's also possible we've seen the best he has.

At least, that's what I remember reading. I'm probably wrong though; those squiggly lines make it tuff for me to understand.

Dude, let it go.

[Leitch]

I would. Thin pitching = under .500

Lousy offense = under .500

[Sports Guy]

I would. Thin pitching = under .500

With or without Ray, we are not thin in the bullpen.

As for the rotation? Well, the average 5th starter is giving you an ERA of 5-5.25..I think Olson can do that. Hell, i think alot of guys could potentially do that.

So, trading Penn and Ray doesn't really make the pitching thin.

[AgentOrange]

And you give that advantage right back by employing a scrub like Payton at LF fulltime.

Not true, the A's can do it with a great rotation, we can too.

[HoodGuy007]

Tell that to the Houston Astros of the past few years.

This is to Leitchs comment on how lousy offense equals being below .500.

[Sports Guy]

Getting Baldelli could also allow you to trade CPat as well..Package him in a deal and get someone very good.

[wildcard]

Losing Chris Ray and putting Baez in his place and adding someone like Hoey or Birkins does not put us under .500 automatically. If anything Baldelli's offensive production gives us extra wins over Payton to make it not only a wash but a improvement. If he stays healthy and the O's get good pitching the O's will win 90 games maybe more. It all depends on the starters as we all know and the bullpen is deep enough to lose Ray. The gain from Baldelli defensively and offensively makes up for the loss of Ray if there is any downgrade to Baez. Baez had 40 saves once, don't forget. Olson or Guthrie can replace Penn as first in line if Trax or Wright falters.

Olson is clearly not ready. There is a reason the O's are not stretching Guthrie out. It might be that there think his 2nd and 3rd pitches are not good enough to be a starter.

You can't qualify Baldelli health out of the equation. He a big risk then Penn or Ray health wise.