So who wants Baldelli?

[ScottieBaseball]

It is actually pretty easy to do.

First of all, you see what Baldelli's normal production is and assume you get that for 125 games.

Then, you figure out who starts the other 37 games in LF and go from there. So, it will depend upon who starts out there(in this case, it would be Payton himself). You then, take those 2 figures and compare them against Payton alone.

Using WARP3, Baldelli was worth .5 win more than payton last year..However, WARP3 is a counting stat..In other words, his injuries hurt his WARP3 number. He accumulated a WARP3 figure of 4.4 in only 88 games and 364 ab's. Payton accumulated a WARP3 number of 3.9 in 557 abs and 142 games.

So, Baldelli is far ahead of Payton in terms of production...Probably anywhere from 3-5 wins better(if they both played a full compliment of games) and that is before you account for Baldelli getting better.

So, Baldelli for 125 games + Payton for 37 games is probably worth anywhere from 4-8 wins more than Payton for 162 games....Of coruse these numbers can vary slightly if you platoon and stuff like that but you get the idea.

Thanks, SG. I didn't know where to start but that makes sense.

In two posts I was convinced that the oft-injured Baldelli is better than Jay Payton as our everyday LF based entirely on WARP3. Someone put a bullet in my head, please.

[Moose Milligan]

Thanks, SG. I didn't know where to start but that makes sense.

In two posts I was convinced that the oft-injured Baldelli is better than Jay Payton as our everyday LF based entirely on WARP3. Someone put a bullet in my head, please.

That'll be a bullet at WARP speed

[KstateBird]

I want him, but it looks like the DRays want to fleece whoever gets their excess OFers.

Billie Beane has changed the way a lot of GMs think about trades. It's no longer about trading from an area of strength to acquire something to an area that is a weakness. Now it's about trying to 'win' the trade.

[GeorgiaBird]

Why shouldn't they be opportunistic and try to get what they want? It is no fire sale.

I think it is more likely they move Cantu for BP help, perhaps to the Mets.

[HoodGuy007]

Why shouldn't they be opportunistic and try to get what they want? It is no fire sale.

I think it is more likely they move Cantu for BP help, perhaps to the Mets.

The BP is about the only thing the Mets have over the Phillies right now... I don't expect them to trade any BP help unless they can get some SP.

[davearm]

It is actually pretty easy to do.

First of all, you see what Baldelli's normal production is and assume you get that for 125 games.

Then, you figure out who starts the other 37 games in LF and go from there. So, it will depend upon who starts out there(in this case, it would be Payton himself). You then, take those 2 figures and compare them against Payton alone.

Using WARP3, Baldelli was worth .5 win more than payton last year..However, WARP3 is a counting stat..In other words, his injuries hurt his WARP3 number. He accumulated a WARP3 figure of 4.4 in only 88 games and 364 ab's. Payton accumulated a WARP3 number of 3.9 in 557 abs and 142 games.

So, Baldelli is far ahead of Payton in terms of production...Probably anywhere from 3-5 wins better(if they both played a full compliment of games) and that is before you account for Baldelli getting better.

So, Baldelli for 125 games + Payton for 37 games is probably worth anywhere from 4-8 wins more than Payton for 162 games....Of coruse these numbers can vary slightly if you platoon and stuff like that but you get the idea.

I was thinking right along with you here with an analysis of expected WARP3 for each guy: 125 games of Baldelli vs. 162 games of Payton.

Here's my back-of-the-envelope math, using career stats:

Baldelli has generated 17.7 WARP3 in 1636 career TPA

(17.7 / 1636) x 125 x 4.5 = 6.086 WARP3 in a 125 game season

Payton has generated 30.3 WARP3 in 3620 career TPA

(30.3 / 3620) x 162 x 4.5 = 6.102 WARP3 in a 162 game season

The 37 games that Baldelli misses should be allocated to a replacement-level player that, by definition, provides zero WARP.

So it's basically a dead heat! With either option you're getting a hair over 6 wins (assuming 4.5 PA per game).

[tim27]

I was thinking right along with you here with an analysis of expected WARP3 for each guy: 125 games of Baldelli vs. 162 games of Payton.

Here's my back-of-the-envelope math, using career stats:

Baldelli has generated 17.7 WARP3 in 1636 career TPA

(17.7 / 1636) x 125 x 4.5 = 6.086 WARP3 in a 125 game season

Payton has generated 30.3 WARP3 in 3620 career TPA

(30.3 / 3620) x 162 x 4.5 = 6.102 WARP3 in a 162 game season

The 37 games that Baldelli misses should be allocated to a replacement-level player that, by definition, provides zero WARP.

So it's basically a dead heat! With either option you're getting a hair over 6 wins (assuming 4.5 PA per game).

This looks a little more heartening to us O's fans than it should, however. Taking into consideration career trajectory, Baldelli should be clearly more valuable than Payton this year, even taking into account his yearly dl visit.

[Camden_yardbird]

This guy is the next JD Drew. High potential, oft injured. The key will be getting him for the 2-3 years that he is productive. I don' t think that is this year, and I think athough he would help us he would cost too much. Maybe taking another crack at him at the end of the year when TB says enough and his value drops.

[DrungoHazewood]

I was thinking right along with you here with an analysis of expected WARP3 for each guy: 125 games of Baldelli vs. 162 games of Payton.

Here's my back-of-the-envelope math, using career stats:

Baldelli has generated 17.7 WARP3 in 1636 career TPA

(17.7 / 1636) x 125 x 4.5 = 6.086 WARP3 in a 125 game season

Payton has generated 30.3 WARP3 in 3620 career TPA

(30.3 / 3620) x 162 x 4.5 = 6.102 WARP3 in a 162 game season

The 37 games that Baldelli misses should be allocated to a replacement-level player that, by definition, provides zero WARP.

So it's basically a dead heat! With either option you're getting a hair over 6 wins (assuming 4.5 PA per game).

I'm sure you're being a little toungue-in-cheek, and realize that Payton is 34 and on the slope towards retirement, while Baldelli is 25 and his career totals are heavily slanted by being a MLB regular at 21 and 22. When Payton was Baldelli's age he had zero major league at bats. Baldelli has 1500 and he missed a year.

[Sports Guy]

I was thinking right along with you here with an analysis of expected WARP3 for each guy: 125 games of Baldelli vs. 162 games of Payton.

Here's my back-of-the-envelope math, using career stats:

Baldelli has generated 17.7 WARP3 in 1636 career TPA

(17.7 / 1636) x 125 x 4.5 = 6.086 WARP3 in a 125 game season

Payton has generated 30.3 WARP3 in 3620 career TPA

(30.3 / 3620) x 162 x 4.5 = 6.102 WARP3 in a 162 game season

The 37 games that Baldelli misses should be allocated to a replacement-level player that, by definition, provides zero WARP.

So it's basically a dead heat! With either option you're getting a hair over 6 wins (assuming 4.5 PA per game).

The problem is, as i said, is that WARP3 is a counting stat and because Baldelli has missed so much time, his WARP3 is not as high as it should be.

If Baldelli and Payton both played in 145 games and got 550 ab's, Baldelli would be worth 3-5 more wins than Payton and that is before you take into account Baldelli getting better and Payton getting worse.

If you look at it by plate appearance, Baldelli averages one win every 92 PA while Payton averages one win every 120 plate appearances.

[DrungoHazewood]

The problem is, as i said, is that WARP3 is a counting stat and because Baldelli has missed so much time, his WARP3 is not as high as it should be.

If Baldelli and Payton both played in 145 games and got 550 ab's, Baldelli would be worth 3-5 more wins than Payton and that is before you take into account Baldelli getting better and Payton getting worse.

If you look at it by plate appearance, Baldelli averages one win every 92 PA while Payton averages one win every 120 plate appearances.

I think he was kidding. Or at least I hope so.

[davearm]

I think he was kidding. Or at least I hope so.

I wasn't kidding.

Over the course of his career, Payton has collected WARPs at a certain rate, relative to PAs (specifically, the rate is given by 30.3 / 3620). Is that rate subject to change over time? Sure, but probably neither dramatically, nor suddenly.

Same goes for Baldelli. It's certainly reasonable to assume a modest improvement over time, but I'd be highly skeptical that his win rate will change significantly all of a sudden.

[JTrea81]

I want him, but it looks like the DRays want to fleece whoever gets their excess OFers.

Billie Beane has changed the way a lot of GMs think about trades. It's no longer about trading from an area of strength to acquire something to an area that is a weakness. Now it's about trying to 'win' the trade.

This is the problem. You think that the DRays and O's would approach it like this:

What is more important - Baldelli in CF and Dukes and Upton on the bench or in AAA with no closer and suspect SP or No Baldelli, but a spot for Dukes or Upton and a solid hometown ML closer (named Ray no less) not to mention a pitching prospect that could be a #3 or 4 in that rotation with the possibliity of being a #2 in the future.

What is more important - Payton and his .718 OPS vs. RHP and a deep bullpen with all veterans including a former closer who wants to close and a SP pitching prospect who can only be a #5 right now and has other pitchers right behind him in AAA. or Baldelli in LF for the next 5 years with a .850+ OPS and a bullpen that isn't as deep but still quite good and the former closer now gets to close and the SP you traded can be replaced with another SP in the minors, possibly in 2007.

That's how I would look at it. The O's are taking the big risk here no doubt with Baldelli's health, and I'm guessing that's the only reason they haven't made the deal. The DRays need to make a deal, otherwise they have Upton or Dukes rot in the minors or the bench and have suspect SP and no closer to protect leads.

[davearm]

The problem is, as i said, is that WARP3 is a counting stat and because Baldelli has missed so much time, his WARP3 is not as high as it should be.

If Baldelli and Payton both played in 145 games and got 550 ab's, Baldelli would be worth 3-5 more wins than Payton and that is before you take into account Baldelli getting better and Payton getting worse.

If you look at it by plate appearance, Baldelli averages one win every 92 PA while Payton averages one win every 120 plate appearances.

I converted WARP3 from a counting stat to a rate stat by dividing by PAs.

And like you said, Baldelli cranks out one win in every 92 PAs, while Payton's at one per 120 PAs.

That's a ratio of 0.767.

The ratio of 125 games to 162 is 0.772.

So 125 games of Baldelli yields virtually the same quantity of WARPs as does 162 games of Payton (assuming negligible changes in WARP/PA rate for either guy).

[Sports Guy]

I wasn't kidding.

Over the course of his career, Payton has collected WARPs at a certain rate, relative to PAs (specifically, the rate is given by 30.3 / 3620). Is that rate subject to change over time? Sure, but probably neither dramatically, nor suddenly.

Same goes for Baldelli. It's certainly reasonable to assume a modest improvement over time, but I'd be highly skeptical that his win rate will change significantly all of a sudden.

Do you think, if they both have 550 PA that they will produce similar WARP3s?