This is A Mess (Mega RANT Thread)

[CA-ORIOLE]

Just this offseason we saw the Athletics, who had the best run differential in baseball last year, trade MVP candidate Donaldson for Lawrie and three prospects.

The deals I discussed included getting back three non-prospects (Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Jackie Bradley, Jr.) and two prospects (Matt Wisler and Hunter Renfroe), one of which is ready to help this year.

This isn't taking an all-star and selling him off for rebuilding pieces. It's using both buying and selling to try and redistribute risk and upside across short term and long term trajectories.

If I had said Baltimore should trade Adam Jones for Michael Kopech, Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, and Sam Travis, you'd have a great point -- that's potentially a value win for Baltimore but would make no sense for Baltimore in terms of winning in the short term.

That hasn't worked out to so well for the A's this year and Donaldson was considered a problem child.

[Pickles]

That hasn't worked out to so well for the A's this year and Donaldson was considered a problem child.

Stotle will rightly point out their run differential isn't bad.

However, I think there's a psychological effect to trading your best player; one that hasn't been appreciated enough here imo. You just won 96 games, and you trade your long-term "face of the franchise", and you think their won't be a backlash to that among the players?

These guys aren't pieces on a chessboard.

[Satyr3206]

I'll go back to the original post that said this is a mess. After 15 years of ineptitude, I'll take the mess.

[wildcard]

I think the disconnect is you seem to think looking for future production necessarily means someone doesn't care about present production. What's curious is you accuse me of being obsessed with future production at the expense of current production and conveniently ignore I proposed trading Harvey/Sisco/international money for one year of Upton.

Again, look at the team I put on paper and tell me with a straight face that at the start of the season you think that is a markedly worse team than the club the O's started with.

I don't honestly know what you are trying to accomplish with the trades.

You traded two All-Star players from the O's in Jones and Britton that are under team control for 4 years and you replace them with a one year rental in Upton that the O's can't possible resignand a guy that was basically run out for Tampa for non performance in Myers. The O's can't even talk Jones on to the DL when he is injured and Myers spent 70 games on the DL last year. I see no upside to the organization here. It cost the O's years of production from proven players.

Then you switch around prospects. Bradley has over 500 PA in the majors and an average below the Mendoza line, a 7th rounder and a 1st rounder. From the O's you take a 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder. I don't know SD prospects well so you may know what you are doing here for the future but prospects are prospects until they become productive major leaguers.

Overall the O's are loser over the next four years in this deal. I don't think the O's would make the trades you did. And I would not either.

My honest assessment. Sorry.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Stotle will rightly point out their run differential isn't bad.

However, I think there's a psychological effect to trading your best player; one that hasn't been appreciated enough here imo. You just won 96 games, and you trade your long-term "face of the franchise", and you think their won't be a backlash to that among the players?

These guys aren't pieces on a chessboard.

It's been touched on a few times but yeah. Not to mention the fallout if it went to crap. If you're going to do it it has to be convincing. In this case, I'm just not seeing it, though I do appreciate Stotle taking the time to lay out specifics.

[Tryptamine]

I don't honestly know what you are trying to accomplish with the trades.

You traded two All-Star players from the O's in Jones and Britton that are under team control for 4 years and you replace them with a one year rental in Upton that the O's can't possible resignand a guy that was basically run out for Tampa for non performance in Myers. The O's can't even talk Jones on to the DL when he is injured and Myers spent 70 games on the DL last year. I see no upside to the organization here. It cost the O's years of production from proven players.

Then you switch around prospects. Bradley has over 500 PA in the majors and an average below the Mendoza line, a 7th rounder and a 1st rounder. From the O's you take a 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder. I don't know SD prospects well so you may know what you are doing here for the future but prospects are prospects until they become productive major leaguers.

Overall the O's are loser over the next four years in this deal. I don't think the O's would make the trades you did. And I would not either.

My honest assessment. Sorry.

This just isn't true at all.

[wildcard]

This just isn't true at all.

Details? Enlighten me.

While it is far too early to write Myers off, I think it's probably fair to say that the last couple of years have provided some legitimate reasons for concern. Even throwing out all the data that happened after the wrist injury, the lack of power and low contact rates are a problematic combination. As mentioned, this is was the set of problems that doomed Smoak, as well as Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown, both of whom were similarly ranked as low-risk hitting prospects.

There's certainly still upside with Myers, but there's probably more risk there than was previously acknowledged. Perhaps the Rays might eventually regret selling low on Myers coming off a wasted season, but at this point, I might be more inclined to believe that the Royals saw this coming and sold high on Myers two winters ago in a trade that I crushed them for making at the time.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/wil-myers-flaws-trade-rays-royals-padres-121714

As the article states, the Rays sold low on Myers because of his lack of power and contact rate before the wrist injury showed risk that he will never met expectations. Two well run organizations (Royals and Rays) have sold him. There are reasons.

[Tryptamine]

In 2013 he put up an .832OPS as a 22 year old rookie. in 2014 he got off to a slow start and then broke his wrist. Wrist injuries notoriously take 6 to 12 months for power to return. He then proceeds to post a .786OPS this year before getting injured again. In 2013 he was on pace for a 4.4fWAR, in 2015 if he was playing LF/RF, like he would be for every other team in the league, he would have been on pace for a 2.5-3.5fWAR season. That's hardly performance that gets you chased out of town.

[wildcard]

In 2013 he put up an .832OPS as a 22 year old rookie. in 2014 he got off to a slow start and then broke his wrist. Wrist injuries notoriously take 6 to 12 months for power to return. He then proceeds to post a .786OPS this year before getting injured again. In 2013 he was on pace for a 4.4fWAR, in 2015 if he was playing LF/RF, like he would be for every other team in the league, he would have been on pace for a 2.5-3.5fWAR season. That's hardly performance that gets you chased out of town.

The fact remains. He has been sold by two well run teams. The Rays sold low on Myers. That is where the run out of town comment comes from. They didn't value him highly.

[Phantom]

A lot of dope smoking going on in this thread. Trade Jones and Britton? That's a non starter right there.

We can't sell this stock. It's way too high!

[Redskins Rick]

The fact remains. He has been sold by two well run teams. The Rays sold low on Myers. That is where the run out of town comment comes from. They didn't value him highly.

WC,

Spot on, for sure.

I totally agree.

[Stotle]

I don't honestly know what you are trying to accomplish with the trades.

You traded two All-Star players from the O's in Jones and Britton that are under team control for 4 years and you replace them with a one year rental in Upton that the O's can't possible resignand a guy that was basically run out for Tampa for non performance in Myers. The O's can't even talk Jones on to the DL when he is injured and Myers spent 70 games on the DL last year. I see no upside to the organization here. It cost the O's years of production from proven players.

Then you switch around prospects. Bradley has over 500 PA in the majors and an average below the Mendoza line, a 7th rounder and a 1st rounder. From the O's you take a 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder. I don't know SD prospects well so you may know what you are doing here for the future but prospects are prospects until they become productive major leaguers.

Overall the O's are loser over the next four years in this deal. I don't think the O's would make the trades you did. And I would not either.

My honest assessment. Sorry.

No need to apologize. I do think your assessment is off in a number of ways, and your "O's are losers for four years with this deal" doesn't make any sense whatsoever. But I can also tell you made your mind up before even giving any substantive thoughts to the merits of the deals -- trading Jones/Britton is a non-starter for you and no amount of reasoning will change that (which, again, is fine if those are untouchables in your mind). Just point out a couple things:

1. Re: JBJ -- This is at worst a placeholder CF with the deal as much about moving Bud Norris as acquiring JBJ (though I consider him a decent buy low target). $8MM of payroll freed-up for Baltimore.

2. Re: Upton -- Moving Jones/Britton/Norris frees up a total of $25 MM. Baltimore has also acquired Wisler as a stand-in for Chen in 2016, making Chen expendable if you want to cut costs further, so his $4.75 MM can be considered off the books and available for 2016. If you let Davis walk that's another $12 MM coming off the books. If you let Wieters walk that's another $8.3 MM off the books. You honestly don't believe Baltimore could afford to sign Upton with an aggregate of $50 MM coming off the books between the proposed 2015 trades and free agents? I just don't buy that. Especially when the trades have landed you (potentially) a cost controlled OF trio of Myers, Renfroe, and JBJ, and set up a rotation in 2016 that includes:

Jimenez ($12.25 MM), Tillman (~$6.5-7.0 MM), Gonzalez (~$4.5 MM), Gausman (pre-arb), Wisler (pre-arb), for a total of around $25 MM.

Heck, I'd say it's a foregone conclusion you have the money you need to lock up Manny long term during the off-season, sign Upton, and maybe even make a run at another substantive free agent if you really wanted to (though I don't think you need to). If Hamels is available you can make a run at him via trade (though he becomes less appealing by that point since this year was a big value -- production/$ -- year for his contract; I think if you don't trade for him in 2015 he probably isn't worth the risk from 2016-2019).

I like Jones and Britton. As I said to Drungo, this proposal isn't ideal. It's just the best I could come up with in trying to make the roster a little more flexible and the 25-man and system a little better set-up for future success (by adding talent with the potential to be impactful and the ability to help out quickly at league minimum prices). I think you are going way over the top as far as this reshuffling setting the team back, unless you truly believe Jones is the difference between this team being a competitor and being hopelessly unable to compete (hopefully we can all agree that a closer is valuable but really doesn't swing the needle much in the grand scheme?).

[Stotle]

WC,

Spot on, for sure.

I totally agree.

You guys realize Tampa traded him for these two, right?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossjo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=turner000tre

Don't knock yourselves over patting each other on the back for your analysis of Myers' value...

[Redskins Rick]

You guys realize Tampa traded him for these two, right?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossjo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=turner000tre

Don't knock yourselves over patting each other on the back for your analysis of Myers' value...

No worries, no patting back here, for sure.

Sorry, not sold on Myer's value, that's all.

[wildcard]

No need to apologize. I do think your assessment is off in a number of ways, and your "O's are losers for four years with this deal" doesn't make any sense whatsoever. But I can also tell you made your mind up before even giving any substantive thoughts to the merits of the deals -- trading Jones/Britton is a non-starter for you and no amount of reasoning will change that (which, again, is fine if those are untouchables in your mind). Just point out a couple things:

1. Re: JBJ -- This is at worst a placeholder CF with the deal as much about moving Bud Norris as acquiring JBJ (though I consider him a decent buy low target). $8MM of payroll freed-up for Baltimore.

2. Re: Upton -- Moving Jones/Britton/Norris frees up a total of $25 MM. Baltimore has also acquired Wisler as a stand-in for Chen in 2016, making Chen expendable if you want to cut costs further, so his $4.75 MM can be considered off the books and available for 2016. If you let Davis walk that's another $12 MM coming off the books. If you let Wieters walk that's another $8.3 MM off the books. You honestly don't believe Baltimore could afford to sign Upton with an aggregate of $50 MM coming off the books between the proposed 2015 trades and free agents? I just don't buy that. Especially when the trades have landed you (potentially) a cost controlled OF trio of Myers, Renfroe, and JBJ, and set up a rotation in 2016 that includes:

Jimenez ($12.25 MM), Tillman (~$6.5-7.0 MM), Gonzalez (~$4.5 MM), Gausman (pre-arb), Wisler (pre-arb), for a total of around $25 MM.

Heck, I'd say it's a foregone conclusion you have the money you need to lock up Manny long term during the off-season, sign Upton, and maybe even make a run at another substantive free agent if you really wanted to (though I don't think you need to). If Hamels is available you can make a run at him via trade (though he becomes less appealing by that point since this year was a big value -- production/$ -- year for his contract; I think if you don't trade for him in 2015 he probably isn't worth the risk from 2016-2019).

I like Jones and Britton. As I said to Drungo, this proposal isn't ideal. It's just the best I could come up with in trying to make the roster a little more flexible and the 25-man and system a little better set-up for future success (by adding talent with the potential to be impactful and the ability to help out quickly at league minimum prices). I think you are going way over the top as far as this reshuffling setting the team back, unless you truly believe Jones is the difference between this team being a competitor and being hopelessly unable to compete (hopefully we can all agree that a closer is valuable but really doesn't swing the needle much in the grand scheme?).

MLBTR has Justin Upton as the #1 free agent this off season. I have seen estimates of 10/200M. The O's need a corner outfielder but they will not even bid on a player with a contract that high. What does Buck say? "We have to know who we are."

As far as getting money off the books, the O's have 8 free agents. plus Matusz who is a non tender candidate, plus five guys they have traded or released that are costing them money. The total is about 60M per year. So the O's don't need to trade two All-Star players in Jones and Britton to clear money.