We have a plus 25 run differential?

[25 Nuggets]

The AL has gone 152-125 against the NL this year. That's .549 ball, meaning an 81-win team against all AL competition would be something like a 89 win team against NL competition. You could argue that the O's would be about .500, or maybe a tad better had they been playing an NL-centric schedule. Or the Phils would be playing roughly .333 ball in the AL.

But their Pythag W-L in the NL East, hoo boy...

[Frobby]

Worst three losses

15-2 Minnesota

11-2 Toronto

10-2 Toronto

-30

Best three wins

19-3 Philadelphia

18-2 Oakland

18-7 Boston

+43

That's a 13 run difference. Take away those games and the Orioles would have a +12 run differential.

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I think that's a fair way to look at it. It still suggests we should be slightly above .500. But we haven't won the close ones. It's convenient to pin that on certain players who didn't return in 2015, but we had a lousy record in one-run games in 2013, too (20-31).

Personally, I feel the main issue is that we've been playing from behind too often due to our poor starting pitching. Its tougher to come back in a close game than it is to protect a lead in a close game.

[mrpennybags]

The Orioles have been 'unlucky' in terms of run differential translating into wins but they've been 'lucky' in terms of their hitting and pitching production translating into that run differential. They've been out-OPSed by their opponents .740 to .727; they're a legit mediocre AL team this year.

[weams]

The Orioles have been 'unlucky' in terms of run differential translating into wins but they've been 'lucky' in terms of their hitting and pitching production translating into that run differential. They've been out-OPSed by their opponents .740 to .727; they're a legit mediocre AL team this year.

You mean we manufactured more runs than the average bear this year? Wow.

[Frobby]

You mean we manufactured more runs than the average bear this year? Wow.

It's because we are doing well in RISP situations: .279/.341/.445, 4th in BA and OPS.

[CanadianOriole]

Our ERA is exactly league average, our OPS is .001 above league average, and our Defensive Efficiency is also .001 above league average.

[DrungoHazewood]

Our ERA is exactly league average, our OPS is .001 above league average, and our Defensive Efficiency is also .001 above league average.

Then it's down to sequencing. Or WPA. Or whatever you want to call timing to max/minimize impact.

[DrungoHazewood]

It's because we are doing well in RISP situations: .279/.341/.445, 4th in BA and OPS.

Is that really the measure you're looking for? I've heard that the most important thing in RISP situations is the ability to choke up and punch the ball to right field.

[waroriole]

Is that really the measure you're looking for? I've heard that the most important thing in RISP situations is the ability to choke up and punch the ball to right field.

Harold Reynolds? Is that you?

[DrungoHazewood]

Harold Reynolds? Is that you?

Hey, if it worked in 1907 it's still valid today. It's called scientific baseball. Because science says it's right.