Possible Solutions to the Wieters problem

[mdbdotcom]

I put together what could be an opening day roster that keeps the payroll under $120mm. I think the goal of this team should be to play .500 ball through June and hope that Mancini and a starting pitcher (Wilson?) are ready to emerge from the minors. It's also possible, if we are out of it, that Wieters and Britton get traded for prospects at the deadline.

This isn't great, but it's not as bleak as I thought it might be when I started.

Vs. RHP

LF Aoki (FA)

3B Machado

1B Lind (Trade)

CF Jones

C Wieters

2B Schoop

SS Hardy

DH Clevenger

RF Alvarez

Vs. LHP

LF Reimold

3B Machado

CF Jones

DH Wieters

2B Schoop

SS Hardy

C Joseph

1B Walker

RF Alvarez

Rotation

Gausman

Tillman

Jimenez

Gonzalez

Happ (FA)

Bullpen

Britton

Givens

Brach

Wright

Bundy

McFarland

Worley

Other bullpen options

Oliver Drake

Jason Garcia

Steve Johnson

Using MLBTR's estimates for FA contracts and ARB salaries, this comes in at about $116.5mm.

I think the lineup vs. RHP is pretty good. Whether or not they can score runs vs. LHP will depend a lot of Hardy, Walker, and Alvarez, three huge question marks. Still, with the minor leagues and the budget in their current states, I'd just as soon play the rookies as sign a bunch of fading, overpaid veterans.

The starting pitching is not inspiring, but if Gausman and Tillman can give us 6 innings and the others can give us five, the bullpen should be able to carry the weight.

[Aristotelian]

I put together what could be an opening day roster that keeps the payroll under $120mm. I think the goal of this team should be to play .500 ball through June and hope that Mancini and a starting pitcher (Wilson?) are ready to emerge from the minors. It's also possible, if we are out of it, that Wieters and Britton get traded for prospects at the deadline.

This isn't great, but it's not as bleak as I thought it might be when I started.

I appreciate what you are trying to do but we are looking at the same rotation as last year with Happ replacing Chen. Milwaukee would have to cooperate by giving us Lind, in the best case scenario costing us a prospect better than Davies to get a full year of Lind. Even if we do that, that is a massive downgrade from Davis. Hard to see that roster playing .500 when you have a bunch of clear downgrades from last year's team. The good thing is that the guys you have targeted (except for Happ) will only commit us for the year, so we can fully rebuild around Manny and the 2016 draft class.

[Es4M11]

Outside of a full on rebuild, I can't support DD making any more trades. DD is on a bad losing streak right now with some questionable decisions, and I don't necessarily trust him to make the right decisions going forward. Personally, I would prefer the team sit back and retain what few assets we have left, make whatever middling signings in FA the budget allows for and hope for the best. Assuming the team is out of it at the deadline, I would look to move Britton for as best a prospect haul as could be had. I am prepared to write off the 2016 season.

[mdbdotcom]

I appreciate what you are trying to do but we are looking at the same rotation as last year with Happ replacing Chen. Milwaukee would have to cooperate by giving us Lind, in the best case scenario costing us a prospect better than Davies to get a full year of Lind. Even if we do that, that is a massive downgrade from Davis. Hard to see that roster playing .500 when you have a bunch of clear downgrades from last year's team. The good thing is that the guys you have targeted (except for Happ) will only commit us for the year, so we can fully rebuild around Manny and the 2016 draft class.

Keep in mind that when you say the same rotation as last year, you are also saying the same rotation as 2014, which was one of the best in the league.

I don't know what we would have to give up to get Lind. It might not be possible.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Keep in mind that when you say the same rotation as last year, you are also saying the same rotation as 2014, which was one of the best in the league.

I don't know what we would have to give up to get Lind. It might not be possible.

David Stephan Norris is a FA.

[Babypowder]

"Hi Matt, it's Buck. I need you to but several first basemen's mitts in the offseason. Oh, you wanted to catch? That's nice. Caleb is a better catcher than you are."

"Problem" solved.

That just moves the problem to first base, where you'll now be paying 16 million to a player who will almost certainly be below replacement level.

[OriolesMagic83]

I think the "solution" to this "problem" is using Clevenger to limit Matt's exposure to righties a bit and keep him fresh, which should in turn help to facilitate another QO opportunity next off season for that sweet, sweet #draftpickcompensation. Plus this allows us to try to package Joseph in a deal to fill a hole elsewhere or something.

Personally, BTW, I'm just fine with him accepting the QO this year because I never had any delusions of signing Davis or a similarly-priced top-tier FA.

Why is everyone so desperate to trade Joseph? He's one of the best defensive/game calling catchers in the game.

In a year, Weiters will be gone, and the O's will be w/o a catcher again if Joseph is traded.

Joseph reminds me of Dempsey. Just a hardnosed tough guy who has done great w/ our pitching staff, and he hits about average for a ML catcher. I think he's going to have a long career.

The earliest I could see Cisco making it to the majors is sometime in 2017, and there's no consensus he can defensively handle the catching position at the major league level.

[weams]

"Hi Matt, it's Buck. I need you to but several first basemen's mitts in the offseason. Oh, you wanted to catch? That's nice. Caleb is a better catcher than you are."

"Problem" solved.

Buck wanted him Back. Problem again.

[wildcard]

I appreciate what you are trying to do but we are looking at the same rotation as last year with Happ replacing Chen. Milwaukee would have to cooperate by giving us Lind, in the best case scenario costing us a prospect better than Davies to get a full year of Lind. Even if we do that, that is a massive downgrade from Davis. Hard to see that roster playing .500 when you have a bunch of clear downgrades from last year's team. The good thing is that the guys you have targeted (except for Happ) will only commit us for the year, so we can fully rebuild around Manny and the 2016 draft class.

I have not run the numbers but I am not as down on this roster as you are. The O's need improvement from Tillman, Gausman and Gonzalez no matter who they get to replace Chen. Tillman and Gonzo need to return to what they did in 2012-2014. If they do the starters will be good.

The O's do have a few minor league pitchers that they might trade. One of Lee, Miranda, Triggs or Gunkel could be attractive to the Brewers for Lind. Its not that much different from the Davies/Parra trade.

The O's need a leadoff hitter and Aoki could be a $5m answer in left or right field.

Walker and Mancini are probably the O's best two position prospects. They should be ready to show whether they can help in ST. I am not keen on Clevenger at DH but there are other options if he does not work out. Alvarez is a question mark. I expect him and Lake to be competing for a roster spot next year. Alvarez has options and Lake doesn't. Performance will make the difference.

It is probably not the direction the O's wanted to head but with Wieters returning it might be one of the ways they may go.

[Babypowder]

I have not run the numbers but I am not as down on this roster as you are. The O's need improvement from Tillman, Gausman and Gonzalez no matter who they get to replace Chen. Tillman and Gonzo need to return to what they did in 2012-2014. If they do the starters will be good.

The O's do have a few minor league pitchers that they might trade. One of Lee, Miranda, Triggs or Gunkel could be attractive to the Brewers for Lind. Its not that much different from the Davies/Parra trade.

The O's need a leadoff hitter and Aoki could be a $5m answer in left or right field.

Walker and Mancini are probably the O's best two position prospects. They should be ready to show whether they can help in ST. I am not keen on Clevenger at DH but there are other options if he does not work out. Alvarez is a question mark. I expect him and Lake to be competing for a roster spot next year. Alvarez has options and Lake doesn't. Performance will make the difference.

It is probably not the direction the O's wanted to head but with Wieters returning it might be one of the ways they may go.

I don't think walker is a legitimate prospect in anyone's eyes but a few people on this board.

[mdbdotcom]

I don't think walker is a legitimate prospect in anyone's eyes but a few people on this board.

I don't think he is, either, but I think he might be good enough to play against LHP for three months while Mancini gets his reps at AAA.

[wildcard]

I don't think walker is a legitimate prospect in anyone's eyes but a few people on this board.

I am willing to have an open minded on Walker. He hit well in 2014 at Bowie. He had a good 2nd half last year at Norfolk. His defensive is reportedly improved. I'll be interested to see what he does in ST.

Here is what Buck says about him in a Roch article:

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2015/10/christian-walker-on-his-second-half-improvement.html