Offseason Rumors and Deals Around MLB

[warrior21]

Reality is DD and the O's front office want that #14 pick. DD can speak in circles sometimes when talking about team plans publicly, and can't always be taken at face value... But has said this off season that they are going to avoid giving up that pick this year, and he registers sincere about it to me (many things he says, I go, "RI and nd speed get you are probably right Morgan. e'll see about that," but I didn't get that impression regarding the pick).

Regardless of our feelings, and for better or worse, it looks like our offseason moves won't be for people with QOs.

This is actually a very logical argument and probably based in reality. Much more so anyway than saying "other than OBP he's not much of a hitter" which is absurd to me. A hitter's job is to get on base and a good OBP indicates he is doing just that. With Davis, Manny, Jones, Wieters, School, there is plenty of power potential on this team. We need baserunners and speed. But you're probably right Morgan.

[backwardsk]

Correct. With Upton signing for 6/$133 mm with an opt-out after two years (no word yet that any of the money is deferred), Davis' contract no longer seems out of line. Some people saw Gordon's contract and added in the lack of public reports of offers to Upton or Cespedes (or Davis, other than the Orioles) and jumped to the conclusion that our offer to Davis was a huge overpay. But now, that's not nearly so clear. Still waiting to see the exact structure of Upton's deal.

I did see something last night Upton's money is not deferred, though I haven't seen whether or not it is equally distributed among the six years.

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[Tx Oriole]

I just don't think we are done with Cespedes. The White Sox figure to be in the fight to sign him, but again, I don't think we are out of it.

I would do a 1 or 2 year deal if he wants. I realize pitching is the priority, but if Cespedes signs with the Orioles, they would have the best offensive lineup in the sport.AND add a reasonable pitching arm..and look out. Agree or disagree?

I thought about that too. Would like to have him.

[ReclaimTheCrown]

As much as I'd love to pad our lineup further and Cespedes sure would look good in right, the priority for me has to be pitching at this point. Assuming there isn't a whole lot of cash left to be dedicated to free agents this year (and I can't imagine there is), I think we've just got to dedicate that to signing a Latos, Fister, etc, or two.

If we were going to get YC on a one-two year deal, it'd have to be probably 20-25 million AAV. I can't see us doing that AND throwing out another at least 10 million for a bounceback candidate pitcher. We've done as much as we can for the batting order at this point; gotta help that rotation now.

[Redskins Rick]

Personally, I have trouble believing the team still has enough reserve to sign Cespedes and add that 1-2 year deal to the current payroll, without impacting future moves that might be needed.

From a PR perspective to the fans, of course, they want the fans to believe they are still working on improving the roster.

[Just Regular]

For whatever it's worth, Cot's has Justin on their Tigers page now, and it says it is a flat 22.125 annually, so perhaps nothing like Chen's structure that makes opting out a bit of a poison pill.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/

[SilentJames]

Not at all concerned about the pick. I'd gladly sign a guy and give up a pick on a prospect I still have to pay a bonus to and maybe, just maybe in a few years can help me. As far as positional value, sure he is a CF. But Jones could get hurt. And even if he plays COF who cares what glove he wears when he's batting? He fills multiple holes for us. If not him, they need to swing a trade and still get a starter somehow. I'd sign him.

you should worry about the pick. The Orioles minor league system is not in a very great shape right now. Some of that has been rough injury luck, some of that is due recent success in the majors, either way it can not be ignored.

[Fla_O'sfan]

The fact that Upton (and Davis) got the contract he did proves that there were more than a couple teams after his services. The same goes for Cespedes. While the Orioles seem to feel some need to make their offers public, these other teams negotiate quietly. I guarantee there are more teams involved with Cespedes than just the White Sox and Orioles, and to be honest, the Orioles are likely done doling out big money.

[Tx Oriole]

Personally, I have trouble believing the team still has enough reserve to sign Cespedes and add that 1-2 year deal to the current payroll, without impacting future moves that might be needed.

From a PR perspective to the fans, of course, they want the fans to believe they are still working on improving the roster.

Well if they don't add an outfielder and pitching then the CD contract is a waste.

IMO

[scanfish]

Baltimore Orioles Give Him another offer and sign him right now disagree

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[Bradysburns]

you should worry about the pick. The Orioles minor league system is not in a very great shape right now. Some of that has been rough injury luck, some of that is due recent success in the majors, either way it can not be ignored.

I wonder how much we should be worried about that pick. Theoretically, you are 100% correct. But given our horrid track record with taking pitchers early... and flaming out on them... I dunno. I think that pick is about as valuable as your development system makes it. So a #15 pick to a great farm system is 10 times more valuable than a #15 to a consistently lame to mediocre farm system.

That said, I get it - the pick is still valuable. We've developed Schoop, Britton, Wieters, Manny... so it's not like we've struck out across the board at all.

[btownoriole]

At a 4% discount rate Upton's contract is worth just under $116M compared to 126.8M for Davis. However, there is value in the opt-out that I'm not smart enough to calculate.

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[Redskins Rick]

Well if they don't add an outfielder and pitching then the CD contract is a waste.

IMO

So Kym isn't an outfielder?

I suspect we will see Davis play some OF, and Trumbo some at 1st.

Are we better now, than last season's start with Snider, De Aza and Jones in the OF?

[warrior21]

you should worry about the pick. The Orioles minor league system is not in a very great shape right now. Some of that has been rough injury luck, some of that is due recent success in the majors, either way it can not be ignored.

A team can always stock up the farm system through trades... And do so a lot quicker than the draft. Most draftees don't pan out. And it's not just the Orioles... that's for every team. Now we certainly have a history of poor development, which is another reason I'm OK giving up the pick. That said, the Orioles have a window to compete and need a few pieces. After that they can make smart trades and replenish the farm system with multiple prospects that would be around the same level/time frame as the guy you would have taken 14th this year.

[weams]

This is actually a very logical argument and probably based in reality. Much more so anyway than saying "other than OBP he's not much of a hitter" which is absurd to me. A hitter's job is to get on base and a good OBP indicates he is doing just that. With Davis, Manny, Jones, Wieters, School, there is plenty of power potential on this team. We need baserunners and speed. But you're probably right Morgan.

I did actually say pick first. He does not have the attributes of an AL hitter since Coors. Certainly no real power. It's not like his OBP is .400.