Finding surplus value -- it isn't easy

[Can_of_corn]

Gausman yes, provided they don't continue to screw with him.

He's out of options and doesn't have anyone of lesser talent cough*Bud*cough blocking him.

This time he doesn't have any excuses, he needs to take the next step.

[Crazysilver03]

Gausman yes, provided they don't continue to screw with him.

They have already inserted him into the rotation. They are done messing with him.

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[Bmorebirds24]

That is where a productive farm system comes in handy.

2-3 WAR for 500K is a big help.

This! This! This!

I think building this farm system should be the #1 priority.

I wouldn't sign players that cost a pick. I wouldn't bring Davis back at his asking price and I would consider trading anyone who can bring a good return of young, cost efficient talent.

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[Jonesy10]

There was a piece on Fangraphs today about the biggest potential bargains of Free Agency. I believe Chen was number 5. Steve Pearce was number 2. He should be resigned no doubt. Better than average speed, plate discipline, power, and defense. He's versatile, won't cost much, and his offensive numbers were dragged down last season by an awful BABIP. His power was still there. He's hit 36 homers in his last ~680 PA's. Best case is a 2014 season, worst case scenario is last season where he's still a valuable platoon/bench option, and a realistic scenario is a 110-120ish wRC+ with good defense while playing in about 75% of the teams games. There will be many players that are not as good as him that will get payed much more. He should be resigned without a doubt.

[TheWall]

Definitely agree with resigning Pearce. He's a quality player and versatile enough to fill holes when people go down.

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[wildcard]

Cameron's idea of a bargain is kind of weird.

9/195 for Heyward

4/64 for Chen

1/8 for Pearce

In each of those cases I call that getting paid not being a bargain.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-bargains-of-the-2016-free-agent-class/

[Bmorebirds24]

Cameron's idea of at bargain is kind of weird.

9/195 for Heyward

4/64 for Chen

1/8 for Pearce

In each of those cases I call that getting paid not being a bargain.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-bargains-of-the-2016-free-agent-class/

I agree with you. That's getting paid well for each one of them guys.

I'd bring Pearce back but not at 8 mil more like 4-6?

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[hoosiers]

You can make the AM trade when you are a 60 win team.

You make the AM trade every time it is presented to you. That is what builds organizational value that can lead to a team with a multi-year run or better.

If DD had traded Chris Davis for prospects after 2013, we'd be better off today and our fortunes the past two years would not have been much different - except that we would probably have better young talent and a cheaper roster heading into 2016.

As it is, DD (as you advocate) did NOT make any AM-esque trades and I think it is fairly obvious we are worse for it in 2015 and heading into 2016 and beyond.

[Frobby]

I

You make the AM trade every time it is presented to you. That is what builds organizational value that can lead to a team with a multi-year run or better.

If DD had traded Chris Davis for prospects after 2013, we'd be better off today and our fortunes the past two years would not have been much different - except that we would probably have better young talent and a cheaper roster heading into 2016.

As it is, DD (as you advocate) did NOT make any AM-esque trades and I think it is fairly obvious we are worse for it in 2015 and heading into 2016 and beyond.

I think you are way overstating your case. Other than Tampa, I can't think of a team that regularly makes the AM trade while it is contending.

[mdbdotcom]

You make the AM trade every time it is presented to you. That is what builds organizational value that can lead to a team with a multi-year run or better.

If DD had traded Chris Davis for prospects after 2013, we'd be better off today and our fortunes the past two years would not have been much different - except that we would probably have better young talent and a cheaper roster heading into 2016.

As it is, DD (as you advocate) did NOT make any AM-esque trades and I think it is fairly obvious we are worse for it in 2015 and heading into 2016 and beyond.

It may be theoretically sound, but I don't think the players, the fans, the manager, or the owner would be in favor of this approach.

[DrungoHazewood]

It may be theoretically sound, but I don't think the players, the fans, the manager, or the owner would be in favor of this approach.

It's one thing to do it when you're Oakland or Tampa and playing in front of 8,503 fans on a Tuesday night and ownership pretty explicitly states they can't afford anyone when they start getting deep into arb or free agency. It's another when you're averaging 25,000-30,000 a home game in one of the best parks in baseball with a decent RSN and with a bit of the Nats' money, too.

[DrungoHazewood]

Cameron's idea of a bargain is kind of weird.

9/195 for Heyward

You could certainly argue that paying for 3-4 wins a year for a young guy with an established baseline of 5-6 is a bargain. Trout's contract is a huge bargain. If they could sign Manny to a deal that paid for 3-4 wins a year it would likely be a great deal.

[Roll Tide]

This! This! This!

I think building this farm system should be the #1 priority.

I wouldn't sign players that cost a pick. I wouldn't bring Davis back at his asking price and I would consider trading anyone who can bring a good return of young, cost efficient talent.

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This is fine and good when it happens. However Dumpster diving for AAAA talent hoping to get lucky is not when you actually count on those players to fill out your roster.

[Bmorebirds24]

I agree with you. I'm not a fan of the dumpster diving and just tossing things off a wall and seeing what will stick.

I thought last years offseason was poor. Extremely poor before we even started the season. I was ok with letting the guys walk if taking a strong effort to replace them. Unfortunately they walked and both had better years then any CO we played this year.

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[hoosiers]

I think you are way overstating your case. Other than Tampa, I can't think of a team that regularly makes the AM trade while it is contending.

I think you need to look at your opening paragraph. The surplus value is found in pre-FA players - especially those in their first four seasons. Trading players before season five or six to re-stock in top prospects is where the surplus value is that creates competitive teams.

I am not overstating my case. The Tampa example should be sufficient by itself. Taking that model and modifying it for a team with a larger budget is what I have been advocating for years. Teams with the best farm systems are the ones best set up to compete. It is difficult to compete and build/maintain a farm system at the same time, but we've seen what a singular focus on presenting the best 25 man roster has done to our MLB team and minor league system.