Os Sign O'Day for 4 Years - It's official

[weams]

That is part of it. There is also the fact that sidearmers tend to have severe splits. I can see why a team would not want two guys that are both vulnerable to left handed hitting in the same bullpen.

They did not. And O'Day was much more vulnerable that year and Neshek had not become uber guy again yet. Besides, he has been a free agent three times since then.

[Redskins Rick]

For crying out loud, why are we rehashing Neshek, yet again?

It wasn't until Neshek signed with the Cardinals and got his velocity up to 92 MPH, that he became the really good relief pitcher.

[weams]

People think O'Day can't regress over the next 3 years because he's a sidearmer. Has anyone looked at the history of sidearmers. I doubt that they are immune to aging.

They are not, but O'Day has been a bull. Except when that "artificial" hip acts up.

[weams]

For crying out loud, why are we rehashing Neshek, yet again?

It wasn't until Neshek signed with the Cardinals and got his velocity up to 92 MPH, that he became the really good relief pitcher.

Heck, I am still moaning about letting Logan Verrett go!

[weams]

Depends on what you call vulnerable. Are O'Day any Neshek any more vulnerable to LH hitters than your average RH reliever? Check the stats before you answer.

Actually, O'Day improved dramatically in 2013 and regressed slightly last year. More vulnerable than he is against righthanders not named Bautista.

[Redskins Rick]

Heck, I am still moaning about letting Logan Verrett go!

Who?

Just Kidding.

[LookitsPuck]

For crying out loud, why are we rehashing Neshek, yet again?

It wasn't until Neshek signed with the Cardinals and got his velocity up to 92 MPH, that he became the really good relief pitcher.

Not true.

With A's (called up nearly immediately after Duquette let him go for cash...which was still a ridiculous move considering the A's were competing against us for a Wild Card spot AND we had dead weight as far as relievers went in our bullpen):

2012

ERA: 1.37

WHIP: 0.814

H/9: 4.6

BB/9: 2.7

SO/9: 7.3

2013:

ERA: 3.35

WHIP: 1.364

H/9: 8.9

BB/9: 3.3

SO/9: 6.5

Of course he was lights out for the Cardinals in 2014 and is doing well with the Astros.

Keep in mind he was throwing in the low 90s back when the O's let him go. And he's been more effective over the last couple years due to simplifying his pitch repertoire. He's a sinker/slider/change-up guy now. I believe he abandoned his fastball and his curveball. And this started in 2013.

[Can_of_corn]

Depends on what you call vulnerable. Are O'Day any Neshek any more vulnerable to LH hitters than your average RH reliever? Check the stats before you answer.

Thankfully I don't need to check my stats.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/forecasting-pitcher-platoon-splits/

From The Book:

Among the pitchers with large platoon splits, we find that about three quarters rely largely on a slider or a non-overhand curve. Pitchers with 3/4-arm or lower (e.g., Fossum, Bradford and Reed) deliveries also tend to be found on the high-platoon split list. This also suggests that one can estimate pitcher platoon splits even better if one knows the types of pitches being thrown and the arm angle and then divides pitchers accordingly, rather than merely by handedness. Unfortunately, our data do not include pitch types, so we must proceed without exploiting this fact.

From the linked article:

found that pitchers from 1957 to 2006 with extreme platoon splits were often side-armers and, as a group, threw more sliders than curves.

If you look at the lowest arm angle chart you will see O'Day and Givens are represented. With O'Day's angle being 12 degrees lower.

[Can_of_corn]

So all sidearmers are created equal then? Hmmm. You should have checked the stats.

Does it say every anywhere?

No.

Are side arm pitchers who rely on sliders overwhelming likely to work that way? Yes.

Is there a good chance that a side arm pitcher with a slider who isn't currently exhibiting platoon splits will likely to do so in the future? Yes.

Just like when Jones and Reimold had reverse splits earlier in their careers.

[Frobby]

I don't think the dropoff between O'Day and Givens is the issue. Givens is going to be in the bullpen either way. Really, it's the ripple effect down the entire rest of the bullpen. I think the impact could be 20 runs or so, many of which will be important runs in close games.

That said, the price for O'Day will be steep and it still may be that we'd get more bang for our buck using that money as part of what it costs to bring in an above average starting pitcher or position player. Think of it this way, would you rather have Chen and O'Day, or Price and some middling reliever?

[weams]

I don't think the dropoff between O'Day and Givens is the issue. Givens is going to be in the bullpen either way. Really, it's the ripple effect down the entire rest of the bullpen. I think the impact could be 20 runs or so, many of which will be important runs in close games.

That said, the price for O'Day will be steep and it still may be that we'd get more bang for our buck using that money as part of what it costs to bring in an above average starting pitcher or position player. Think of it this way, would you rather have Chen and O'Day, or Price and some middling reliever?

Price and Oliver Drake.

[Frobby]

Not sure I follow. O'Day has given up 10 earned runs in 54 innings. Givens has not pitched with the team for the majority of the year. He will get most of O'Day's innings. 20 runs difference wold mean Givens giving up 30 runs in 54 innings.

Now let's go with your ripple down effect and say that instead of O'Day and Givens, we have Givens and Brach in those spots. Actually you are probably arguing that without O'Day, that someone like Chaz Roe, Jorge Rondon, or Oliver Drake is on the team. First of all, they won't be pitching with leads and won't be getting the highest leverage innings. But even then, you are supposing that they will be giving up about 30 runs in 54 innings. That's seems pretty drastic.

I was assuming a 2.00 ERA for O'Day over 70 IP, and a 4.50 ERA over 70 IP for whoever makes the roster at the end of our bullpen who would not be there if O'Day was here. As I said, Givens will be in our bullpen either way.

You may be right that 20 runs is too high. I don't think it is too far off the mark, though. Basically, it's four runs for every .50 differential in ERA between O'Day and whoever is added to the bullpen.

[Can_of_corn]

The idea is to put together a good bullpen. To say you wouldn't have two RH sidearmers in the same bullpen. You didn't mention exceptions. You used it as a reason for not wanting Neshek and O'Day in the same bullpen without knowing anything about their splits.

You are smarter then this.

You know that when an overwhelming amount of the evidence points in a certain direction, and you have an outlier, you regress the outlier to the mean.

It is not as if O'Day has not had an entire season with a severe platoon split.

Now since you asked me to look at the numbers let's look at O'Day's numbers.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=odayda01&year=Career&t=p

Career OPS vs

LHH- 709

RHH- 544

709-544= 165

Now Neshek

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=neshepa01&year=Career&t=p

RHB-545

LHB- 718

715-545= 173

Now it gets a bit tricky, but I am sure you are with me. Jumping over to fangraphs we have this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/platoon-splits-starting-and-relief-pitchers/

RHB vs RHRP - 689 OPS

LHB vs RHRP - 729 OPS

729-689= 40

[Going Underground]

You are smarter then this.

You know that when an overwhelming amount of the evidence points in a certain direction, and you have an outlier, you regress the outlier to the mean.

It is not as if O'Day has not had an entire season with a severe platoon split.

Now since you asked me to look at the numbers let's look at O'Day's numbers.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=odayda01&year=Career&t=p

Career OPS vs

LHH- 709

RHH- 544

709-544= 165

Now Neshek

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=neshepa01&year=Career&t=p

RHB-545

LHB- 718

715-545= 173

Now it gets a bit tricky, but I am sure you are with me. Jumping over to fangraphs we have this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/platoon-splits-starting-and-relief-pitchers/

RHB vs RHRP - 689 OPS

LHB vs RHRP - 729 OPS

729-689= 40

Neshek makes about 6.5 million a year. O'Day is younger . So Malcolm Gladwell ,what do you think that O'Day should get?

[Can_of_corn]

LOL. You are using the fact that O'Day and Neshek are dominant verses RH hitters against them. Funny stuff. Their career splits against LH batters are not bad.

You'd rather have a RH pitcher who has a .689/.729 OPS split than one who has a .486/.729 split. Hilarious.

No, I am using the fact that they have severe platoon splits to show that they have severe platoon splits.

Kimbrel is dominant verses RH hitters (460 OPS) and yet only has a 22 point platoon spilt.

But if you would like I will gladly point out that comparing the performance of a couple of the better relief pitchers in the modern offensive era to the mish-mash of every reliever from 2010 is of course going to make the current pitcher look good by comparison.

Anyone would rather have a bullpen full of O'Days and Nesheks over the 2010 version of Bud Norris.