Making "No" Sound Like "Yes"

[Number5]

Again, you're reversing what he said. This isn't what he said. He said not all this year, because he meant that he may allocate some of the 150M in signing in future years just as I pointed out in my original post. He didn't mean all paid in this year and nothing makes it seem that way. What you're inferring isn't proper use of the English language and doesn't follow sentence logic constructs. Sorry man, you're confused IMO.

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No, I am actually reading what he said. He stressed multiple times that the money will not all be available this year. Since I assume you realize that, of course, the $150 million is obviously not all available this year, and never was going to be, he is clearly talking about the money that was earmarked for Davis this year. I am amazed that we are having this conversation. No GM in history has ever gone around stressing that the entire full value of a long-term contract would not be available all in the first year. What are we talking about here?

[wildcard]

I think the O's can have a playoff team by adding Kazmir, Pedro Alvarez and an outfielder like Kim. The majority of the improvement next year is coming from Manny, Schoop and Gausman plus better seasons for Tillman and Gonzalez.

The O's are very rarely the big spenders on big FAs. I don't expect it will happen this year either. That doesn't mean they can't be a playoff team.

[El Gordo]

I think the O's can have a playoff team by adding Kazmir, Pedro Alvarez and an outfielder like Kim. The majority of the improvement next year is coming from Manny, Schoop and Gausman plus better seasons for Tillman and Gonzalez.

The O's are very rarely the big spenders on big FAs. I don't expect it will happen this year either. That doesn't mean they can't be a playoff team.

That would still put the payroll at about 140M.

[wildcard]

That would still put the payroll at about 140M.

Nope. They are a little under 109m right now.

Kazmir 11m in 2016 with 2m deferred. 4/55m

Pedro 6M in 2016. 3/20

Kim 3m in 2016. 3/10

That put them at 129m. They could actually get a little lower by backloading more.

[beantownrefugee]

I posted in the Fanfest thread, but I'll re-post here, since I was the one who asked the question to Dan.

I asked Dan whether the ownership had only approved the monies specifically for Chris Davis, or whether if Davis did not accept the offer, those monies would be put to use signing other players. Weams, I may have missed it, but I didn't hear Dan say that the monies wouldn't be spent on just one player. I was actually heartened to hear that the monies would be spent. Dan seemed to indicate that not tying up all of those monies in one player provides the team with flexibility in the out years.

As a side note, the O's staffers who walk around with the microphone ask you what you intend to ask. When I told him, he wanted me to leave out the part about ownership. Good grief. I ignored this. Didn't make sense in the context of the question. I said to Dan, IMO I feel you've made a generous offer to Chris Davis. I understand that Chris Davis is a favorite of Mr. Angelos. Has ownership approved that increase in payroll ONLY for Chris Davis, or if he doesn't sign with the Orioles, has ownership approved those monies for signing other players?

[Number5]

Available doesn't equal paid. You keep assuming it does. I believe DD clearly meant the Orioles aren't likely to make a commitment of $150M this year, not a payment of $150M. He never ever says anything about payment in relation to this year. You have interjected all of that yourself, again unless I'm missing something. If I am, please paste the text and I will read it and apologize for being dense.

I'm done discussing this other than to say that I honestly can't even begin to follow what you're trying to say from what I've read and heard. It just isn't there. I think you're worked up over a misinterpretation. Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel very confident I'm not. Have a good night.

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Fine. Hopefully, we sign Davis. If that doesn't happen and we instead sign Upton or Gordon, that would show that I misinterpreted what DD has been saying today. If, on the other hand, we end up with Alvarez, Pearce, or Venable as our top hitter signed, I think that would speak clearly to the amount of money allocated. In any case, of course, there will need to be a SP and another less expensive bat added.

[El Gordo]

Nope. They are a little under 109m right now.

Kazmir 11m in 2016 with 2m deferred. 4/55m

Pedro 6M in 2016. 3/20

Kim 3m in 2016. 3/10

That put them at 129m. They could actually get a little lower by backloading more.

As soon as they sign O'Day that will be 114 M. I'd say the Kazmir figures are optimistic. Some one else will offer him more.

[VeveJones007]

I'm not sure DD would want to pay Davis $22MM/year. Perhaps he values Davis closer to $17MM per, but PA is fine floating the difference? That would explain why DD has the funds, but not quite $22MM per.

[El Gordo]

I'm not sure DD would want to pay Davis $22MM/year. Perhaps he values Davis closer to $17MM per, but PA is fine floating the difference? That would explain why DD has the funds, but not quite $22MM per.

I'm guessing the payroll has been increased to around 130M. Then if PA signed CD that would be in addition. If he didn't some of that money could be used this year in addition to the 130M, but not the entire 22M. The total 150M would be spread out over the next 8 years. So I'm guessing we may have another 20-30 M to spend on the holes we have to fill if we don't sign CD.

[wildcard]

As soon as they sign O'Day that will be 114 M. I'd say the Kazmir figures are optimistic. Some one else will offer him more.

114m does not count the deferred salary.

Jimenez 2.25

Hardy 2m

O'Day 1m

Total of deferred salaries in 2016 is 5.25m

[24fps]

114m does not count the deferred salary.

Jimenez 2.25

Hardy 2m

O'Day 1m

Total of deferred salaries in 2016 is 5.25m

Vlad?

...

[wildcard]

Vlad?

...

Vlads deferred money is added to the payroll. The rest of the deferrals are subtracted.

2016 Payroll Estimate

1) 16.3m Jones - CF

2) 15.8m Wieters - C

3) 13m Jimenez - SP1

4) 12.5m Hardy - SS

5) 9.1m Trumbo - 1B

6) 6.9m Britton - RP2

7) 6.2m Tillman - SP2

8) 6m O'Day - RP2

9) 5.9m Machado - 3B

10) 4.9m Gonzalez - SP3

11) 3.4m Matusz - RP3

12) 2.6m Worley - SP4

13) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF

14) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

15) 1.3m Reimold - LF

16) 1.1m Brach - RP4

17) .53m Gausman - SP5

18) .52m Schoop - 2B

19) .52m Joseph - BC

20) .52m Roe - RP5

21) .52m McFarland - RP6

22) .52m Paredes - DH/OF

23) .52m Hoes - RF

24) .51m Givens - RP7

25) .50M Rickard - 4th OF

26) .50m Mancini - 1B/DH

27) .50m Bundy - RP7 (DL)

Sub Total 113.66m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Minus 1M deferred from O?Day

Total 108.41m salaries to be paid in 2016

[mdbdotcom]

Putting these posts together may shed some light on Duquette's comment.

I'm guessing the payroll has been increased to around 130M. Then if PA signed CD that would be in addition. If he didn't some of that money could be used this year in addition to the 130M, but not the entire 22M. The total 150M would be spread out over the next 8 years. So I'm guessing we may have another 20-30 M to spend on the holes we have to fill if we don't sign CD.

114m does not count the deferred salary.

Jimenez 2.25

Hardy 2m

O'Day 1m

Total of deferred salaries in 2016 is 5.25m

If wildcard's math is correct...

Total 108.41m salaries to be paid in 2016

... and we assume the budget has been raised to $130M, Duquette now has about $21.5M to play with.

As El Gordo suggested, if Angelos authorized spending another $10M-20M to sign Davis (but only Davis), that would help make sense of Duquette's statement that the money for Davis may not all be there this year or spent on one player.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Not to me. Do you expect him to say I guarantee we'll spend it any way no matter what?

Exactly. Why would DD put out there that he has money to burn and its going to get spent one way or another? That weakens him in negotiations with players and agents. If he says, "we have $50M more to spend," the first thing I do as Boras is ask for $50M.

[Can_of_corn]

Exactly. Why would DD put out there that he has money to burn and its going to get spent one way or another? That weakens him in negotiations with players and agents. If he says, "we have $50M more to spend," the first thing I do as Boras is ask for $50M.

Boras would ask for 60.