Not so fast when calling Manny a 30m/yr player

[Beef Supreme]

I don't know if Beef Supreme made his point as clearly as he could have, but I think he was saying that the cut-off points used in wildcard's analysis are somewhat arbitrary and also aren't the only determinants of how a player will be valued for salary purposes. I agree with him. That said, it's clear that to this point, $30 mm/yr has only been achieved by a handful of players, all of whom when they signed their deals had achieved more elite offensive status than Manny has at this stage of his career.

Thanks Frobby. You expressed my thought more clearly than did I.

Regarding the handful of players who are making $30MM, it looks like, in the near future, the list will be growing. I heard some pundits discussing Bryce Harper's next contract being valued at $50MM per year.

[weams]

Thanks Frobby. You expressed my thought more clearly than did I.

Regarding the handful of players who are making $30MM, it looks like, in the near future, the list will be growing. I heard some pundits discussing Bryce Harper's next contract being valued at $50MM per year.

Do you think the Yankees will pay that much?

[Frobby]

Thanks Frobby. You expressed my thought more clearly than did I.

Regarding the handful of players who are making $30MM, it looks like, in the near future, the list will be growing. I heard some pundits discussing Bryce Harper's next contract being valued at $50MM per year.

Yes, I have heard that too, but not from anyone who would actually have to pay it. I do think $30 mm/yr contracts will be more common as time passes. That's just the nature of the beast. Sabathia's 7/$161 mm contract signed in the 2008-09 season has been surpassed six times since then.

[El Gordo]

Arbitration, yes. Free agency, not as much, in my opinion. Heyward would not have gotten 8/$184 mm based on BA/HR/RBI.

Hayward is good comp, when Manny is a FA at 26 he'will :have better numbers on offence and defense than Heyward. Given escalating prices 30 M is by no means a stretch.

[wildcard]

Hayward is good comp, when Manny is a FA at 26 he'will :have better numbers on offence and defense than Heyward. Given escalating prices 30 M is by no means a stretch.

Depends on what Manny does over the next three years. Do you get better? Does he regress? Does he stay healthy?

[Beef Supreme]

With Machado's beautiful swing and strong arm, I think the best question is whether he stays healthy.

[OFFNY]

With Machado's beautiful swing and strong arm, I think the best question is whether he stays healthy.

I think that this is a fair concern, even though he played the entire 2015 season injury-free. He did have surgery on each leg in back-to-back seasons in 2013 and 2014.

If Machado plays another season with no (or at least no major) injuries in 2016, then I think that we can completely put any concerns about his knees/legs holding up to bed.

[Beef Supreme]

I think that this is a fair concern, even though he played the entire 2015 season injury-free. He did have surgery on each leg in back-to-back seasons in 2013 and 2014.

If Machado plays another season with no (or at least no major) injuries in 2016, then I think that we can completely put any concerns about his knees/legs holding up to bed.

Yes, I really wasn't questioning his health. But injuries happen...

[El Gordo]

Depends on what Manny does over the next three years. Do you get better? Does he regress? Does he stay healthy?

I'm confident he will improve both with the bat and the glove. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins an MVP in the next 3 years.

[Stotle]

Thanks Frobby. You expressed my thought more clearly than did I.

Regarding the handful of players who are making $30MM, it looks like, in the near future, the list will be growing. I heard some pundits discussing Bryce Harper's next contract being valued at $50MM per year.

I don't think he gets 50, but if he his next two seasons are anything like his 2015 he'll comfortably pass 40.

[scOtt]

Arbitrary measurements, like .399 OBP, 40 HRs, 100 RBIs are not going to determine salary.

They always have. And they will continue to in the near future.

Even with the most sabermetric GMs... their owners, if they know ANYTHING about baseball, will be looking at baseball card stats. "What's this here o-b-p?"

[Beef Supreme]

Even with the most sabermetric GMs... their owners, if they know ANYTHING about baseball, will be looking at baseball card stats. "What's this here o-b-p?"

Sure, sure. But I'd bet they'd value 39HRs just as highly as 40HRs.

[Larry18]

Even with the most sabermetric GMs... their owners, if they know ANYTHING about baseball, will be looking at baseball card stats. "What's this here o-b-p?"

I think most owners look at statistical models. These are the tools they use in their other business ventures. The rise in analytics wasn't driven by GMs but by owners wanting a better return on their investment.

[winkies]

Mike Trout should still be in Arb years. So of course he shouldn't have made 30 million yet.

Correct me if I'm wrong here. Did Miggy ever reach free agency? I don't believe he did.

Pujols didn't reach free agency until his 30s.

A-Rod's contract is old news and not relevant in the current market.

Machado will hit free agency at 26.

[weams]

I think most owners look at statistical models. These are the tools they use in their other business ventures. The rise in analytics wasn't driven by GMs but by owners wanting a better return on their investment.

So you are saying that an owner won't pay more for a "Face of the Franchise" type. An Adam Jones if he had made free agency?