"Second-Tier" Free Agents

[LarryBigbie]

Assuming DD passes on the "premier" FA's as we all assume he will (Cespedes, Upton) - and CD moves along, why not go after a handful of the second tier guys that in my mind would make us a much better club? Maybe this would be too good to be true, impossible due to money, or simply not the type of team I feel it could be. Seem like reasonable moves, let me know what you guys think.

- Pedro Alvarez: Bat will play well in OPACY. DH/Spell Trumbo at 1B - replace some of the power numbers lost with a Davis departure.

- Dexter Fowler: Could he play right field? Could definitely handle it from a range standpoint, how does the arm play? Finally gives us a leadoff hitter.

- Gallardo/Fister/Latos: Add depth to the rotation, proven track records (though inconsistent).

These 3 signings could potentially leave us with a lineup along the lines of:

1. Fowler - RF

2. Kim - LF

3. Machado - 3B

4. Jones - CF

5. Wieters - C

6. Trumbo - 1B

7. Alvarez - DH

8. Schoop - 2B

9. Hardy - SS

Rotation/Pen

1. Tillman

2. Gausman

3. Gallardo/Fister/Latos

4. Gonzalez

5. Ubaldo

CL - Britton

SU - O'Day

7th - Givens

Matusz, Brach, McFarland among others

[clapdiddy]

Unfortunately, two of those signings would have us losing our first and second round draft picks (Fowler/Gallardo). I'm pretty sure that Dan wants to hold on to the #14 pick.

[Aristotelian]

If we go this route, I don't really care who we get as long as: 1) we are talking about short term contracts that won't prevent us from retooling/rebuilding in the future and 2) we don't give up our #14. I don't think these second tier guys will give us enough to make us a contender. Just looking at our rotation, I see our ceiling as about 78 wins with the team you have here, even with Fowler and Gallardo. Much prefer Latos to Gallardo and Span to Fowler if we are going this route. I would rather end up with 76 wins and keep our #14 and no long term contracts.

[waroriole]

Two strikes against Fowler:

1. Loses value moving from CF

2. Costs #14 draft pick. Same with Gallardo n

[waroriole]

If we go this route, I don't really care who we get as long as: 1) we are talking about short term contracts that won't prevent us from retooling/rebuilding in the future and 2) we don't give up our #14. I don't think these second tier guys will give us enough to make us a contender. Just looking at our rotation, I see our ceiling as about 78 wins with the team you have here, even with Fowler and Gallardo. Much prefer Latos to Gallardo and Span to Fowler if we are going this route. I would rather end up with 76 wins and keep our #14 and no long term contracts.

That's a ridiculous ceiling. We won 96 in 2014, and Davis and Cruz aren't worth 18 wins. We also didn't have Manny and Wieters for most of that season.

We were a better team than 81 wins last year.

[scanfish]

Do it right now give up your 14 pick keep the second round pick to sign Doug fister

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[Aristotelian]

That's a ridiculous ceiling. We won 96 in 2014, and Davis and Cruz aren't worth 18 wins. We also didn't have Manny and Wieters for most of that season.

We were a better team than 81 wins last year.

81 is exactly how good we were last year, and this scenario in my opinion has us about the same as last year. Chen and Gallardo are about even. Alvarez is maybe a slight upgrade over Pearce, Fowler would be a nice upgrade over Snider, but Trumbo is a big downgrade from Davis. Meanwhile, Jones, Hardy, Wieters, and O'Day are all a year older and at increased risk of injury and decline. I would be really surprised if this roster produces a winning season.

[birrman54]

It's not obvious to me how Wieters or Hardy can decline relative to what they did in 2015. Seems like there's only one direction for their value to go short term.

If, in fact, our starting catcher and shortstop combine for < 1 win, then it's going to be difficult to arrange any realistic combination of players around them to get a winning season.

Much more concerned that Tillman and Gonzalez won't bounce back or Gausman won't take a step forward than I'm worrying about Hardy,Wieters, O'day, or Jones.

[srock]

If a top tier guy is signed thus giving up the #14 pick, then I'd be all over Fowler. He helps the OBP department big time.

But if the top tier guy is Upton or Cespedes, then we don't need another OF so it won't happen.

Not interested in Fowler with the #14 attached.

[waroriole]

81 is exactly how good we were last year, and this scenario in my opinion has us about the same as last year. Chen and Gallardo are about even. Alvarez is maybe a slight upgrade over Pearce, Fowler would be a nice upgrade over Snider, but Trumbo is a big downgrade from Davis. Meanwhile, Jones, Hardy, Wieters, and O'Day are all a year older and at increased risk of injury and decline. I would be really surprised if this roster produces a winning season.

Explain 2014? Was Nelson worth 15 wins?

Don't you think there's some happenstance involved, or will a team always win exactly what they should?

[Aristotelian]

Explain 2014? Was Nelson worth 15 wins?

Don't you think there's some happenstance involved, or will a team always win exactly what they should?

Cruz and Pearce together were worth 11 or 12 wins in 2014. Hardy was still worth a couple wins in 2014 but cannot be counted on now. Plus I believe Tillman and Gonzo overachieved in 2014 and showed more of their true talent last year. So yes, I think our baseline is 15 wins less than our 2014 team.

I would love to be proven wrong but I would not sacrifice our #14 or get into any long term contracts to try and compete with second tier guys this year. If we were going to try and compete, we should have gone after one of the elite pitchers but they are all gone.

As an organization, long term we need to get younger and more talented. I am fine with plugging holes and give it a shot, just do it without compromising the long game.

[LarryBigbie]

I didn't realize a pick would be attached to Fowler - no way can you lost the 14 pick for him. Like him as a player, just not that much.

If healthy, and that's a big if, I could see Trumbo and Alvarez combining for 55-60 HR's. Just curious if anyone knows how many HR's we got out of the DH spot last year if it wasn't Davis or Wieters? Little to no OBP though, which is obviously one of our lineups biggest issues. Will be interesting to see the route DD goes, if there is a route at all.

[weams]

I would love to be proven wrong but I would not sacrifice our #14 or get into any long term contracts to try and compete with second tier guys this year.

As an organization, long term we need to get younger and more talented. I am fine with plugging holes and give it a shot, just do it without compromising the long game.

I do not want to give up our picks. I agree.

[waroriole]

Cruz and Pearce together were worth 11 or 12 wins in 2014. Hardy was still worth a couple wins in 2014 but cannot be counted on now. Plus I believe Tillman and Gonzo overachieved in 2014 and showed more of their true talent last year. So yes, I think our baseline is 15 wins less than our 2014 team.

I would love to be proven wrong but I would not sacrifice our #14 or get into any long term contracts to try and compete with second tier guys this year. If we were going to try and compete, we should have gone after one of the elite pitchers but they are all gone.

As an organization, long term we need to get younger and more talented. I am fine with plugging holes and give it a shot, just do it without compromising the long game.

That's a very pessimistic view of our SP. Tillman and Gonzo both had their worst years last year. Why is that a closer representation than previous years, which were much better?

Manny's 2014 more than made up for Pearce's decline, and Davis' improvement helps alleviate the loss of Nelson. These things are fluid, and to state that 78 wins is a ceiling is absurd.

That said, I agree with much of what you say.

[El Gordo]

Explain 2014? Was Nelson worth 15 wins?

Don't you think there's some happenstance involved, or will a team always win exactly what they should?

Our pythag was 83-79.