O's Have Contacted Upton

[abbott]

Please get Upton done.

I agree. Of Upton,Davis and Cespedes, that would be my order on baseball assessment only. Angelos needs to satisfy his customers and make 2016 better than 2015

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[DrungoHazewood]

Thank you. Giving up a #14 pick for a 1 year contract generally makes no sense. It made sense to give up our 2nd round pick for Cruz, but this year is different.

Sign Upton ... to a long term deal and then get on to the rest.

A rational assumption is that the value of a #14 pick is something like $20M. If Upton is a 4-win player, which is optimistic, a 1/8 deal plus the pick would be fair value. If he's a 3-win player the pick is worth almost as much as one year of him. I'm sure Upton would be looking for something more like 1/25. No, a one-year deal with pick attached makes little sense.

[fastball]

The trouble is all the talk about these

players and none of them are coming

To Baltimre.Tte FO and DD will not pay

for CD, Upton,Cespdes or a #3 pitcher.

The team is probably set with Trumbo

Kim and O'Day.There will be a mix of unknowns

and AAA players and nothing else

If I were young player I would look

To get out of Baltimore.

[Crazysilver03]

The trouble is all the talk about these

players and none of them are coming

To Baltimre.Tte FO and DD will not pay

for CD, Upton,Cespdes or a #3 pitcher.

The team is probably set with Trumbo

Kim and O'Day.There will be a mix of unknowns

and AAA players and nothing else

If I were young player I would look

To get out of Baltimore.

How can you say the team won't pay for CD when they have the highest offer out to him?

[Frobby]

A rational assumption is that the value of a #14 pick is something like $20M. If Upton is a 4-win player, which is optimistic, a 1/8 deal plus the pick would be fair value. If he's a 3-win player the pick is worth almost as much as one year of him. I'm sure Upton would be looking for something more like 1/25. No, a one-year deal with pick attached makes little sense.

Aren't you ignoring the comp pick we would likely get next year when Upton rejects a QO? As I recall, that pick is worth $10 mm or so by the same study you are relying on to value the #14 at $20 mm. So the net cost of the pick is $10 mm, not $20 mm. I still wouldn't want to get Upton for 1 year, but it makes it a much closer case.

[Es4M11]

Aren't you ignoring the comp pick we would likely get next year when Upton rejects a QO? As I recall, that pick is worth $10 mm or so by the same study you are relying on to value the #14 at $20 mm. So the net cost of the pick is $10 mm, not $20 mm. I still wouldn't want to get Upton for 1 year, but it makes it a much closer case.

Let's just give Upton 5-6 years, that way we aren't playing this game next off-season.

[Tx Oriole]

This team maybe complete.They

Could get CD or not.If not Trumbo

at 1st and Kim in outfield.Don't expect

more out of DD.Wish he'd go away.

Brady!!!

Oh don't be foolish. Don't you know by now it's Mr. Angelos that's calling the shots

for this team?

[Tx Oriole]

I agree. Of Upton,Davis and Cespedes, that would be my order on baseball assessment only. Angelos needs to satisfy his customers and make 2016 better than 2015

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I would love for that to happen.

[Aristotelian]

I agree. Of Upton,Davis and Cespedes, that would be my order on baseball assessment only. Angelos needs to satisfy his customers and make 2016 better than 2015

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He needs to make good investments to ensure the ability of the club to compete over the long term. If 2016 is an uphill battle, the last thing he should do is make a bunch of bad decisions to appease the fan base. For example, Davis at 7/$154M would be a huge overpay, and long term I would rather have a draft pick than Gallardo. I could be sold on Upton as a good short-term/long-term investment but prefer Cespedes.

[DrungoHazewood]

Aren't you ignoring the comp pick we would likely get next year when Upton rejects a QO? As I recall, that pick is worth $10 mm or so by the same study you are relying on to value the #14 at $20 mm. So the net cost of the pick is $10 mm, not $20 mm. I still wouldn't want to get Upton for 1 year, but it makes it a much closer case.

Don't you have to discount the odds of getting that QO decline pick? The Orioles may well be more risk averse next offseason with the Wieters situation in mind.

[DrungoHazewood]

He needs to make good investments to ensure the ability of the club to compete over the long term. If 2016 is an uphill battle, the last thing he should do is make a bunch of bad decisions to appease the fan base. For example, Davis at 7/$154M would be a huge overpay, and long term I would rather have a draft pick than Gallardo. I could be sold on Upton as a good short-term/long-term investment but prefer Cespedes.

Any term I'd rather have the draft pick than Gallardo.

[Stotle]

A rational assumption is that the value of a #14 pick is something like $20M. If Upton is a 4-win player, which is optimistic, a 1/8 deal plus the pick would be fair value. If he's a 3-win player the pick is worth almost as much as one year of him. I'm sure Upton would be looking for something more like 1/25. No, a one-year deal with pick attached makes little sense.

Aren't you comparing aggregate value of a pick vs. one year of production in 2016?

[Frobby]

Don't you have to discount the odds of getting that QO decline pick? The Orioles may well be more risk averse next offseason with the Wieters situation in mind.

I see those odds as pretty low. Wieters was coming off two seasons in which he had missed a lot of time due to injury, he hasn't yet played C on back-to-back days since returning, and he didn't have a very good season in his last full season, 2013. He's also a catcher turning 30. Upton has been a very consistent player and will be 28 this season and an outfielder.

[DrungoHazewood]

Aren't you comparing aggregate value of a pick vs. one year of production in 2016?

Yes. Yes I am. I'm sure someone will explain why that's wrong.

[eddie83]

Any term I'd rather have the draft pick than Gallardo.

What if they sign Upton, do you care if they lose their second round pick for Gallardo?