PECOTA projections

[Just Regular]

Along with the unveiling today, there was a punch pulling main article since they have the Royals projected last in the Central. Keri's tweets summarize the gist of it well, and everything they said about the Royals applies broadly to us too as the teams are constructed similarly.

Except that we don't have dedicated pinch runners I guess.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's what I'm hanging my hat on. Variance.

On paper I think the ZiPS projection of 83 wins sounds about right. That's without Gallardo and Fowler. I'm guessing those two bring the projection up to maybe 86 wins. That's good enough to roll the dice with.

That's all I ever really ask for. 85 wins on true talent and a fighting chance.

[Frobby]

On paper I think the ZiPS projection of 83 wins sounds about right.

Where is there a ZiPS projection of 83 wins? I haven't seen that. I've seen Steamer at 78 wins. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[tntoriole]

Seems that most projections show that most teams will be somewhere between 75 and 95 wins most seasons.

[Can_of_corn]

Seems that most projections show that most teams will be somewhere between 75 and 95 wins most seasons.

It isn't easy to lose or win 100.

[25 Nuggets]

Where is there a ZiPS projection of 83 wins? I haven't seen that. I've seen Steamer at 78 wins. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Heard it on the local CBS radio station (which I listen to in NC via streaming and call in occasionally). So I don't have a link, sorry. He (Dan Szymborski I believe) said ZiPS had a higher win projection than other models.

[Frobby]

"It's not that we don't care [what pundits say]. We just know that their opinion doesn't matter. It's as simple as that."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-schmuck-column-0219-20160218-column.html

[Redskins Rick]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-schmuck-column-0219-20160218-column.html

I especially like JJ's last remarks:

"We finished .500 last year and we played bad, had some injuries," Hardy said. "It's not that we don't care [what pundits say]. We just know that their opinion doesn't matter. It's as simple as that."

[weams]

[T. Legend]

Keri is saying that the Royals had significant cluster luck last year (the pattern of hits/walks on offense was frequently bunched together and on defense it was more spread out). That does not seem to be a repeatable skill based on past results.

[waroriole]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-schmuck-column-0219-20160218-column.html

Nice. I like this team a lot. They're not perfect on paper, but I think we win the division.

I like our guys.

[Number5]

Keri is saying that the Royals had significant cluster luck last year (the pattern of hits/walks on offense was frequently bunched together and on defense it was more spread out). That does not seem to be a repeatable skill based on past results.

Sorry, but this made me LMAO.

[waroriole]

Sorry, but this made me LMAO.

Are the guys who were mocking the old guard becoming the old guard?

[BohKnowsBmore]

Are the guys who were mocking the old guard becoming the old guard?

This is exactly what I posited in the Keith law top prospects thread.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Number5]

Are the guys who were mocking the old guard becoming the old guard?

LOL. I wasn't commenting on the post itself, but rather the play on words that came to mind.